Chris Sherlaw-Johnson

In 2000, the national cancer plan for England created 34 cancer networks, new organisational structures to coordinate services across populations varying between a half and three million people. We investigated the availability of data sets reflecting measures of structure, process and outcome that could be used to support network management.

Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS) is the world's longest established OR journal and an official journal of The OR Society. It is the aim of the Journal to present papers which are relevant to practitioners, researchers, teachers, students and consumers of operational research, and which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of OR.

In recent years there has been a growing need for effective monitoring of clinical outcomes. Two techniques for continuous monitoring that have emerged almost simultaneously are the Variable Life-Adjusted Display (VLAD) and risk-adjusted cumulative sum charts (CUSUM). The VLAD provides clinicians and management with an easily understandable overview of outcome history and is now in routine use in several hospitals. Although it can indicate runs of good and bad outcomes, unlike the CUSUM, it does not provide a quantitative means for assessing whether they merit investigation. This paper introduces a scheme for applying control limits from CUSUM charts onto the VLAD, thus enhancing its role as an effective monitoring tool.

In recent years, there has been increasing use of analytical and graphical methods to assist the monitoring of outcomes in adult cardiac surgery. In this paper, we present extensions to the basic VLAD methodology that add flexibility and assist in its interpretation. Using techniques from probability theory, we have devised graphical tools whereby deviations from expected outcomes can be monitored to see how likely they are to have occurred by chance. The methods are based upon pre-operative assessments of risk and use exact analytical techniques. These tools allow deviations from expected outcomes to be readily assessed and compared with the distribution of chance outcomes. Appropriate colour coding allows interpretation in terms of a temperature gradient. Exact analysis methods based on the use of pre-operative risk assessment provide a useful means for assisting the interpretation of VLAD charts. Such analysis has the advantage that it is applicable even for relatively short series of operations. Also, it takes specific account of the heterogeneity of case mix when quantifying the variability that is expected. By displaying the overall history of outcomes in a visually intuitive manner, it complements the more formal tools for detecting isolated good and bad runs that are available.

The aim of this study is to evaluate different options for introducing liquid-based cytology (LBC) and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing into the UK cervical cancer screening programme. These include options that incorporate HPV testing either as a triage for mild and borderline smear abnormalities or as a primary screening test. Outcomes include the predicted impact on resource use, total cost, life years and cost–effectiveness. Extensive sensitivity analysis has been carried out to explore the importance of the uncertainty associated with disease natural history and the impact of screening. Under baseline assumptions, the cost–effectiveness of different options for introducing LBC appears favourable, and these results are consistent under a range of assumptions for its impact on the diagnostic effectiveness of cytology. However, if we assume a higher marginal cost of LBC in comparison to conventional methods, primary smear testing options are predicted to be more cost-effective without LBC. Combined LBC primary smear and HPV testing with a 5-year interval is similar in both cost and effectiveness to the other 3-yearly options of primary smear testing or primary HPV testing alone. However, both primary HPV testing and combined options would give rise to a far greater risk of inappropriate colposcopy throughout a woman's lifetime.

The need for effective surgical performance measurement has gained an increasingly high profile in recent years, particularly since events at Bristol Royal Infirmary, where apparent poor performance...

Cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has potential advantages over conventional smear testing in that it can predict cases in which invasive cancers are more likely...