Gregory Brock

Counterfactual estimates of excess deaths in Russian regions in 2020 are compared with actual deaths to measure the initial COVID impact. COVID is a real threat to high labor productivity regions and those with relatively bigger defense sectors. Corruption is surprisingly found to lower excess deaths. Legacy Soviet human capital and early Putin era democracy don’t appear to impact excess deaths. Urban males are most threatened with an even greater negative impact on the economy as COVID moves into working age brackets in the medium term. Living in rural areas and/or in regions far from Moscow was relatively safer in 2020.

We examine energy efficiency in the European Union (EU) using an integrated model that connects labor and capital as production factors with energy consumption to produce GDP with a limited amount of environmental emissions. The model is a linear output-oriented BCC data envelopment analysis (DEA) that employs variables with non-negative values to calculate efficiency scores for a sample of 28 EU member states in the period 2010–2018. We assume variable returns to scale (VRS) considering the natural inclination of countries to adopt technologies that allow them to produce higher outputs over extended periods of time, which we observed through the trends of increasing labor productivity and decreasing energy intensity over the analyzed period. The average EU inefficiency margin in the sample period is 16.0%, with old member states being significantly more efficient (4.2%) than new member states (29.5%). Energy efficiency management does not improve over time, especially in new member states that had substantially worse efficiency by 2018 than in 2010. New member states could increase energy efficiency through the liberalization of the energy market, the support of energy-saving and technologically advanced industries, and the introduction of measures aimed at increasing the productivity levels in the economy.

The economic performance of Chechnya is examined for the first time using an aggregate stochastic frontier production function method. The 15 sectors of the economy are found to be quite inefficient in the use of capital and labour to produce aggregate output. Extensive growth is likely to continue though at a lower rate as federal subsidies from Moscow end. Intensive growth is unlikely given the lack of foreign investment and the authoritarian political system. Some evidence for the emergence of a market economy is found, suggesting that Kadyrov has overseen an economic transition.

Russian macroeconomic growth in the transition era is analysed across federal districts using a neoclassical production function often found in studies of Soviet-era economic growth. An adjusted capital stock series for Russian regions is created and used in the aggregate production function for 1995–2003 to analyse growth across the 11 federal districts in Russia. Federal district output growth is found to be explained well by neoclassical growth theory, indicating that poorer regions may converge to richer regions, thereby strengthening the Russian Federation. Federal districts also have high capital/labour ratios, suggesting that expanded regional domestic and foreign investment across Russia in the future will enhance growth.