Hawela Moonga

Antimalarials are central to Zambia′s strategies for malaria control and elimination. Antimalarial drug resistance poses a significant threat to the effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies and preventive strategies such as sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine chemoprevention in pregnant women. In this genomic surveillance study, dried blood spots and epidemiological data were collected from confirmed Plasmodium falciparum cases at 61 health facilities across all 10 Zambian provinces from March to July 2023. A total of 2,486 samples were genotyped using multiplexed amplicon sequencing to identify mutations in 12 genes associated with resistance to seven antimalarial drugs. Several mutations potentially associated with artemisinin partial resistance were identified, including the validated k13 P574L marker (0.66% adjusted national prevalence) and the candidate k13 P441L marker (1.39%). The distribution of mutations was heterogeneous, with many health facilities reporting resistance markers in more than 5% of infections, and in some instances, up to 46%. The mdr1 N86 genotype, associated with decreased lumefantrine susceptibility, was found in all samples. Very high levels of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance markers were observed, including dhps K540E (93.26%). The variable prevalence of resistance markers underscores the need for routine molecular surveillance to detect emergent resistance and guide malaria control strategies. These results also call for studies to understand the clinical implications of these mutations and ensure the continued efficacy of antimalarial interventions in Zambia.

Malaria burden in Zambia has significantly declined over the last decade because of improved coverage of several key malaria interventions (e.g., vector control, case management, bed net distributions, and enhanced surveillance/responses). Campaign-based mass drug administration (MDA) and focal MDA (fMDA) were assessed in a trial in Southern Province, Zambia, to identify its utility in elimination efforts. As part of the study, a longitudinal cohort was visited and tested (by PCR targeting the 18s rRNA and a Plasmodium falciparum–specific rapid diagnostic test [RDT] from SD Bioline) every month for the trial duration (18 months). Overall, there was high concordance (> 97%) between the PCR and RDT results, using the PCR as the gold standard. The RDTs had high specificity and negative predictive values (98.5% and 98.6%, respectively) but low sensitivity (53.0%) and a low positive predictive value (53.8%). There was evidence for persistent antigenemia affecting the low specificity of the RDT, while false-negative RDTs were associated with a lower parasite density than true positive RDTs. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species identified, with 98.3% of all positive samples containing P. falciparum. Of these, 97.5% were mono-infections and 0.8% coinfections with one other species. Plasmodium malariae was found in 1.4% of all positive samples (50% mono-infections and 50% coinfections with P. falciparum), whereas Plasmodium ovale was found in 1.1% of all positive samples (90% mono-infections and 10% coinfections with P. falciparum). Although MDA/fMDA appeared to reduce P. malariae prevalence, P. ovale prevalence appeared unchanged.

Over the past decade, Zambia has made substantial progress against malaria and has recently set the ambitious goal of eliminating by 2021. In the context of very high vector control and improved access to malaria diagnosis and treatment in Southern Province, we implemented a community-randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of four rounds of community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) and household-level MDA (focal MDA) with dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHAP) implemented between December 2014 and February 2016. The mass treatment campaigns achieved relatively good household coverage (63–79%), were widely accepted by the community (ranging from 87% to 94%), and achieved very high adherence to the DHAP regimen (81–96%). Significant declines in all malaria study end points were observed, irrespective of the exposure group, with the overall parasite prevalence during the peak transmission season declining by 87.2% from 31.3% at baseline to 4.0% in 2016 at the end of the trial. Children in areas of lower transmission (< 10% prevalence at baseline) that received four MDA rounds had a 72% (95% CI = 12–91%) reduction in malaria parasite prevalence as compared with those with the standard of care without any mass treatment. Mass drug administration consistently had the largest short-term effect size across study end points in areas of lower transmission following the first two MDA rounds. In the context of achieving very high vector control coverage and improved access to diagnosis and treatment for malaria, our results suggest that MDA should be considered for implementation in African settings for rapidly reducing malaria outcomes in lower transmission settings.

Mass drug administration (MDA) with artemisinin combination therapy is a potentially useful tool for malaria elimination programs, but its success depends partly on drug effectiveness and treatment coverage in the targeted population. As part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Southern Province, Zambia evaluating the impact of MDA and household focal MDA (fMDA) with dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHAp), sub-studies were conducted investigating population drug adherence rates and effectiveness of DHAp as administered in clearing Plasmodium falciparum infections following household mass administration. Adherence information was reported for 181,534 of 336,821 DHAp (53.9%) treatments administered during four rounds of MDA/fMDA, of which 153,197 (84.4%) reported completing the full course of DHAp. The proportion of participants fully adhering to the treatment regimen differed by MDA modality (MDA versus fMDA), RDT status, and whether the first dose was observed by those administering treatments. Among a subset of participants receiving DHAp and selected for longitudinal follow-up, 58 were positive for asexual-stage P. falciparum infection by microscopy at baseline. None of the 45 participants followed up at days 3 and/or 7 were slide positive for asexual-stage parasitemia. For those with longer term follow-up, one participant was positive 47 days after treatment, and two additional participants were positive after 69 days, although these two were determined to be new infections by genotyping. High completion of a 3-day course of DHAp and parasite clearance in the context of household MDA are promising as Zambia’s National Malaria Programme continues to weigh appropriate interventions for malaria elimination.

A mass drug administration trial was carried out in Southern Province, Zambia, between 2014 and 2016, in conjunction with a standard of care package that included improved surveillance, increased access to malaria case management, and sustained high levels of vector control coverage. This was preceded by mass test and treatment in the same area from 2011 to 2013. Concordant decreases in malaria prevalence in Southern Province and deaths attributed to malaria in Zambia over this time suggest that these strategies successfully reduced the malaria burden. Genetic epidemiological studies were used to assess the consequences of these interventions on parasite population structure. Analysis of parasite material derived from 1,620 rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-positive individuals obtained from studies to evaluate trial outcomes revealed a reduction in the average complexity of infection and consequential increase in the proportion of infections that harbored a single parasite genome (monogenomic infections). Highly related parasites, consistent with inbreeding, were detected after interventions were deployed. Geographical analysis indicated that the highly related infections were both clustered focally and dispersed across the study area. These findings provide genetic evidence for a reduced parasite population, with indications of inbreeding following the application of comprehensive interventions, including drug-based campaigns, that reduced the malaria burden in Southern Province. Genetic data additionally revealed the relationship between individual infections in the context of these population-level patterns, which has the potential to provide useful data for stratification and targeting of interventions to reduce the malaria burden.

As Zambia continues to reduce its malaria incidence and target elimination in Southern Province, there is a need to identify factors that can reintroduce parasites and sustain malaria transmission. To examine the relative contributions of types of human mobility on malaria prevalence, this analysis quantifies the proportion of the population having recently traveled during both peak and nonpeak transmission seasons over the course of 2 years and assesses the relationship between short-term travel and malaria infection status. Among all residents targeted by mass drug administration in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, 602,620 rapid diagnostic tests and recent travel histories were collected during four campaign rounds occurring between December 2014 and February 2016. Rates of short-term travel in the previous 2 weeks fluctuated seasonally from 0.3% to 1.2%. Travel was significantly associated with prevalent malaria infection both seasonally and overall (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.55; 95% CI: 2.28–2.85). The strength of association between travel and malaria infection varied by travelers’ origin and destination, with those recently traveling to high-prevalence areas from low-prevalence areas experiencing the highest odds of malaria infection (AOR: 7.38). Long-lasting insecticidal net usage while traveling was associated with a relative reduction in infections (AOR: 0.74) compared with travelers not using a net. Although travel was directly associated with only a small fraction of infections, importation of malaria via human movement may play an increasingly important role in this elimination setting as transmission rates continue to decline.

Four malaria indicator surveys (MIS) were conducted in Zambia between 2006 and 2012 to evaluate malaria control scale-up. Nationally, coverage of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) increased over this period, while parasite prevalence in children 1–59 months decreased dramatically between 2006 and 2008, but then increased from 2008 to 2010. We assessed the relative effects of vector control coverage and climate variability on malaria parasite prevalence over this period. Nationally-representative MISs were conducted in April-June of 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 to collect household-level information on malaria control interventions such as IRS, ITN ownership and use, and child parasite prevalence by microscopic examination of blood smears. We fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to assess the association between IRS and ITN coverage and climate variability and malaria parasite prevalence. We created predictions of the spatial distribution of malaria prevalence at each time point and compared results of varying IRS, ITN, and climate inputs to assess their relative contributions to changes in prevalence. Nationally, the proportion of households owning an ITN increased from 37.8 % in 2006 to 64.3 % in 2010 and 68.1 % in 2012, with substantial heterogeneity sub-nationally. The population-adjusted predicted child malaria parasite prevalence decreased from 19.6 % in 2006 to 10.4 % in 2008, but rose to 15.3 % in 2010 and 13.5 % in 2012. We estimated that the majority of this prevalence increase at the national level between 2008 and 2010 was due to climate effects on transmission, although there was substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level in the relative contribution of changing climate and ITN availability. We predict that if climate factors preceding the 2010 survey were the same as in 2008, the population-adjusted prevalence would have fallen to 9.9 % nationally. These results suggest that a combination of climate factors and reduced intervention coverage in parts of the country contributed to both the reduction and rebound in malaria parasite prevalence. Unusual rainfall patterns, perhaps related to moderate El Niño conditions, may have contributed to this variation. Zambia has demonstrated considerable success in scaling up vector control. This analysis highlights the importance of accounting for climate variability when using cross-sectional data for evaluation of malaria control efforts.

Long-lasting, insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the most widely accepted and applied malaria vector control methods. However, evidence that incremental impact is achieved when they are combined remains limited and inconsistent. Fourteen population clusters of approximately 1000 residents each in Zambia’s Luangwa and Nyimba districts, which had high pre-existing usage rates (81.7 %) of pyrethroid-impregnated LLINs were quasi-randomly assigned to receive IRS with either of two pyrethroids, namely deltamethrin [Wetable granules (WG)] and lambdacyhalothrin [capsule suspension (CS)], with an emulsifiable concentrate (EC) or CS formulation of the organophosphate pirimiphos methyl (PM), or with no supplementary vector control measure. Diagnostic positivity of patients tested for malaria by community health workers in these clusters was surveyed longitudinally over pre- and post-treatment periods spanning 29 months, over which the treatments were allocated and re-allocated in advance of three sequential rainy seasons. Supplementation of LLINs with PM CS offered the greatest initial level of protection against malaria in the first 3 months of application (incremental protective efficacy (IPE) [95 % confidence interval (CI)] = 0.63 [CI 0.57, 0.69], P < 0.001), followed by lambdacyhalothrin (IPE [95 % CI] = 0.31 [0.10, 0.47], P = 0.006) and PM EC (IPE, 0.23 [CI 0.15, 0.31], P < 0.001) and then by deltamethrin (IPE [95 % CI] = 0.19 [−0.01, 0.35], P = 0.064). Neither pyrethroid formulation provided protection beyond 3 months after spraying, but the protection provided by both PM formulations persisted undiminished for longer periods: 6 months for CS and 12 months for EC. The CS formulation of PM provided greater protection than the combined pyrethroid IRS formulations throughout its effective life IPE [95 % CI] = 0.79 [0.75, 0.83] over 6 months. The EC formulation of PM provided incremental protection for the first 3 months (IPE [95 % CI] = 0.23 [0.15, 0.31]) that was approximately equivalent to the two pyrethroid formulations (lambdacyhalothrin, IPE [95 % CI] = 0.31 [0.10, 0.47] and deltamethrin, IPE [95 % CI] = 0.19 [−0.01, 0.35]) but the additional protection provided by the former, apparently lasted an entire year. Where universal coverage targets for LLIN utilization has been achieved, supplementing LLINs with IRS using pyrethroids may reduce malaria transmission below levels achieved by LLIN use alone, even in settings where pyrethroid resistance occurs in the vector population. However, far greater reduction of transmission can be achieved under such conditions by supplementing LLINs with IRS using non-pyrethroid insecticide classes, such as organophosphates, so this is a viable approach to mitigating and managing pyrethroid resistance.

Repeat national household surveys suggest highly variable malaria transmission and increasing coverage of high-impact malaria interventions throughout Zambia. Many areas of very low malaria transmission, especially across southern and central regions, are driving efforts towards sub-national elimination. Reactive case detection (RCD) is conducted in Southern Province and urban areas of Lusaka in connection with confirmed incident malaria cases presenting to a community health worker (CHW) or clinic and suspected of being the result of local transmission. CHWs travel to the household of the incident malaria case and screen individuals living in adjacent houses in urban Lusaka and within 140 m in Southern Province for malaria infection using a rapid diagnostic test, treating those testing positive with artemether–lumefantrine. Reactive case detection improves access to health care and increases the capacity for the health system to identify malaria infections. The system is useful for targeting malaria interventions, and was instrumental for guiding focal indoor residual spraying in Lusaka during the 2014/2015 spray season. Variations to maximize impact of the current RCD protocol are being considered, including the use of anti-malarials with a longer lasting, post-treatment prophylaxis. The RCD system in Zambia is one example of a malaria elimination surveillance system which has increased access to health care within rural communities while leveraging community members to build malaria surveillance capacity.

Reactive case detection (RACD) for malaria is a strategy that may be used to complement passive surveillance, as passive surveillance fails to identify infections that are asymptomatic or do not seek care. The spatial and seasonal patterns of incident (index) cases reported at a single clinic in Chongwe District were explored. A RACD strategy was implemented from June 2012 to June 2013 in a single catchment area in Chongwe District. Incident (index) cases recorded at the clinic were followed up at their household, and all household contacts were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). GPS coordinates were taken at each index household. Spatial analyses were conducted to assess characteristics related to clustering, cluster detection and spatial variation in risk of index houses. Effects of season (rainy versus dry), distance to the clinic and distance to the main road were considered as modifying factors. Lastly, logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with the proportion of household contacts testing RDT positive. A total of 426 index households were enrolled, with 1,621 household contacts (45% RDT positive). Two space–time clusters were identified in the rainy season, with ten times and six times higher risk than expected. Significantly increased spatial clustering of index households was found in the rainy season as compared to the dry season (based on K-function methodology). However, no seasonal difference in mapped spatial intensity of index households was identified. Logistic regression analysis identified two main factors associated with a higher proportion of RDT positive household contacts. There was a 41% increased odds of RDT positive household contacts in households where the index case was under 5 years of age [OR = 1.41, 95% confidence intervals (1.15, 1.73)]. For every 500-m increase in distance from the road, there was a 5% increased odds of RDT positive household contacts [OR = 1.05 (1.02, 1.07)], controlling for season. Areas of increased report of malaria persist after controlling for distance to the clinic and main road. Clinic-based interventions will miss asymptomatic, non-care seeking infections located farther from the road. RACD may identify additional infections missed at the clinic.