Kate R. Searle

Many countries are developing offshore wind farms to provide renewable energy, yet such developments can harm biodiversity. Seabirds are a highly threatened group of birds and can be impacted by wind farms through lethal collisions and via sub‐lethal displacement effects. However, we do not have a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of offshore wind farms on seabird populations, particularly outside of the breeding season. We developed an individual‐based model to predict the non‐breeding season impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds. We used long‐term tracking data obtained from geolocation‐immersion loggers to estimate population‐level distributions and activity budgets. We simulated individual behaviour, movement, wind farm interactions (collision and displacement) and any resulting lethal or sub‐lethal effects. We demonstrated our model by assessing the impact of 10 simulated offshore wind farms on two populations that breed in Norway: common guillemots Uria aalge (Sklinna) and black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla (Ålesund). We quantified collision risk in kittiwakes and sub‐lethal displacement effects in guillemots and converted these effects into a change in survival or end of season body mass as a proxy for condition. We predicted that 49.6% of guillemots breeding at Sklinna would experience displacement effects during the non‐breeding season. As the energetic impact of displacement is relatively unknown, we modelled a range of possible displacement costs and present several impact scenarios, with adult mortality levels ranging from 0% to 5.32% and end of season body masses of 97.12%–99.84% compared to those resulting from an unimpacted scenario. Despite 98.9% of kittiwakes flying through at least one wind farm footprint, we only predicted collisions in 0.055% of the population; this low mortality was primarily driven by low overlap between the modelled height of the turbine rotors and the probable flight height of kittiwakes. Practical implication: Our model provides a tool that can be used to assess the non‐breeding season impacts of OWFs on seabird populations, improving sustainability when developing renewable energy infrastructure. We highlight several key limitations as areas of research that are required to reduce uncertainty when predicting impacts. Our model is reproducible and adaptable for use on other species or for other marine threats.

Governments worldwide are setting ambitious targets for offshore renewable energy development (ORD). However, deployment is constrained by a lack of understanding of the environmental consequences of ORD, with impacts on protected birds forming a key environmental consenting challenge. Assessing the impacts of ORD on marine birds is challenging, utilizing interlinked approaches to understand complex behavioural, energetic, and demographic processes. Consequently, there is considerable uncertainty associated with ORD assessments for marine birds, with current methods failing to quantify uncertainty in a scientifically robust, evidence-based manner. This leads to a high degree of precaution and a lack of confidence in the evidence used to inform ORD consenting decisions. We review the methods used to estimate ornithological ORD impacts in the UK, a country at the forefront of ORD. We identify areas in which uncertainty quantification could be improved through statistical modelling, data collection, or adaptation of the assessment process. We develop a framework for end-to-end quantification of uncertainty, integrating uncertainty estimates from individual stages of the assessment process. Finally, we provide research recommendations to better quantify and reduce uncertainty, to lower future ORD consenting risk. These recommendations extend beyond the UK and could improve impact assessments in other countries with different legislative frameworks.

Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation-temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions.

Competition for high‐quality breeding sites in colonial species is often intense, such that individuals may invest considerable time in site occupancy even outside the breeding season. The site defense hypothesis predicts that high‐quality sites will be occupied earlier and more frequently, consequently those sites will benefit from earlier and more successful breeding. However, few studies relate non‐breeding season occupancy to subsequent breeding performance limiting our understanding of the potential life‐history benefits of this behavior. Here, we test how site occupancy in the non‐breeding season related to site quality, breeding timing, and breeding success in a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, an abundant and well‐studied colonially breeding seabird. Using time‐lapse photography, we recorded occupancy at breeding sites from October to March over three consecutive non‐breeding seasons. We then monitored the successive breeding timing (lay date) and breeding success at each site. On average, sites were first occupied on the 27th October ± 11.7 days (mean ± SD), subsequently occupied on 46 ± 18% of survey days and for 55 ± 15% of the time when at least one site was occupied. Higher‐quality sites, sites with higher average historic breeding success, were occupied earlier, more frequently and for longer daily durations thereafter. Laying was earlier at sites that were occupied more frequently and sites occupied earlier were more successful, supporting the site defense hypothesis. A path analysis showed that the return date had a greater or equal effect on breeding success as lay date. Pair level occupancy had no effect on breeding timing or success. The clear effect of non‐breeding occupancy of breeding sites on breeding timing and success highlights the benefits of this behavior on demography in this population and the importance of access to breeding sites outside the breeding season in systems where competition for high‐quality sites is intense.

Density‐dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site‐dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the ‘buffer effect’. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub‐colonies spanning a 38‐year period (1981–2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub‐colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub‐colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub‐colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub‐colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub‐colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub‐colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

The oomycete plant pathogen, Phytophthora austrocedri , is an aggressive killer of cypress trees causing severe mortality of Chilean cedar ( Austrocedrus chilensis ) in Argentina since the 1940s and now common juniper ( Juniperus communis s.l.) in the UK. Rapid mortality of key UK juniper populations was first observed in the early 2000s; the causal agent of mortality was confirmed as P. austrocedri in 2012 and the pathogen has now been widely detected - but is not ubiquitous - in juniper populations across Scotland and England. Although juniper has a broad distribution across the northern hemisphere, the UK incidence of P. austrocedri remains the only confirmed infection of juniper populations globally. Juniper is an important species for biodiversity, so it is imperative to understand the abiotic and biotic drivers of emergent P. austrocedri infection to inform detection, containment and conservation strategies to manage juniper populations across the full extent of its range. As management of UK juniper populations is primarily conducted at a local level, we investigated field scale drivers of disease – in three, geographically separate populations with different infection histories. Variation in the proportion of juniper showing symptoms - discoloured or dead foliage – was measured using stratified sampling across along key environmental gradients within each 100-hectare population, including juniper density identified from aerial imagery. Potential predictors of infection included altitude, slope, distance to nearest watercourse, soil moisture (mean percentage volumetric water content), area of red deer browsing damage and area of commonly associated vascular plant species. We assessed support in the data for alternative models explaining the spatial distribution of P. austrocedri symptoms using full subset covariate selection and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). Despite differences in environmental gradients and infection histories between populations, area of juniper symptomatic for P. austrocedri increased with waterlogging, increasing with soil moisture in sites where soils had higher peat or clay contents, and decreasing with proximity to watercourses where sites had shallower, sandier soils. These results are consistent with key drivers identified at both local and landscape scale in Chilean cedar. Our approach enables identification of site-specific disease management strategies including prioritisation of inspections in microsites with high soil moisture and promoting conservation measures such as creation of sites for natural regeneration in drier microsites to minimise pathogen spread and maximise the resilience of existing juniper populations.

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a “worst case” but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.

Little is known about long-term ecological responses in lakes following red mud pollution. Among red mud contaminants, arsenic (As) is of considerable concern. Determination of the species of As accumulated in aquatic organisms provides important information about the biogeochemical cycling of the element and transfer through the aquatic food-web to higher organisms. We used coupled ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to assess As speciation in tissues of five macrophyte taxa in Kinghorn Loch, UK, 30 years following the diversion of red mud pollution from the lake. Toxic inorganic As was the dominant species in the studied macrophytes, with As species concentrations varying with macrophyte taxon and tissue type. The highest As content measured in roots of Persicaria amphibia (L.) Gray (87.2 mg kg-1) greatly exceeded the 3 – 10 mg kg-1 range suggested as a potential phytotoxic level. Accumulation of toxic As species by plants suggested toxicological risk to higher organisms known to utilise macrophytes as a food source.

Herbivory is a fundamental process that controls primary producer abundance and regulates energy and nutrient flows to higher trophic levels. Despite the recent proliferation of small‐scale studies on herbivore effects on aquatic plants, there remains limited understanding of the factors that control consumer regulation of vascular plants in aquatic ecosystems. Our current knowledge of the regulation of primary producers has hindered efforts to understand the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems, and to manage such ecosystems effectively. We conducted a global meta‐analysis of the outcomes of plant–herbivore interactions using a data set comprised of 326 values from 163 studies, in order to test two mechanistic hypotheses: first, that greater negative changes in plant abundance would be associated with higher herbivore biomass densities; second, that the magnitude of changes in plant abundance would vary with herbivore taxonomic identity. We found evidence that plant abundance declined with increased herbivore density, with plants eliminated at high densities. Significant between‐taxa differences in impact were detected, with insects associated with smaller reductions in plant abundance than all other taxa. Similarly, birds caused smaller reductions in plant abundance than echinoderms, fish, or molluscs. Furthermore, larger reductions in plant abundance were detected for fish relative to crustaceans. We found a positive relationship between herbivore species richness and change in plant abundance, with the strongest reductions in plant abundance reported for low herbivore species richness, suggesting that greater herbivore diversity may protect against large reductions in plant abundance. Finally, we found that herbivore–plant nativeness was a key factor affecting the magnitude of herbivore impacts on plant abundance across a wide range of species assemblages. Assemblages comprised of invasive herbivores and native plant assemblages were associated with greater reductions in plant abundance compared with invasive herbivores and invasive plants, native herbivores and invasive plants, native herbivores and mixed‐nativeness plants, and native herbivores and native plants. By contrast, assemblages comprised of native herbivores and invasive plants were associated with lower reductions in plant abundance compared with both mixed‐nativeness herbivores and native plants, and native herbivores and native plants. However, the effects of herbivore–plant nativeness on changes in plant abundance were reduced at high herbivore densities. Our mean reductions in aquatic plant abundance are greater than those reported in the literature for terrestrial plants, but lower than aquatic algae. Our findings highlight the need for a substantial shift in how biologists incorporate plant–herbivore interactions into theories of aquatic ecosystem structure and functioning. Currently, the failure to incorporate top‐down effects continues to hinder our capacity to understand and manage the ecological dynamics of habitats that contain aquatic plants.

An abattoir survey was performed in the French Melanesian archipelago of New Caledonia to determine the prevalence of paramphistomes in cattle and deer and to generate material for molecular typing at species and subspecies level. Prevalence in adult cattle was high at animal level (70% of 387 adult cattle) and batch level (81%). Prevalence was lower in calves at both levels (33% of 484 calves, 51% at batch level). Animals from 2 of 7 deer farms were positive for rumen fluke, with animal-level prevalence of 41.4% (29/70) and 47.1% (33/70), respectively. Using ITS-2 sequencing, 3 species of paramphistomes were identified, i.e. Calicophoron calicophorum, Fischoederius elongatus and Orthocoelium streptocoelium. All three species were detected in cattle as well as deer, suggesting the possibility of rumen fluke transmission between the two host species. Based on heterogeneity in ITS-2 sequences, the C. calicophorum population comprises two clades, both of which occur in cattle as well as deer. The results suggest two distinct routes of rumen fluke introduction into this area. This approach has wider applicability for investigations of the origin of rumen fluke infections and for the possibility of parasite transmission at the livestock-wildlife interface.