Maria Fernanda F. Lima e Costa

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

The use of questionnaires has been recommended for identifying, at a lower cost, individuals at risk for schistosomiasis. In this study, validity of information obtained by questionnaire in the screening for Schistosoma mansoni infection was assessed in four communities in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Explanatory variables were water contact activities, sociodemographic characteristics and previous treatment for schistosomiasis. From 677, 1474, 766 and 3290 individuals eligible for stool examination in the communities, 89 to 97% participated in the study. The estimated probability of individuals to be infected, if they have all characteristics identified as independently associated with S.mansoni infection, varied from 15% in Canabrava, to 42% in Belo Horizonte, 48% in Comercinho and 80% in São José do Acácio. Our results do not support the hypothesis that a same questionnaire on risk factors could be used in screening for S.mansoni infection in different communities.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the 17D yellow fever vaccine in the conditions under which it is used in public health services. In 1989, a nonconcurrent prospective study was carried out in Bocaiúva, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, 6 months after mass vaccination of the population. The study population was made up of first-grade students from all the schools in Bocaiúva. The exposed group consisted of a simple random sample of vaccinated students (n = 173) and the unexposed group consisted of all those who had not been vaccinated (n = 55). Serum samples were examined with the neutralization test in mice; these tests were conducted blind, that is, the examiner did not know the vaccination status of the subject. The serology results were as follows: of those vaccinated, 75% were seropositive, 17% were seronegative, and 7% showed an inconclusive result; in the unvaccinated children, these results were 9%, 87%, and 4%, respectively. The age-adjusted seropositivity ratio between vaccinated and unvaccinated children was 7.6 (95% CI: 3.4 to 16.7). The proportion of seropositivity attributable to vaccination, adjusted for age, was 86.8% (95% CI: 70.6 to 94.0). The results showed that the efficacy of the vaccine, defined by means of seropositivity for the virus, was below the levels expected for the 17D vaccine. This may have been due to operational failures in the conservation or application of the vaccine. The results point to the need for routine systematic evaluations by the health services after mass utilization of the vaccine.

An evaluation of the control program on schistosomiasis (PCE/PCDEN) was performed in the region of São Francisco river in MInas Gerais. The study area comprises six municipalities, with 130,000 inhabitants and 916 localities situated in an area with 10,722 km2. The activities initiated in 1983-85 in four municipalities and in 1987 in the other two. The main measures of control were repeated treatment with oxamniquine and use of niclosamide. The prevalence of infection by Schistosoma mansoni in the first four municipalities, that was initially around 18 and 32%, dropped abruptly after the first intervention (1983/85) and remained in levels below the initial ones until the last assessment (1990-94); similar trends were observed for the proportion of infected snails. In these municipalities, the proportion of localities without infection or with prevalence below 5% increased in relation to those with higher prevalence. In the other two municipalities, with initial prevalence below 5%, there were no substantial changes in S. mansoni prevalence or proportion of infected snails; the cost benefit of the program in these municipalities need to be assessed and the priorities redirected to eradicate focal areas and prevent spread to non infected localities. The authors call attention to the difficulties in the long term of a control program based on repeated treatments. Information on factors associated with S. mansoni infection in each locality, or in groups of similar localities, would allow to develop additional measures to treatment that could last longer and be less dependent on the continuous use of chemotherapy.