Tito Belchior Silva Moreira

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo trazer o debate sobre a coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas, averiguar se existe relação empírica destas políticas com a capacidade ociosa da indústria e validar a proposição dos liberais, que neste trabalho será voltada para análise dos ciclos industriais. Utiliza-se métodos econométricos para avaliar o impacto das políticas fiscal, monetária, cambial e preços relativos sobre a capacidade ociosa da indústria entre o período de 2000:3 a 2014:10. Os resultados nos mostram que as políticas fiscais e monetárias praticadas afetam positivamente a capacidade ociosa da indústria. Conclui-se também que a razão entre os salários da indústria e salários mínimos, via política monetária, afetam diretamente e indiretamente a capacidade ociosa da indústria.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of left Brazilian political parties and partisan disruption on the homicide rate in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use panel data for the states between the years 1980 and 2011. The database used is an unbalanced panel covering a sample of 27 Brazilian states over 32 years, 1980-2011, totaling about 855 observations. Findings: It is estimated that these two political factors are sources that have connection to the increased level of violence in Brazil. These analyses provide several important results. First, partisan disruption is associated with a higher homicide rate, compared to non-partisan disruption. The results from the panel also suggest that left-parties in government have a positive impact on homicide, compared to non-left-parties. Research limitations/implications: Information regarding premeditated homicides (CID-BR-9 database) is available for all Brazilian states, and may be tabulated from the same micro-data at any level of aggregation. Some of the well-known problems regarding the choice of this variable are as follows. First, deaths resulting from wounds are sometimes included in the statistics whether wounds were intentionally inflicted or not. In addition, some incidents end up not being registered because certain deaths are not reported. This tends to occur more frequently in rural areas. Fortunately, this second problem does not appear to be too significant, as under-registry of deaths due to external causes is much lower than the amount resulting from natural causes (see, e.g. Cano and Santos, 2000). In addition, this problem may be controlled if under-registry remains stable over time by applying fixed effects to the panel data. Practical implications: The main Brazilian political parties diverge on the causes of crime and how criminals should be punished. For example, in Brazil, the minimum age for one individual to be punished with imprisonment is 18 years old. Practices crimes for young people between 12 and 18 implies only in socio-educational measures. Given the high level of violence in Brazil, there is a bill being debated in the parliament that proposes to reduce the age to 16 years. Based on the research, 90 percent of the population approves the reduction of age to 16 years. However, the majority of parliament is opposed to changing the law. In general, the more conservative parties are favorable to changing the law. Social implications: These divergent postures can be associated with the ideological essence or to belief system of each political party. Political parties have the potential capacity of changing crime trends through economic and social policies as well as by applying stronger sanctions against crime. Given the law enforcement system, the cycle of crime in Brazil may be related to the profile of the political party elected. Originality/value: The authors assume the hypothesis that the current Brazilian multi-partisan system has an incentive system in which politicians do not respond adequately to the basic wishes of voters. Among such desires, the authors emphasize public safety. This paper evaluates the empirical effect of partisan disruption on homicide rate.

Este estudo tem como objetivo estimar uma função demanda por crédito para veículos no Brasil no período 2000:06 a 2012:12. Nossos resultados mostraram que essa função pode ser enquadrada dentro de um arcabouço tradicional no qual a taxa e prazo de financiamento, o preço do veículo assim como o estado da economia se apresentam como as variáveis explicativas do modelo. Mostramos ainda com base no modelo Markov Switching (MS) com variável endógena (^{Kim, 2004}) que tal função de demanda esteve sujeita a três regimes distintos ao longo do período amostral. Dois desses estados estão associados com regimes de expansão e retração inerentes as fases de uma economia de mercado no qual o estado da economia é determinado pelos seus fundamentos. Um ciclo de forte expansão acontece entre 2004 e 2007 enquanto um ciclo de retração vigora entre o final de 2007 e início de 2008. O terceiro regime, também de expansão, acontece num único ciclo entre 2008 e 2009 sendo no nosso entendimento gerado de modo artificial em decorrência do emprego de medidas anticíclicas fomentadas pelo governo. Entre elas, pode-se destacar a redução da base de recolhimento do compulsório e da alíquota do IPI. Essas providências promoveram a imediata expansão do crédito e levaram a um processo de formação de bolha no mercado de veículos, que culminou com a necessidade de introdução das chamadas medidas macroprudenciais, a partir de dezembro de 2010, quando já havia em curso uma tendência de contínuo aumento da inadimplência no crédito.

Este trabalho investiga a existência de discriminação entre os profissionais de enfermagem no Brasil utilizando o procedimento de decomposição de Oaxaca-Ransom (1994, 1999), em conjunto com a metodologia de dados em painel utilizada para estimar os parâmetros para aplicação do método. Os coeficientes são substancialmente maiores no período 1992-2011, sugerindo que há mudanças estruturais na formação dos salários para todas as coortes. Os coeficientes referentes às coortes procuram capturar os efeitos fixos dos grupos etários. O efeito fixo para os brancos (167,4%) é muito maior do que o para os não brancos (119,7%), sugerindo que os brancos teriam experimentado aumentos de salário superiores aos não brancos.

This paper evaluates the effect of a change in the quantity of money on relative prices in the U.S. economy based on quarterly time-series for the period of 1959 to 2013. We also estimate the implication of a change in relative prices on the rate of inflation and macroeconomic variables. The empirical results indicate that the change of money supply not only affects relative prices but also affects the inflation rate and real variables, such as investment, natural rate of unemployment and potential GDP, through the change in relative prices. The relevant finding of our study is that money is not neutral in a non-traditional sense because a change in the money supply disturbs relative prices and, consequently, the allocation of resources in the economy. This finding has serious implications that must be considered in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.

In this article we perform production efficiency analysis for the 40 countries with largest value added by agricultural sector in 2005. Under the assumption of a nonparametric frontier and production observations satisfying a statistical model including both random and inefficiency errors, we estimate an agricultural production function using DEA measures of efficiency with output orientation and variable returns to scale. We found evidence that the set of countries investigated could increase their total value added by agricultural sector for at least 53.9% without increasing input usage with the prevailing technology. This result has a direct impact on issues related to the recent food crisi

Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that the rise of the ratios of domestic credit, fiscal deficit and residents bank deposits to the GDP is inherent to the different types of crises classified for economic literature. It was also identified as common factors to these episodes some indicators that capture the excessive monetary expansion of the economies and that reflect the fall in international reserves, represented by M2/Reserves and Imports/Reserves ratios and also the total volume of international reserves