Jerome L. McElroy

Contrasting profiles for 25 dependent and 30 independent small islands (less than one million in population) are developed using 22 socioeconomic and demographic indicators for every fifth year between 1990 and 2010. Results confirm the consistently superior performance of the subnational island jurisdictions and provide strong but indirect evidence of their propensity for the political status quo. The former consistently remained more affluent with more dynamic and diversified economies, and their citizens were uniformly healthier with longer life expectancy and higher literacy than residents of the sovereign microstates. Finally, the affiliated islands were also more demographically mature with lower fertility.

This study presents a review of the literature and develops three related empirical analyses to determine the characteristics of small island tourist economies (SITEs). With a sample of 39 small islands, the first means difference analysis contrasts patterns in the Caribbean versus Pacific and Indian Ocean islands. The second, a Tourism Penetration Index, identifies the most successful SITEs along Butler's life cycle. The third is a regression analysis used to explain the uneven spread of island tourism across the globe. Results suggest the importance of adequate infrastructure, a degree of modernization, favorable location, uncrowded ambience and dependent political status in SITE success. However, only the last three are statistically significant influences.

This study attempts to do three things: (i) provide a review of recent advances in the small island economy literature using the tourism penetration index, (ii) update the impact of tourism across the same global sample of 36 small islands (less than 1 million in population and 5000 km² in area) introduced in APV 47 (1) 2006, and (iii) employing an abbreviated version of the destination life cycle as a development paradigm, construct three different socioeconomic and demographic profiles based on low, intermediate and high tourism impact. Results using cross‐sectional data of 27 indicators reveal three statistically distinct profiles that demonstrate three stages of economic development. Specifically, the findings contrast the low‐income, labour‐exporting, least tourism‐penetrated MIRAB‐type (Migrant/Remittances and Aid/Bureaucracy) emerging islands with their more advanced intermediate impact neighbours. In turn, the latter fall at a significant distance from the most successful small island tourist economy (SITE) destinations. Thus, this study further refines the characteristics of SITE islands and confirms the viability of tourism in general and the destination life cycle in particular as an effective engine and model, respectively, of island development.

Como muchas economías isleñas, St. Kitts está en una encrucijada. La aceleración de la globalización y la decisión de la Unión Europea en el 2005 de eliminar el tratamiento preferencial para su industria principal, la caña de azúcar, han dejado opciones limitadas a la isla. El turismo se ha convertido ahora en el factor clave para su desarrollo económico. Los destinos pasan por varios ciclos, tanto de popularidad como de inestabilidad, afectados por las tendencias del mercado y del turismo, así como por factores ambientales y sociales. Para muchos destinos turísticos, especialmente las islas, existe una competencia intensa, los factores diferenciales son débiles y el producto se ha mercantilizado. Habiéndose presentado el turismo como el factor clave del desarrollo económico y sostenible de la isla, es necesario implementar estrategias a largo plazo para adaptarse a unos mercados y a unas tendencias cambiantes. Es necesaria una fuerte dirección y gestión de los recursos en un marco integrado y holístico. El modelo del ciclo de vida del destino proporciona un marco útil para discutir sobre los factores que impiden el desarrollo sostenible del turismo en las islas y las diversas medidas que son necesarias para asegurar una economía estable. St. Kitts será utilizado como un caso específico para ilustrar estos factores en un contexto insular.

The MIRAB model developed by Bertram and Watters, based on remittances and aid, has dominated the small island economy literature for two decades. Recently, two challenges have surfaced: the PROFIT formulation emphasizing domestic policy flexibility - a socalled ‘resourcefulness of jurisdiction’ - and a dynamic private sector (Baldacchino, 2006); and the SITE model, stressing the role of tourism (McElroy, 2006). To date, there has been no comparative assessment of these different island models. This article addresses this gap. Its point of departure is to consider SITE islands as a subspecies of the PROFIT cluster. It constructs comprehensive profiles across 27 socio-economic and demographic variables for two island sub-groups with populations of less than three million: 23 MIRAB and 35 PROFIT-SITE. Results indicate PROFIT-SITE islands are much more affluent, socially advanced and demographically mature than their MIRAB counterparts.

Why the propensity for dependence in small sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJs)? This study argues in favour of their superior levels of performance achieved under affiliation. To demonstrate the evidence, the socioeconomic and demographic profiles are developed of 25 SNIJs and 30 sovereign small (less than one million population) islands using 25 variables and a two-sample means test. Results demonstrate that SNIJs consistently out-perform their sovereign neighbours. The former are economically more affluent, with more dynamic economies diversified towards international services (tourism and offshore finance). They are also more socially progressive, with higher life expectancy and literacy rates and lower infant mortality. Finally, they are more demographically mature, with lower birth and fertility rates. In contrast to the independents' emigrant status, the immigrant SNIJ societies' superior performance is indirectly linked to their judicious use of jurisdictional autonomy and close metropolitan ties. Conscious of these advantages, islanders repeatedly vote to retain the status quo.