Ashok Mishra

In the eastern part of India, specifically in the coastal districts of Odisha, the Puri central canalsystem’s Phulnakhara distributary command, which is split between the districts of Cuttack and Khurda, is where the study was taken up during 2020 and 2021. The flow modelling of the Phulnakhara distributary command, covering a 49.03 km² area, was done by Visual MODFLOW (VMOD). The command area’s conceptual model was created by assigning various input data, and the developed model was calibrated with 1-year data (2020) and validated with 1-year data (2021) on a fortnightly basis for simulating the groundwater flow using VMOD. Both steady state and transient state circumstances were used to calibrate the hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient for the various layers in 2020. The calibrated hydraulic conductivity values vary from 1.16 × 10⁻³ ms⁻¹ to 4.86 × 10⁻⁴ ms⁻¹, and the calibrated values (2.00 × 10⁻² m⁻¹ to 4.00 × 10⁻⁶ m⁻¹) of specific storage varied from the first to third layer in both state scenarios. The validated model could forecast the groundwater condition and the flow head for the following ten years, assuming a 0.5% annual drop in recharge by increasing the pumping rate five, six, and seven times throughout the validation period (2021). The modelling study suggested that the command area will not remain safe for 10 years from the point of future groundwater development. The model performance showed strong agreement between simulated and observed groundwater heads, with R² values ranging from 0.68 to 0.91 and NSE values between 0.64 and 0.88. Predictive simulations indicated groundwater drawdowns of 4.82 m, 5.72 m, and 6.11 m under 5×, 6×, and 7× pumping scenarios, respectively, over the next decade, highlighting a significant risk of depletion unless conjunctive use strategies are adopted.

Over the past two decades, climate change and climatic variability have received significant attention from the scientific community. The present study investigates the impact of future climate change on irrigation water requirements in the coastal districts of Odisha, Eastern India, specifically within the Phulnakhara distributary’s command area of the main Puri canal system. Field investigations were conducted during the kharif and rabi seasons of 2019–2020 and 2020–2021. The study offers a new perspective involving a future climate data-driven model with water requirements of RCP 4.5 for this canal command area, and after integrating this with the optimal cropping area, the optimal future irrigation water needs for the kharif and rabi seasons were determined. The study focused on assessing future irrigation water demands under changing climatic conditions, with an emphasis on the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. Projections indicate that peak irrigation demand will occur in the kharif season of 2042–2043 and the rabi season of 2044–2045. Furthermore, a significant decline in groundwater levels is anticipated, ranging from 1.23 to 1.42 m below ground level (BGL) during the kharif season and from 1.46 to 1.64 m BGL during the rabi season, over the next 30 years (2021–2022 to 2050–2051). The most pronounced groundwater table decline is projected for the years 2042–2043 (kharif) and 2044–2045 (rabi), highlighting the need for sustainable water resource management strategies in the region. Based on this study, integrating the optimal crop area with future irrigation water needs will result in groundwater table fluctuations under the permissible limit.