Jerome D. Fast

The ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF‐Chem) version 3.7 and the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5) in simulating profiles of aerosol properties is quantified using extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements from the Two‐Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) conducted during July of 2012. TCAP was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and was designed to obtain observations within two atmospheric columns; one fixed over Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and the other several hundred kilometers over the ocean. The performance is quantified using most of the available aircraft and surface measurements during July, and 2 days are examined in more detail to identify the processes responsible for the observed aerosol layers. The higher‐resolution WRF‐Chem model produced more aerosol mass in the free troposphere than the coarser‐resolution CAM5 model so that the fraction of aerosol optical thickness above the residual layer from WRF‐Chem was more consistent with lidar measurements. We found that the free troposphere layers are likely due to mean vertical motions associated with synoptic‐scale convergence that lifts aerosols from the boundary layer. The vertical displacement and the time period associated with upward transport in the troposphere depend on the strength of the synoptic system and whether relatively high boundary layer aerosol concentrations are present where convergence occurs. While a parameterization of subgrid scale convective clouds applied in WRF‐Chem modulated the concentrations of aerosols aloft, it did not significantly change the overall altitude and depth of the layers.

We describe the synoptic and regional-scale meteorological conditions that affected the transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols in the vicinity of Sacramento, California during June 2010 when the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) was conducted. The meteorological measurements collected by various instruments deployed during the campaign and the performance of the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) are both discussed. WRF-Chem was run daily during the campaign to forecast the spatial and temporal variation of carbon monoxide emitted from 20 anthropogenic source regions in California to guide aircraft sampling. The model is shown to reproduce the overall circulations and boundary-layer characteristics in the region, although errors in the upslope wind speed and boundary-layer depth contribute to differences in the observed and simulated carbon monoxide. Thermally-driven upslope flows that transported pollutants from Sacramento over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada occurred every afternoon, except during three periods when the passage of mid-tropospheric troughs disrupted the regional-scale flow patterns. The meteorological conditions after the passage of the third trough were the most favorable for photochemistry and likely formation of secondary organic aerosols. Meteorological measurements and model forecasts indicate that the Sacramento pollutant plume was likely transported over a downwind site that collected trace gas and aerosol measurements during 23 time periods; however, direct transport occurred during only eight of these periods. The model also showed that emissions from the San Francisco Bay area transported by intrusions of marine air contributed a large fraction of the carbon monoxide in the vicinity of Sacramento, suggesting that this source likely affects local chemistry. Contributions from other sources of pollutants, such as those in the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley, were relatively low. Aerosol layering in the free troposphere was observed during the morning by an airborne Lidar. WRF-Chem forecasts showed that mountain venting processes contributed to aged pollutants aloft in the valley atmosphere that are then entrained into the growing boundary layer the subsequent day.

We describe the synoptic and regional-scale meteorological conditions that affected the transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols in the vicinity of Sacramento, California during June 2010 when the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) was conducted. The meteorological measurements collected by various instruments deployed during the campaign and the performance of the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) are both discussed. WRF-Chem was run daily during the campaign to forecast the spatial and temporal variation of carbon monoxide emitted from 20 anthropogenic source regions in California to guide aircraft sampling. The model is shown to reproduce the overall circulations and boundary-layer characteristics in the region, although errors in the upslope wind speed and boundary-layer depth contribute to differences in the observed and simulated carbon monoxide. Thermally-driven upslope flows that transported pollutants from Sacramento over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada occurred every afternoon, except during three periods when the passage of mid-tropospheric troughs disrupted the regional-scales flow patterns. The meteorological conditions after the passage of the third trough were the most favorable for photochemistry and likely formation of secondary organic aerosols. Meteorological measurements and model forecasts indicate that the Sacramento pollutant plume was likely transported over a downwind site that collected trace gas and aerosol measurements during 23 periods; however, direct transport occurred during only eight of these periods. The model also showed that emissions from the San Francisco Bay area transported by intrusions of marine air contributed a large fraction of the carbon monoxide in the vicinity of Sacramento, suggesting that this source likely affects local chemistry. Contributions from other sources of pollutants, such as those in the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley, were relatively low. Aerosol layering in the free troposphere was observed during the morning by an airborne Lidar. WF-Chem forecasts showed that mountain venting processes contributed to aged pollutants aloft in the valley atmosphere that is then entrained into the growing boundary layer the subsequent day.

Simulated primary organic aerosols (POA), as well as other particulates and trace gases, in the vicinity of Mexico City are evaluated using measurements collected during the 2006 Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO) field campaigns. Since the emission inventories, transport, and turbulent mixing will directly affect predictions of total organic matter and consequently total particulate matter, our objective is to assess the uncertainties in predicted POA before testing and evaluating the performance of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) treatments. Carbon monoxide (CO) is well simulated on most days both over the city and downwind, indicating that transport and mixing processes were usually consistent with the meteorological conditions observed during MILAGRO. Predicted and observed elemental carbon (EC) in the city was similar, but larger errors occurred at remote locations since the overall CO/EC emission ratios in the national emission inventory were lower than in the metropolitan emission inventory. Components of organic aerosols derived from Positive Matrix Factorization of data from several Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer instruments deployed both at ground sites and on research aircraft are used to evaluate the model. Modeled POA was consistently lower than the measured organic matter at the ground sites, which is consistent with the expectation that SOA should be a large fraction of the total organic matter mass. A much better agreement was found when modeled POA was compared with the sum of "primary anthropogenic" and "biomass burning" components derived from Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) on most days, especially at the surface sites, suggesting that the overall magnitude of primary organic particulates released was reasonable. However, simulated POA from anthropogenic sources was often lower than "primary anthropogenic" components derived from PMF, consistent with two recent reports that these emissions are underestimated. The modeled POA was greater than the total observed organic matter when the aircraft flew directly downwind of large fires, suggesting that biomass burning emission estimates from some large fires may be too high.

Two entirely different methods for retrieving 3D fields of horizontal winds from Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radial velocities have been evaluated using radar wind profiler measurements to determine whether routine wind retrievals would be useful for atmospheric dispersion model applications. The first method uses a physical algorithm based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and the second simpler method uses a statistical technique based on an analytic formulation of the background error covariance. Both methods can be run in near–real time, but the simpler method was executed about 2.5 times as fast as the four-dimensional variational method. The observed multiday and diurnal variations in wind speed and direction were reproduced by both methods below ∼1.5 km above the ground in the vicinity of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, during July 2003. However, wind retrievals overestimated the strength of the nighttime low-level jet by as much as 65%. The wind speeds and directions obtained from both methods were usually similar when compared with profiler measurements, and neither method outperformed the other statistically. Within a dispersion model framework, the 3D wind fields and transport patterns were often better represented when the wind retrievals were included along with operational data. Despite uncertainties in the wind speed and direction obtained from the wind retrievals that are higher than those from remote sensing radar wind profilers, the inclusion of the wind retrievals is likely to produce more realistic temporal variations in the winds aloft than would be obtained by interpolation using the available radiosondes, especially during rapidly changing synoptic- and mesoscale conditions.

We use a Lagrangian dispersion model driven by a mesoscale model with four-dimensional data assimilation to simulate the dispersion of elemental carbon (EC) over a region encompassing Mexico City and its surroundings. The region was the study domain for the 2006 MAX-MEX experiment, which was a component of the MILAGRO campaign. The results are used to identify periods when biomass burning was likely to have had a significant impact on the concentrations of elemental carbon at two sites, T1 and T2, downwind of the city, and when emissions from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) were likely to have been more important. They are also used to estimate the median ages of EC affecting the specific absorption of light, α_ABS, at 870 nm as well as to identify periods when the urban plume from the MCMA was likely to have been advected over T1 and T2. Median EC ages at T1 and T2 are substantially larger during the day than at night. Values of α_ABS at T1, the nearer of the two sites to Mexico City, were smaller at night and increased rapidly after mid-morning, peaking in the mid-afternoon. The behavior is attributed to the coating of aerosols with substances such as sulfate or organic carbon during daylight hours, but such coating appears to be limited or absent at night. Evidence for this is provided by scanning electron microscopy images of aerosols collected at the sampling sites. During daylight hours the values of α_ABS did not increase with aerosol age for median ages in the range of 1–4 h. There is some evidence for absorption increasing as aerosols were advected from T1 to T2 but the statistical significance of that result is not strong.

We describe the large-scale meteorological conditions that affected atmospheric chemistry over Mexico during March 2006 when several field campaigns were conducted in the region. In-situ and remote-sensing instrumentation was deployed to obtain measurements of wind, temperature, and humidity profiles in the boundary layer and free atmosphere at four primary sampling sites in central Mexico. Several models were run operationally during the field campaign to provide forecasts of the local, regional, and synoptic meteorology as well as the predicted location of the Mexico City pollutant plume for aircraft flight planning purposes. Field campaign measurements and large-scale analyses are used to define three regimes that characterize the overall meteorological conditions: the first regime prior to 14 March, the second regime between 14 and 23 March, and the third regime after 23 March. Mostly sunny and dry conditions with periods of cirrus and marine stratus along the coast occurred during the first regime. The beginning of the second regime was characterized by a sharp increase in humidity over the central plateau and the development of late afternoon convection associated with the passage of a weak cold surge on 14 March. Over the next several days, the atmosphere over the central plateau became drier so that deep convection gradually diminished. The third regime began with the passage of a strong cold surge that lead to humidity, afternoon convection, and precipitation over the central plateau that was higher than during the second regime. The frequency and intensity of fires, as determined by satellite measurements, also diminished significantly after the third cold surge. The synoptic-scale flow patterns that govern the transport of pollutants in the region are described and compared to previous March periods to put the transport into a climatological context. The complex terrain surrounding Mexico City produces local and regional circulations that govern short-range transport; however, the mean synoptic conditions modulate the thermally-driven circulations and on several days the near-surface flow is coupled to the ambient winds aloft.

The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility that routinely collected data from the Doppler radars can appropriately be used in Atmospheric Dispersion Models (ADMs) for emergency response. We have evaluated the computational efficiency and accuracy of two variational mathematical techniques that derive the u- and v-components of the wind from radial velocities obtained from Doppler radars. A review of the scientific literature indicated that the techniques employ significantly different approaches in applying the variational techniques: 2-D Variational (2DVar), developed by NOAA¹s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's) National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We designed a series of numerical experiments in which both models employed the same horizontal domain and resolution encompassing Oklahoma City for a two-week period during the summer of 2003 so that the computed wind retrievals could be fairly compared. Both models ran faster than real-time on a typical single dual-processor computer, indicating that they could be used to generate wind retrievals in near real-time. 2DVar executed ~2.5 times faster than VDRAS because of its simpler approach.

A new fully coupled meteorology‐chemistry‐aerosol model is used to simulate the urban‐ to regional‐scale variations in trace gases, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston over a 5 day summer period. Model performance is evaluated using a wide range of meteorological, chemistry, and particulate measurements obtained during the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study. The predicted trace gas and particulate distributions were qualitatively similar to the surface and aircraft measurements with considerable spatial variations resulting from urban, power plant, and industrial sources of primary pollutants. Sulfate, organic carbon, and other inorganics were the largest constituents of the predicted particulates. The predicted shortwave radiation was 30 to 40 W m⁻² closer to the observations when the aerosol optical properties were incorporated into the shortwave radiation scheme; however, the predicted hourly aerosol radiative forcing was still underestimated by 10 to 50 W m⁻². The predicted aerosol radiative forcing was larger over Houston and the industrial ship channel than over the rural areas, consistent with surface measurements. The differences between the observed and simulated aerosol radiative forcing resulted from transport errors, relative humidity errors in the upper convective boundary layer that affect aerosol water content, secondary organic aerosols that were not yet included in the model, and uncertainties in the primary particulate emission rates. The current model was run in a predictive mode and demonstrates the challenges of accurately simulating all of the meteorological, chemical, and aerosol parameters over urban to regional scales that can affect aerosol radiative forcing.