Kenisha Garnett

There is a growing need to strengthen the connection between rapidly expanding information on emerging issues and credible policy decision-making in an increasingly complex and uncertain environment. Traditional horizon scanning approaches face challenges in managing large volumes of information, much of which originate from diverse and often fringe sources, making it difficult to identify, assess and prioritise emerging issues. By exploring the integration of AI into horizon scanning, this paper contributes to improving the evidence base and anticipatory capacity of policy processes. A conceptual framework was developed to examine how AI can support the synthesis of evidence on emerging issues while retaining the critical role of expert judgement. The framework proposes a hybrid methodology that combines AI-enabled automation with human expertise across four interconnected stages: (1) automated scanning of diverse and continuously updated information sources; (2) semi-automated scenario development that synthesises trends, drivers and weak signals; (3) prioritisation of scenarios through combined quantitative and qualitative assessments aligned with policy objectives; and (4) targeted deep dive analysis that translates scanning outputs into actionable policy insights. The framework demonstrates how AI can support more systematic, transparent and scalable approaches to horizon scanning. At the same time, it highlights the continued importance of human expertise for interpreting uncertainty, incorporating contextual knowledge and ensuring transparency, legitimacy and accountability in policy decision-making. Rather than advocating full automation, we argue that effective horizon scanning requires ’human-AI collaboration’ that combines computational capabilities with expert judgement. The framework advances the application of AI within foresight and supports more effective integration of evidence into policy processes. It provides a foundation for developing more transparent, adaptive and evidence-informed horizon scanning and highlights priorities for future research on human-AI collaboration in public sector foresight processes.

CORRIGENDUM: Improving food supply chain resilience: a case study of chicken tikka masala (2025 Environ. Res.: Food Syst. 2 045005), Jones, Katharine, Garnett, Kenisha, Burgess, Paul J

Food supply chain resilience can improve food security in the face of environmental disruptions such as climate change, extreme weather, and disease outbreaks. However, there are many definitions of resilience, and there is still a need to understand its components, barriers and enablers, in order to clarify how businesses and governmental regulators can maintain and enhance resilience. This study seeks to understand how resilience is perceived and operationalised by food chain actors. Resilience strategies in a specific supply chain are investigated, focusing on chicken tikka masala manufactured by a small and medium enterprise (SME). A theoretical framework, based on robustness, recovery, and reorientation, is presented and applied to analyse resilience strategies. The research employs an embedded case study approach comprising surveys, interviews, and a workshop with supply chain actors across three tiers. Thematic analysis reveals that actors prioritise robustness and recovery strategies. However, reorientation strategies, such as long-term adaptability and early warning systems, receive less focus due to perceived investment and capacity constraints, while visibility and collaboration are curtailed in SMEs with limited influence with larger actors. The study highlights key barriers such as fragmented information flows, limited government policy alignment, and challenges of digital technology adoption. Recommendations include the need for policy consultation frameworks that improve policymakers’ understanding of food supply chains and actors’ decision-making processes, and for a strategic vision for the food system that fosters resilience to long-term environmental change.

Coffee production faces major sustainability issues and consumers increasingly look to choose certified coffee as awareness grows. While consumers’ understanding of sustainability issues is limited, independent voluntary certification schemes such as Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and certified organic—three high-profile schemes—can play a role in future-proofing coffee production through standard-setting. These schemes can also inform consumers about sustainability issues from economic, environmental, and social perspectives, thus driving up demand for sustainably grown coffee, and supporting an enabling environment for farmers and coffee-producing countries to improve the status quo. Sustainably grown coffee ensures that farmers sustain production while protecting the environment and the income that farmers rely on to maintain their livelihood. Based on a thematic analysis and synthesis of previous studies, this paper examines the social, economic, and environmental effects of voluntary certification schemes for coffee production. It evaluates the current state of coffee production and explores how certification schemes can be effective in encouraging more sustainable practices among producers. Three major voluntary certification schemes are evaluated to identify the impacts on producers, including key barriers and enablers to comply with sustainability standards and to determine how fit-for-purpose certification schemes are in assuring future sustainable coffee production.

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

The European Food Safety Authority's has established procedures for the identification of emerging risk in food and feed. The main objectives are to: (i) to carry out activities aiming at identifying, assessing and disseminating information on emerging issues and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations; (ii) promote the identification of data sources and data collection and /or data generation in prioritised emerging issues; and the (iii) evaluate of the collected information and identify of emerging risks. The objective(s) of the Standing Working Group on Emerging Risks (SWG‐ER) is to collaborate with EFSA on the emerging risks identification (ERI) procedure and provide strategic direction for EFSA work building on past and ongoing projects related to EFSA ERI procedure. The SWG‐ER considered the ERI methodologies in place and results obtained by EFSA. It was concluded that a systematic approach to the identification of emerging issues based on experts’ networks is the major strength of the procedure but at present, it is mainly focused on single issues, over short to medium time horizons, no consistent weighting or ranking is applied and clear governance of emerging risks with follow‐up actions is missing. The analysis highlighted weaknesses with respect to data collection, analysis and integration. No methodology is in place to estimate the value of the procedure outputs in terms of avoided risk and there is urgent need for a communication strategy that addresses the lack of data and knowledge uncertainty and addresses risk perception issues. Recommendations were given in three areas: (i) Further develop a food system‐based approach including the integration of social sciences to improve understanding of interactions and dynamics between actors and drivers and the development of horizon scanning protocols; (ii) Improve data processing pipelines to prepare big data analytics, implement a data validation system and develop data sharing agreements to explore mutual benefits; and (iii) Revise the EFSA procedure for emerging risk identification to increase transparency and improve communication.

The governance dimensions of water reuse scheme development and operation, such as policies and regulatory frameworks, and public involvement and stakeholder collaboration, can serve to both facilitate and constrain wider adoption of water reuse practices. This paper explores the significance and underlying structure of the key governance challenges facing the water reuse sector in Europe. It presents empirical evidence from interviews and focus group sessions conducted at four water reuse schemes: an indirect potable reuse scheme at Torreele (Belgium), the urban reuse of treated municipal wastewater at the London Olympic Park (United Kingdom) and at Sabadell (Spain), and the reuse of agro-industrial effluent for irrigation at Capitanata (Italy). The findings underscore the importance of clarity in policy arrangements around water reuse, as well as of the financial competitiveness of reuse projects compared to alternative water supply options. Operators of water reuse schemes expressed a preference for water quality standards, which focus on appropriateness for use rather than over-emphasise the waters’ origin so that unnecessary treatment and costs can be avoided. Positive public support was widely acknowledged as an important factor in the success or failure of water reuse schemes. We conclude that constructive institutional relationships underpin many of the challenges faced by reuse scheme operators and that greater emphasis should be given to building confidence and gaining trust in water service providers through early identification of how governance regimes shape the viability of new schemes.