Xuanli Li

As a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Weather Focus Area and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation participation in the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games' (ICE-POP 2018) field research and forecast demonstration programs, hourly ocean surface meteorology properties were retrieved from the GPM microwave observations for January–March 2018. In this study, the retrieved ocean surface meteorological products – 2 m temperature, 2 m specific humidity, and 10 m wind speed – were assimilated into a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework. This explored the application of these observations for two heavy snowfall events during the ICE-POP 2018, on 27–28 February and 7–8 March 2018. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) were used to conduct high-resolution simulations and data assimilation experiments. The results indicate that the data assimilation has a large influence on surface thermodynamic and wind fields in the model initial condition for both events. With cycled data assimilation, a significantly positive influence of the retrieved surface observation was found for the March case, with improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and reduced errors in temperature forecasts. A slightly smaller yet positive impact was also found in the forecast for the February case.

In this study, a polarimetric radar forward model operator was developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that was based on a scattering algorithm using the T-matrix methodology. Three microphysics schemes—Thompson, Morrison 2-moment, and Milbrandt-Yau 2-moment—were supported in the operator. This radar forward operator used the microphysics, thermodynamic, and wind fields from WRF model forecasts to compute horizontal reflectivity, radial velocity, and polarimetric variables including differential reflectivity (Z_DR) and specific differential phase (K_DP) for S-band radar. A case study with severe convective storms was used to examine the accuracy of the radar operator. Output from the radar operator was compared to real radar observations from the Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. The results showed that the radar forward operator generated realistic polarimetric signatures. The distribution of polarimetric variables agreed well with the hydrometer properties produced by different microphysics schemes. Similar to the observed polarimetric signatures, radar operator output showed Z_DR and K_DP columns from low-to-mid troposphere, reflecting the large amount of rain within strong updrafts. The Thompson scheme produced a better simulation for the hail storm with a Z_DR hole to indicate the existence of graupel in the low troposphere.

As a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Weather Focus Area and GPM Ground Validation participation in the International Collaborative Experiments for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (ICE-POP 2018) field research and forecast demonstration programs, hourly ocean surface meteorology properties were retrieved from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) microwave observations for January – March 2018. In this study, the retrieved ocean surface meteorological products – 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, and 10-m wind speed were assimilated into a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework to explore the application of these observations for two heavy snowfall events during the ICE-POP 2018: 27–28 February, and 7–8 March 2018. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) were used to conduct high resolution simulations and data assimilation experiments. The results indicate that the data assimilation has a large influence on surface thermodynamic and wind fields in the model initial condition for both events. With cycled data assimilation, positive influence of the retrieved surface observation was found for the March case with improved quantitative precipitation forecast and reduced error in temperature forecast. A slightly smaller yet positive impact was also found in the forecast of the February case.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission consists of a multisatellite constellation that provides real‐time or near‐real‐time global observations of rain and snow. In this study, GPM Level 3 Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and Level 2 GPM Microwave Imager Goddard Profiling rainfall products have been assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model using the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system. Experiments have been conducted and compared to demonstrate the impact of rain rate data assimilation on forecasts of heavy rainfall related to Hurricane Harvey (2017) and moderate to light rainfall observed during the GPM Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment field campaign. The results indicate that both GPM Microwave Imager Goddard Profiling and IMERG data could generate apparent increments in moisture, temperature, wind, and pressure fields for Hurricane Harvey, which led to significant improvement in the precipitation forecast. Frequent (every 3 hr) assimilation of IMERG data also positively impacted the short‐term precipitation forecast skill for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment moderate to light rain events. However, results also indicate that the impact of rain data assimilation was limited for a system that had a small horizontal dimension with low rain rates and within a relatively stable synoptic environment.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016. CYGNSS provides ocean surface wind speed retrieval along specular reflection tracks at an interval resolution of approximately 25 km. With a median revisit time of 2.8 h covering a ±35° latitude, CYGNSS can provide more frequent and accurate measurements of surface wind over the tropical oceans under heavy precipitation, especially within tropical cyclone cores and deep convection regions, than traditional scatterometers. In this study, CYGNSS v2.1 Level 2 wind speed data were assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system with hybrid 3- and 4-dimensional variational ensemble technology. Case studies were conducted to examine the impact of the CYGNSS data on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) Irving and a westerly wind burst (WWB) during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event over the Indian Ocean in early January 2018. The results indicate a positive impact of the CYGNSS data on the wind field. However, the impact from the CYGNSS data decreases rapidly within 4 h after data assimilation. Also, the influence of CYGNSS data only on precipitation forecast is found to be limited. The assimilation of CYGNSS data was further explored with an additional experiment in which CYGNSS data was combined with Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) hourly precipitation and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind vector and were assimilated into the WRF model. A significant positive impact was found on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts. The short-term forecast of wind and precipitation fields were also improved for both TC Irving and the WWB event when the combined satellite data was assimilated.

In this study, an ice-phase microphysics forward model has been developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model three-dimensional variational data assimilation (WRF 3D-Var) system. Radar forward operators for reflectivity and the polarimetric variable, specific differential phase (K_DP), have been built into the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var package to allow modifications in liquid (cloud water and rain) and solid water (cloud ice and snow) fields through data assimilation. Experiments have been conducted to assimilate reflectivity and radial velocity observations collected by the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Hytop, Alabama, for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 15 March 2008. Numerical results have been examined to assess the impact of the WSR-88D data using the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var radar data assimilation package. The main goals are to first demonstrate radar data assimilation with an ice-phase microphysics forward model and second to improve understanding on how to enhance the utilization of radar data in numerical weather prediction. Results showed that the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity data using the ice-phase system provided significant improvement especially in the mid- to upper troposphere. The improved initial conditions led to apparent improvement in the short-term precipitation forecast of the MCS. An additional experiment has been conducted to explore the assimilation of K_DP data collected by the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Results showed that K_DP data have been successfully assimilated using the ice-phase 3D-Var package. A positive impact of the K_DP data has been found on rainwater in the lower troposphere and snow in the mid- to upper troposphere.

The dual-polarization (dual pol) Doppler radar can transmit/receive both horizontally and vertically polarized power returns. The dual-pol radar measurements have been shown to provide a more accurate precipitation estimate compared to traditional radars. In this study, the horizontal reflectivity Z_H, differential reflectivity Z_DR, specific differential phase K_DP, and radial velocity VR collected by the C-band Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) are assimilated for two convective storms. A warm-rain scheme is constructed to assimilate Z_H, Z_DR, and K_DP data using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). The main goals of this study are first to demonstrate and compare the impact of various dual-pol variables in initialization of real case convective storms and second to test how the dual-pol fields may be better used with a 3DVAR system.The results show that the Z_H, Z_DR, K_DP, and VR data substantially improve the initial condition for two mesoscale convective storms. Significant positive impacts on short-term forecast are obtained for both storms. Additionally, K_DP and Z_DR data assimilation is shown to be superior to Z_H and Z_DR and Z_H-only data assimilation when the warm-rain microphysics is adopted. With the ongoing upgrade of the current Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network to include dual-pol capabilities (started in early 2011), the findings from this study can be a helpful reference for utilizing the dual-pol radar data in numerical simulations of severe weather and related quantitative precipitation forecasts.

In this paper, a data assimilation scheme is built to utilize the dual‐polarization Doppler radar observations collected by the C band Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research and is tested with a case study for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) over northern Alabama in the afternoon of 15 March 2008. Three variables, horizontal reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and radial velocity are assimilated into the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A warm rain radar operator is constructed to assimilate the horizontal reflectivity and differential reflectivity data with the three‐dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. The main goals of this paper are to, first, demonstrate the improvements in short‐term forecasts of the moist convection when fields unique to the dual‐polarization radar are assimilated into a regional model and, second, to understand how these fields may best be integrated in a data assimilation system like 3DVAR to improve short‐term storm forecast. The results show that the horizontal reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and radial velocity data can be successfully assimilated using our data assimilation scheme. The assimilation of the horizontal reflectivity and radial velocity data has a significant positive impact on the reflectivity distribution of the MCS. An additional improvement (10%–20%) in the initial condition is found when the differential reflectivity data are further assimilated. Moreover, the improved initial condition leads to apparent improvement in short‐term forecast of the MCS. The best forecast is produced when both horizontal and differential reflectivity and radial velocity data are assimilated. This improvement can be attributed to the improved estimate of liquid water content by using the radar operator with combined information of both horizontal reflectivity and differential reflectivity. This study demonstrates the benefit of utilizing the observations from single dual‐polarization radar. With the forthcoming upgrade of the current U. S. “NEXRAD” radar system (set to begin in ∼2010), a dual‐polarization radar network will be available. Assimilating observations from the dual‐polarization Doppler radar network could be a potential technique to further improve the short‐term numerical forecasts of convective storms.