John F. Joseph

In studies on the health impacts of air pollution, regression analysis continues to advance far beyond classical linear regression, which many scientists may have become familiar with in an introductory statistics course. With each new level of complexity, regression analysis may become less transparent, even to the analyst working with the data. This may be especially true in count data regression models, where the response variable (typically given the symbol y) is count data (i.e., takes on values of 0, 1, 2, …). In such models, the normal distribution (the familiar bell-shaped curve) for the residuals (i.e., the differences between the observed values and the values predicted by the regression model) no longer applies. Unless care is taken to correctly specify just how those residuals are distributed, the tendency to accept untrue hypotheses may be greatly increased. The aim of this paper is to present a simple histogram of predicted and observed count values (POCH), which, while rarely found in the environmental literature but presented in authoritative statistical texts, can dramatically reduce the risk of accepting untrue hypotheses. POCH can also increase the transparency of count data regression models to analysts themselves and to the scientific community in general.

Restoring the hydrologic flow regime of urban areas by promoting infiltration, retention, and evapotranspiration on the site is one of the goals of low-impact development (LID). These goals can be achieved through the implementation of stormwater control measures (SCMs) such as green roofs and permeable pavements. The effectiveness of SCMs can be influenced not only by their design but also by their location. The present study applies multi-objective evolutionary optimization and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to help identify near-optimal locations of green roofs and permeable pavements in the catchment scale. The Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II was connected to the stormwater management model (SWMM) to identify the location of SCMs and characterize the tradeoffs between flow regime alteration and implementation costs. The impact of implementing SCMs is measured by peak flow, runoff volume, and the hydrologic footprint residence (HFR). The HFR is a new stormwater metric that represents dynamics of inundated areas and residence time of flood waves throughout downstream segments. The approach was tested in an illustrative case study of an 11.7-ha urban catchment divided into five subcatchments. The results indicate that locating SCMs in downstream subcatchments can reduce peak flow more effectively, whereas SCMs placed in upstream subcatchments better reduce the HFR. The proposed methodology can help stormwater managers to better assess the combined performance of LID-SCMs in different hydrologic scales and generate guidelines for prioritizing the implementation or retrofitting of urban areas with green infrastructure.