David N. Spergel

The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will monitor $\sim 2$ deg$^2$ toward the Galactic bulge in a wide ($\sim 1-2~\mu$m) W149 filter at 15-minute cadence with exposure times of $\sim$50s for 6 seasons of 72 days each, for a total $\sim$41,000 exposures taken over $\sim$432 days, spread over the 5-year prime mission. This will be one of the deepest exposures of the sky ever taken, reaching a photon-noise photometric precision of 0.01 mag per exposure and collecting a total of $\sim 10^9$ photons over the course of the survey for a W149$_{\rm AB}\sim 21$ star. Of order $4 \times 10^7$ stars will be monitored with W149$_{\rm AB}$<21, and 10$^8$ stars with W145$_{\rm AB}$<23. The WFIRST microlensing survey will detect $\sim$54,000 microlensing events, of which roughly 1% ($\sim$500) will be due to isolated black holes, and $\sim$3% ($\sim$1600) will be due to isolated neutron stars. It will be sensitive to (effectively) isolated compact objects with masses as low as the mass of Pluto, thereby enabling a measurement of the compact object mass function over 10 orders of magnitude. Assuming photon-noise limited precision, it will detect $\sim 10^5$ transiting planets with sizes as small as $\sim 2~R_\oplus$, perform asteroseismology of $\sim 10^6$ giant stars, measure the proper motions to $\sim 0.3\%$ and parallaxes to $\sim 10\%$ for the $\sim 6 \times 10^6$ disk and bulge stars in the survey area, and directly detect $\sim 5 \times 10^3$ Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with diameters down to $\sim 10$ km, as well as detect $\sim 10^3$ occulations of stars by TNOs during the survey. All of this science will completely serendipitous, i.e., it will not require modifications of the WFIRST optimal microlensing survey design. Allowing for some minor deviation from the optimal design, such as monitoring the Galactic center, would enable an even broader range of transformational science.

We study the signal from patchy reionization in view of the future high accuracy polarization measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We implement an extraction procedure of the patchy reionization signal analogous to CMB lensing. We evaluate the signal to noise ratio (SNR) for the future Stage IV (S4) CMB experiment. The signal has a broad peak centered on the degree angular scales, with a long tail at higher multipoles. The CMB S4 experiment can effectively constrain the properties of reionization by measuring the signal on degree scales. The signal amplitude depends on the properties of the structure determining the reionization morphology. We describe bubbles having radii distributed log-normally. The expected S/N is sensitive to the mean bubble radius: $\bar{R}=5$ Mpc implies $S/N \approx 4$, $\bar{R}=10$ Mpc implies $S/N \approx 20$. The spread of the radii distribution strongly affects the integrated SNR, that changes by a factor of $10^2$ when $\sigma_{lnr}$ goes from $\ln 2$ to $\ln3$. Future CMB experiments will thus place important constraints on the physics of reionization.

Yes. Future CMB experiments such as Advanced ACTPol and CMB-S4 should achieve measurements with S/N of $> 0.1$ for the typical galaxies in redshift surveys. These measurements will provide complementary measurements of the growth rate of large scale structure $f$ and the expansion rate of the Universe $H$ to galaxy clustering measurements. This paper emphasizes that there is significant information in the anisotropy of the relative pairwise kSZ measurements. We expand the relative pairwise kSZ power spectrum in Legendre polynomials and consider up to its octopole. Assuming that the noise in the filtered maps is uncorrelated between the positions of galaxies in the survey, we derive a simple analytic form for the power spectrum covariance of the relative pairwise kSZ temperature in redshift space. While many previous studies have assumed optimistically that the optical depth of the galaxies $\tau_{\rm T}$ in the survey is known, we marginalize over $\tau_{\rm T}$, to compute constraints on the growth rate $f$ and the expansion rate $H$. For realistic sure parameters, we find that combining kSZ and galaxy redshift survey data reduces the marginalized $1$-$\sigma$ errors on $H$ and $f$ by $\sim50$-$70\%$ compared to the galaxy-only analysis.