Linda See

This paper describes the online learning and teaching resources that are currently being developed for the contemporary and historical UK censuses as part of a project that is being funded by the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) to support its ‘Information Environment’. The online resources are intended to support learners and teachers in the UK Higher and Further Education sectors who are interested in UK census data. A variety of resources is available including: interactive online tutorials with practical exercises, textual materials, web pages and PowerPoint slides. The materials have been designed to be as flexible as possible encouraging a ‘pick and mix’ approach to the use of the resources. The resources are also intended to facilitate the use of 2001 census data. Feedback from student piloting and consultation workshops is also considered. All the resources can be accessed at: http://www.chcc.ac.uk.

This paper presents four different approaches for integrating conventional and AI-based forecasting models to provide a hybridized solution to the continuous river level and flood prediction problem. Individual forecasting models were developed on a stand alone basis using historical time series data from the River Ouse in northern England. These include a hybrid neural network, a simple rule-based fuzzy logic model, an ARMA model and naive predictions (which use the current value as the forecast). The individual models were then integrated via four different approaches: calculation of an average, a Bayesian approach, and two fuzzy logic models, the first based purely on current and past river flow conditions and the second, a fuzzification of the crisp Bayesian method. Model performance was assessed using global statistics and a more specific flood related evaluation measure. The addition of fuzzy logic to the crisp Bayesian model yielded overall results that were superior to the other individual and integrated approaches.

Four design tool procedures are examined to create improved neural network architectures for forecasting runoff from a small catchment. Different algorithms are used to remove nodes and connections so as to produce an optimised forecasting model, thereby reducing computational expense without loss in performance. The results also highlight issues in selecting analytical methods to compare outputs from different forecasting procedures.

This paper assesses one of many potential enhancements to conventional flood forecasting that can be achieved through the use of soft computing technologies. A methodology is outlined in which the forecasting data set is split into subsets before training with a series of neural networks. These networks are then recombined via a rule-based fuzzy logic model that has been optimized using a genetic algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated using historical time series data from the Ouse River catchment in northern England. The model forecasts are assessed on global performance statistics and on a more specific flood-related evaluation measure, and they are compared to benchmarks from a statistical model and naive predictions. The overall results indicate that this methodology may provide a well performing, low-cost solution, which may be readily integrated into existing operational flood forecasting and warning systems.