Matyas Ripszam

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year⁻¹ for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year⁻¹ for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.