Giuliana Zanchi

Climate change is generally expected to have a positive effect on weathering rates, due to the strong temperature dependence of the weathering process. Important feedback mechanisms such as changes in soil moisture, tree growth and organic matter decomposition can affect the response of weathering rates to climate change. In this study, the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE, with mechanistic descriptions of tree growth, organic matter decomposition, weathering, hydrology and ion exchange processes, is used to investigate the effects of future climate scenarios on base cation weathering rates. In total, 544 productive coniferous forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory are modelled, and differences in weathering responses to changes in climate from two Global Climate Models are investigated. The study shows that weathering rates at the simulated sites are likely to increase, but not to the extent predicted by a direct response to elevated air temperatures. Besides the result that increases in soil temperatures are less evident than those in air temperature, the study shows that soil moisture availability has a strong potential to limit the expected response to increased temperature. While changes in annual precipitation may not indicate further risk for more severe water deficits, seasonal differences show a clear difference between winters and summers. Taking into account the seasonal variation, the study shows that reduced soil water availability in the summer seasons will strongly limit the expected gain in weathering associated with higher temperatures.

The study investigated the effects of forest residue extraction on tree growth and base cations concentrations in soil water under different climatic conditions in Sweden. For this purpose, the dynamic model ForSAFE was used to compare the effects of whole-tree harvesting and stem harvesting on tree biomass and the soil solution over time at 6 different forest sites. The study confirmed the results from experimental sites showing a temporary reduction of base cation concentration in the soil solution for a period of 20–30 years after whole-tree harvesting. The model showed that this was mainly caused by the reduced inputs of organic material after residue extraction and thereby reduced nutrient mineralisation in the soil. The model results also showed that whole-tree harvesting can affect tree growth at nitrogen-poor forest sites, such as the ones in northern Sweden, due to the decrease of nitrogen availability after residue removal. Possible ways of reducing this impact could be to compensate the losses with fertilisation or extract residue without foliage in areas of Sweden with low nitrogen deposition. The study highlighted the need to better understand the medium- and long-term effects of whole-tree harvesting on tree growth, since the results suggested that reduced tree growth after whole-tree harvesting could be only temporary. However, these results do not account for prolonged extraction of forest residues that could progressively deplete nutrient pools and lead to permanent effects on tree growth.

Nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests has the potential to increase tree growth and carbon (C) sequestration, but it also means a risk of N leaching. Dynamic models can, if the important processes are well described, play an important role in assessing benefits and risks of nitrogen fertilization. The aim of this study was to test if the ForSAFE model is able to simulate correctly the effects of N fertilization when considering different levels of N availability in the forest. The model was applied for three sites in Sweden, representing low, medium and high nitrogen deposition. Simulations were performed for scenarios with and without fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on tree growth was largest at the low deposition site, whereas the effect on N leaching was more pronounced at the high deposition site. For soil organic carbon (SOC) the effects were generally small, but in the second forest rotation SOC was slightly higher after fertilization, especially at the low deposition site. The ForSAFE simulations largely confirm the N saturation theory which state that N will not be retained in the forest when the ecosystem is N saturated, and we conclude that the model can be a useful tool in assessing effects of N fertilization.

The demand of renewable energy has increased the interest in whole-tree harvesting. The sustainability of whole-tree harvesting after clear-cutting, from an acidification point of view, depends on two factors: the present acidification status and the further loss of buffering capacity at harvesting. The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between these two factors at 26 sites along an acidification gradient in Sweden, to divide the sites into risk classes, and to examine the geographical distribution of them in order to provide policy-relevant insights. The present status was represented by the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in soil solution, and the loss of buffering capacity was represented by the estimated exceedance of critical biomass harvesting (CBH). The sites were divided into three risk classes combining ANC and exceedance of CBH. ANC and exceedance of CBH were negatively correlated, and most sites had either ANC < 0 and exceedance (high risk) or ANC > 0 and no exceedance (low risk). There was a geographical pattern, with the high risk class concentrated to southern Sweden, which was mainly explained by higher historical sulfur deposition and site productivity in the south. The risk classes can be used in the formulation of policies on whole-tree harvesting and wood ash recycling.

The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemical model ForSAFE. The hydrology concept was evaluated against data collected at Svartberget in the Vindeln Research Forest in Northern Sweden. The results show that the new concept allows simulation of a saturated and an unsaturated zone in the soil as well as water flow that reaches the stream comparable to measurements. The most relevant differences compared to streamflow measurements are that the model simulates a higher base flow in winter and lower flow peaks after snowmelt. These differences are mainly caused by the assumptions made to regulate the percolation at the bottom of the simulated soil columns. The capability for simulating lateral flows and a saturated zone in ForSAFE can greatly improve the simulation of chemical exchange in the soil and export of elements from the soil to watercourses. Such a model can help improve the understanding of how environmental changes in the forest landscape will influence chemical loads to surface waters.