Nicola Kistler

In a previous paper, the authors proved a conjecture of Lalley and Sellke that the empirical (time-averaged) distribution function of the maximum of branching Brownian motion converges almost surely to a Gumbel distribution. The result is extended here to the entire system of particles that are extremal, i.e. close to the maximum. Namely, it is proved that the distribution of extremal particles under time-average converges to a Poisson cluster process.

Branching Brownian motion describes a system of particles that diffuse in space and split into offspring according to a certain random mechanism. By virtue of the groundbreaking work by M. Bramson on the convergence of solutions of the Fisher‐KPP equation to traveling waves, the law of the rightmost particle in the limit of large times is rather well understood. In this work, we address the full statistics of the extremal particles (first‐, second‐, third‐largest, etc.). In particular, we prove that in the large t‐limit, such particles descend with overwhelming probability from ancestors having split either within a distance of order 1 from time 0, or within a distance of order 1 from time t. The approach relies on characterizing, up to a certain level of precision, the paths of the extremal particles. As a byproduct, a heuristic picture of branching Brownian motion “at the edge” emerges, which sheds light on the still unknown limiting extremal process.

We prove that the extremal process of branching Brownian motion, in the limit of large times, converges weakly to a cluster point process. The limiting process is a (randomly shifted) Poisson cluster process, where the positions of the clusters is a Poisson process with exponential density. The law of the individual clusters is characterized as branching Brownian motions conditioned to perform "unusually large displacements", and its existence is proved. The proof combines three main ingredients. First, the results of Bramson on the convergence of solutions of the Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation with general initial conditions to standing waves. Second, the integral representations of such waves as first obtained by Lalley and Sellke in the case of Heaviside initial conditions. Third, a proper identification of the tail of the extremal process with an auxiliary process, which fully captures the large time asymptotics of the extremal process. The analysis through the auxiliary process is a rigorous formulation of the cavity method developed in the study of mean field spin glasses.

We introduce a perceptron version of the Generalized Random Energy Model, and prove a quenched Sanov type large deviation principle for the empirical distribution of the random energies. The dual of the rate function has a representation through a variational formula which is closely related to the Parisi variational formula for the SK-model.