Pavlos Paschalis

Three years after GLE73 (2021 Oct 28), three distinct GLEs took place before the end of 2024. The first event, GLE74, was registered on 2024 May 11, followed by GLE75 on 2024 Jun 8 and GLE76 on 2024 Nov 21. Each event exhibited unique characteristics in terms of intensity, temporal evolution, and spectral properties. Notably, GLE74 occurred during an irregular Forbush decrease with sharp amplitude reduction and rapid recovery. Specifically, a 15 % decrease was recorded, followed by an exceptionally fast 10 % recovery within 1.5 hours, as observed by the Oulu neutron monitor station. This event triggered the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades (2024 May 10–11). GLE75 was a rather weak event which evolved in a quiet background as did GLE76. In this study, apart from the solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic conditions existing during these events, the response of the GLE Alert++ system, implemented by A.Ne. Mo.S. of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, to these Ground Level Enhancements is also being presented and analyzed, offering insights into their implications for space weather forecasting and radiation hazard.

During a period of intense solar activity and highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions, a large Forbush decrease began on 10 May 2024 accompanied by a historic geomagnetic storm that lasted for four days. This extreme geomagnetic disturbance classified as G5 according to “NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms” is referred to in the literature as the Mother’s Day Storm. This resulted from multiple, at least seven, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that had been occurring since 7 May. In addition, on 11 May, a powerful X5.8 class solar flare, reaching its maximum at 01:32 UT, was followed by an abrupt increase in proton flux with energies > 100 MeV (with onset on 11 May at 01:45 UT and peaking at 02:45 UT), as recorded by GOES satellites. This resulted in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE), identified as GLE74, occurring on 11 May 2024 during the recovery phase of the deep Forbush decrease (~15%). This Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event consisted of both impulsive and gradual components, where the high-energy tail of the gradual component was recorded by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. Approximately 15 minutes after the onset of the SEP event and 40 minutes prior to its peak, an alert was issued by the GLE Alert++ system of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), available as a federated product on the ESA SWE Portal under the Space Radiation Expert Service Centre. In this paper, a description of the solar activity, i.e., solar flares and CMEs, occurring during this time period is given. Moreover, recordings of cosmic ray data obtained by ground-based neutron monitors are used to perform a detailed analysis of GLE74. Finally, the response of the NKUA GLE Alert++ system to GLE74 is thoroughly presented.

As the current solar cycle 25 progresses and moves towards solar maxima, solar activity is increasing and extreme space weather events are taking place. Two severe geomagnetic storms accompanied by two large Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic ray intensity were recorded in March and May, 2024. More precisely, on 24 March 2024, a G4 (according to the NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms) geomagnetic storm was registered, with the corresponding geomagnetic indices Kp and Dst equal to 8 and −130 nT, respectively. On the same day, the majority of ground-based neutron monitor stations recorded an unusual Forbush decrease. This event stands out from a typical Forbush decrease because of its high amplitude decrease phase and rapid recovery phase, i.e., 15% decrease and an extremely rapid recovery of 10% within 1.5 h, as recorded at the Oulu neutron monitor station. Furthermore, on 10–13 May 2024, an unusual G5 geomagnetic storm (geomagnetic indices Kp = 9 and Dst = −412 nT) was registered (the last G5 storm had been observed in 2003). In addition, the polar neutron monitor stations recorded a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE74) during the recovery phase of a large Forbush decrease of 15%, which started on 10 May 2024. In this study, a detailed analysis of these two severe events in regard to the accompanying solar activity, interplanetary conditions and solar energetic particle events is provided. Moreover, the results of the NKUA “GLE Alert++ system”, the NKUA/IZMIRAN “FD Precursory Signals” method and the NKUA “ap Prediction tool” concerning these events are presented.

Over the last years the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens has implemented a warning tool called GLE Alert, which is a highly credible application that issues alerts when a ground level enhancement (GLE) starts due to very high energy solar energetic particles reaching the Earth. This application warns of a high intensity solar energetic particle event up to several minutes before it reaches near the near-Earth space environment. In this work, an assessment of the latest updated version of GLE Alert, GLE Alert++, is presented. GLE Alert++ is a federated product of the ESA S2P SWE Space Radiation Expert Service Centre, which is part of the ESA Space WEather Service NETwork (SWESNET) project. The assessment of the GLE Alert++, which was finalized in October 2022, focused on: (a) the availability of the real-time data provided by the neutron monitor stations that contribute to the GLE Alert++, (b) the behaviour of each station regarding the different Alert levels status (Watch, Warning and Alert), and (c) the definition of the real-time assessment index. The results of this work are of essential importance since they ensure a reliable and trustworthy warning tool, and can be highly useful in protecting humans during extreme solar energetic events.

In recent decades, the exposure of aviation crews and passengers to cosmic radiation has been progressively increasing due to the growing need of flights. Therefore, there is a need for radiation assessment software tools to act as a complement to other radiation protection techniques and countermeasures. In this work, the exposure to cosmic radiation is estimated for flights from Athens International Airport to various international destinations, by performing Monte Carlo simulations with the validated tool DYASTIMA/DYASTIMA-R. The results of the estimated total ambient dose equivalent, as well as the ambient dose equivalent rate for different flights, applying a typical flying level and constant atmospheric conditions, are presented for the first time. This study is carried out for different phases of solar activity for the time period from 1996 to 2019, which includes the two recent Solar Cycles 23 and 24.

Cosmic radiation is a major factor of ionization of the Earth's atmosphere. Both solar and galactic cosmic rays, which depend on solar activity and geomagnetic field, affect the radiation exposure in the atmosphere. Several models have been created for the estimation of the ionization and radiation dosimetry. In this work, as regards the ionization rate computations the CRAC:CRII model by the University of Oulu (https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/CRII/CRII.html) was used, while for the estimation of the ambient equivalent dose rate (dH*(10)/dt) we used the validated software DYASTIMA / DYASTIMA-R by the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/index.php/applications/dyastima). Both tools are of great importance as they allow us to calculate the respective quantities all over the globe, at the entire atmosphere and for different time periods and solar cycle phases. The study concerns the last two solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996–2019) and specific flight levels of commercial aviation (FL310, FL350 and FL390). The dependance of CRII and dH*(10)/dt on geomagnetic cut-off rigidity, solar activity, cosmic ray intensity, as well as the altitude inside the atmosphere, affect the radiation exposure of the air crew members and frequent flyers, which make the results very interesting for the aviation industry.

The new space era has expanded the exploration of other planets of our solar system. In this work, radiation quantities are estimated in the Venusian atmosphere using the software tool DYASTIMA/DYASTIMA-R, such as the energy deposit and the ambient dose equivalent rate. Monte Carlo simulations of the secondary particle cascades for different atmospheric layers were performed during solar minimum and solar maximum conditions, as well as during the extreme solar particle event that took place in October 1989, with a focus on the so-called Venusian zone of habitability.

A ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is a sudden increase in cosmic ray intensity originated by solar sources and recorded by ground-based detectors. GLEs are invariably associated with large solar flares that can release and accelerate solar particles at high energies. The minimum kinetic energy of particles reaching the Earth’s surface is >433 MeV at sea level and about 300 MeV/n at high-mountain altitude of about 3000 m a.s.l. Even though these abrupt events linked to solar activity are quite rare, they can have a great impact on technological systems and human health when recorded. Therefore, the accurate and effective prognosis of such events is of great importance. In this paper, an overview of the most recently recorded GLE event and the first of solar cycle 25, i.e., GLE73, as well as a post-event analysis is presented. GLE73 was detected on 28 October 2021 and was associated with the active region AR12887 on the central part of the solar disk, which produced an X1.0 solar flare. The event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.). It should be emphasized that the GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 min earlier than the one issued by GOES. A short description and the advantages of this last system are provided.

The main source of the ionization of the Earth’s atmosphere is the cosmic radiation that depends on solar activity as well as geomagnetic activity. Galactic cosmic rays constitute a permanent radiation background and contribute significantly to the radiation exposure inside the atmosphere. In this work, the cosmic-ray-induced ionization of the Earth’s atmosphere, due to both solar and galactic cosmic radiation during the recent solar cycles 23 (1996–2008) and 24 (2008–2019), was studied globally. Estimations of the ionization were based on the CRAC:CRII model by the University of Oulu. The use of this model allowed for extensive calculations from the Earth’s surface (atmospheric depth 1033 g/cm²) to the upper limit of the atmosphere (atmospheric depth 0 g/cm²). Monte Carlo simulations were performed for the estimation quantities of radiobiological interest with the validated software DYASTIMA/DYASTIMA-R. This study was focused on specific altitudes of interest, such as the common flight levels used by commercial aviation.

In recent years, there has been a huge increase in air travel, both for business and leisure. For this reason, entities such as the European Commission and the International Committee on Radiological Protection have provided several recommendations for the radiation protection of aviation crews and frequent flyers, as well as highlighted the need for accurate tools for radiation assessment in the atmosphere. With a focus on the most frequent commercial flying altitudes, this work has performed dosimetry calculations in the lower atmosphere of Earth for different values of cut-off rigidity, covering the recent solar cycles 23 and 24. Results are based on Monte Carlo simulations performed with the validated Geant4 software application Dynamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA) and its extension, DYASTIMA-R.