Sue Vink

Because the 2015 Paris Agreement will not prevent dangerous climate change, there is an urgent need to develop an alternative mitigation strategy. Even if all national commitments are met and technological breakthroughs accelerate the transition to emission-free technologies, the 2°C target will still be overshot due to systemic inertia from existing greenhouse gases, warming oceans, and the decades required to replace existing infrastructure. Compounding risks are: (a) Most policy-makers greatly underestimate the scale, severity and duration of climate change, and the non-linear impacts of lags, feedbacks and tipping points; (b) Although all IPCC mitigation scenarios require the large-scale deployment of climate geoengineering, many methods may not be politically and/or technologically feasible; (c) While most scenarios assume climate overshoot will occur before safe climates are re-established, many human and environmental systems cannot adapt to higher temperatures. Temperatures likely to cause catastrophic and/or irreversible damage pose unacceptable risks. Developing a viable mitigation strategy will require prioritising research both on climate overshoot risks, and on the relative effectiveness, risks, costs and timelines of potential mitigation methods. Since geoengineering is required to rapidly mitigate dangerous overshoot, the viability and risks of all potential geoengineering methods need to be investigated. This research is a prerequisite for evaluating the comparative benefits, costs and risks of using, or not using, various forms of mitigation. A realistic risk management plan can then be developed containing mitigation targets that are precise, measurable and attainable, with clear constraints on the magnitude and duration of both climate overshoot risks and mitigation methods.

Because the 2015 Paris Agreement will not prevent dangerous climate change, there is an urgent need to develop an alternative mitigation strategy. Even if all national commitments are met and technological breakthroughs accelerate the transition to emission-free technologies, the 2°C target will still be overshot due to systemic inertia from existing greenhouse gases, warming oceans, and the decades required to replace existing infrastructure. Compounding factors include: (a) Most policy-makers greatly underestimate the scale, severity and duration of climate change, and the non-linear impacts of lags, feedbacks and tipping points; (b) Although all IPCC mitigation scenarios require the large-scale deployment of climate geoengineering, many methods may not be politically and/or technologically feasible; (c) While most scenarios assume climate overshoot will occur before safe climates are re-established, many human and environmental systems cannot adapt to higher temperatures. Temperatures likely to cause catastrophic and/or irreversible damage pose unacceptable risks. Developing a viable mitigation strategy will require prioritising research both on climate overshoot risks, and on the relative effectiveness, risks, costs and timelines of potential mitigation methods. Since geoengineering is required to rapidly mitigate dangerous overshoot, the viability and risks of all potential geoengineering methods need to be investigated. This research is a prerequisite for evaluating the comparative benefits, costs and risks of using, or not using, various forms of mitigation. A risk management plan can then be developed containing mitigation targets that are precise, measurable and attainable, with clear constraints on the magnitude and duration of both climate overshoot risks and mitigation methods.

Objectives At present, coal seam gas (CSG) is the most common form of unconventional natural gas development occurring in Australia. Few studies have been conducted to explore the potential health impacts of CSG development on children and adolescents. This analysis presents age-specific hospitalisation rates for a child and adolescent cohort in three study areas in Queensland. Methods Three geographic areas were selected: a CSG area, a coal mining area, and a rural area with no mining activity. Changes in area-specific hospital admissions were investigated over the period 1995–2011 in a series of negative binomial regression analyses for 19 International Classification of Diseases (ICD) chapters, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Results The strongest associations were found for respiratory diseases in 0–4 year olds (7% increase [95% CI 4%, 11%] and 6% increase [95% CI 2%, 10%] in the CSG area relative to the coal mining and rural areas, respectively) and 10–14 year olds (9% increase [95% CI 1%, 18%] and 11% increase [95% CI 1%, 21%] in the CSG area compared to the coal mining and rural areas, respectively). The largest effect size was for blood/immune diseases in 5–9 year olds in the CSG area (467% increase [95% CI 139%, 1244%]) compared to the rural area with no mining activity. Conclusions for Practice Higher rates of hospitalisation existed in the CSG area for certain ICD chapters and paediatric age groups, suggesting potential age-specific health impacts. This study provides insights on associations that should be explored further in terms of child and adolescent health.

Understanding the molecular mechanisms of organismal response to human-derived ecosystem change is recognised as a critical tool in monitoring and managing impacts, especially in freshwater systems. Fundamental to this approach is to determine the genes involved in responding to ecosystem change and detect modifications to their expression and activity in natural populations. Potential targets for this approach include well-known detoxification genes that are upregulated in response to stress. Here, we tested whether expression of such genes varied in association with differences in ecosystem health and could be detected in the field. We sampled populations of the freshwater midge, Cricotopus draysoni, from two geographically proximate sites in southeast Queensland, Australia, which differed in their ecosystem health, at multiple time points. We assessed transcriptome-level differential gene expression and predicted greatest differential expression between sites, associated with organismal responses to local physico-chemical factors. In contrast, we observed a clear and dramatic difference in gene expression – including of known detoxification genes – between time points, specifically between periods at the start and end of the austral summer rainfall when in-stream water levels are most different. These data suggest that these waterways experience greatest pollution load when water levels are high following rainfall events.

The development of the coal seam gas industry in Australia has led to the extraction of large volumes of relatively salty groundwater. Once treated, this coal seam water (CSW) is being made available for irrigation and it is an opportunity for landholders to increase the level and reliability of their agricultural production. This paper reviews the use of CSW and approaches to sustainable agriculture. The review suggests that, barring technical and economic constraints, re-injection of treated CSW into stressed agricultural aquifers may provide more equitable access to water and broader economic benefits than current location-specific irrigation schemes.

The majority of Australia’s coal seam gas (CSG) reserves are in Queensland, where the industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. Despite concerns, health data have not been examined alongside CSG development. This study examined hospitalisation rates as a function of CSG development activity in Queensland, during the period 1995–2011. Admissions data were examined with CSG well numbers, which served as a proxy for CSG development activity. Time series models were used to assess changes in hospitalisation rates for periods of “low”, “medium”, “high”, and “intense” activity compared to a period of “very low” activity, adjusting for covariates. “All-cause” hospitalisation rates increased monotonically with increasing gas well development activity in females (324.0 to 390.3 per 1000 persons) and males (294.2 to 335.4 per 1000 persons). Hospitalisation rates for “Blood/immune” conditions generally increased for both sexes. Female and male hospitalisation rates for “Circulatory” conditions decreased with increasing CSG activity. Hospitalisation rates were generally low for reproductive and birth outcomes; no clear associations were observed. This study showed some outcomes were associated with increasing CSG development activity. However, as a condition of data access, the population and outcomes were aggregated to a broad geographic study area rather than using higher geographic resolution data. Higher resolution data, as well as other data sources, should be explored. Further research should be conducted with an expanded time period to determine if these trends continue as the industry grows.