Ramazan Gençay

We evaluate the performances of wavelet jump detection tests by using simulated high-frequency data, in which jumps and some other non-standard features are present. Wavelet-based jump detection tests have a clear advantage over the alternatives, as they are capable of stating the exact timing and number of jumps. The results indicate that, in addition to those advantages, these detection tests also preserve desirable power and size properties even in non-standard data environments, whereas their alternatives fail to sustain their desirable properties beyond standard data features.

This paper provides a comparative analysis of stock market dynamics of the 1987 and 2008 financial crises and discusses the extent to which risk management measures based on entropy can be successful in predicting aggregate market expectations. We find that the Tsallis entropy is more appropriate for the short and sudden market crash of 1987, while the approximate entropy is the dominant predictor of the prolonged, fundamental crisis of 2008. We conclude by suggesting the use of entropy as a market sentiment indicator in technical analysis.

This paper introduces a new nonparametric test to identify jump arrival times in high frequency financial time series data. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived. We demonstrate that the test is robust for different specifications of price processes and the presence of the microstructure noise. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted which shows that the test has good size and power. Further, we examine the multi-scale jump dynamics in US equity markets. The main findings are as follows. First, the jump dynamics of equities are sensitive to data sampling frequency with significant underestimation of jump intensities at lower frequencies. Second, although arrival densities of positive jumps and negative jumps are symmetric across different time scales, the magnitude of jumps is distributed asymmetrically at high frequencies. Third, only 20% of jumps occur in the trading session from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM, suggesting that illiquidity during after-hours trading is a strong determinant of jumps.

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data-generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price changes. On the other hand, statistical properties of monthly price changes are often not fully covered by a model based on daily price changes. In this paper, we simultaneously model regimes of volatilities at multiple time scales through wavelet-domain hidden Markov models. We establish an important stylized property of volatility across different time scales. We call this property asymmetric vertical dependence. It is asymmetric in the sense that a low volatility state (regime) at a long time horizon is most likely followed by low volatility states at shorter time horizons. On the other hand, a high volatility state at long time horizons does not necessarily imply a high volatility state at shorter time horizons. Our analysis provides evidence that volatility is a mixture of high and low volatility regimes, resulting in a distribution that is non-Gaussian. This result has important implications regarding the scaling behavior of volatility, and, consequently, the calculation of risk at different time scales.

This paper develops a wavelet (spectral) approach to testing the presence of a unit root in a stochastic process. The wavelet approach is appealing, since it is based directly on the different behavior of the spectra of a unit root process and that of a short memory stationary process. By decomposing the variance (energy) of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency components and that of its high frequency components via the discrete wavelet transformation (DWT), we design unit root tests against near unit root alternatives. Since DWT is an energy preserving transformation and able to disbalance energy across high and low frequency components of a series, it is possible to isolate the most persistent component of a series in a small number of scaling coefficients. We demonstrate the size and power properties of our tests through Monte Carlo simulations.