Hamidreza Ghaffarzadeh

This is a two-phase study to investigate the socioeconomic impacts of the Caspian Sea Level Rise (CSLR) on Anzali International Wetland at the southern fringe of the Caspian Sea. In the first phase, a Landsat satellite image (2013) and digital elevation model (DEM) of the wetland were used to determine the areas vulnerable to the CSLR-induced flooding under four water level rise scenarios of 0.2 m, 0.6 m, 1 m, and 1.4 m. Then in the second phase, the possible effects of the CSLR on some market values of Anzali Wetland and the livelihood of the wetland-dependent communities were assessed based on the loss of agricultural and fishing products (as two main sources of livelihood for local people), as well as the loss of different land uses surrounding the wetland. According to the results, under the most optimistic CSLR scenario of 0.2 m, the wetland area will be expanded from 19,095 to 24,942 ha, while an expansion of 19,353 ha (from the current area of 19,095 ha to 38,448 ha) is expected under the most pessimistic CSLR scenario of 1.4 m. This will affect a minimum number of eight villages, including 4,518 inhabitants (under the CSLR scenario of 0.2 m) and a maximum number of 41 villages including 22,493 inhabitants (under the 1.4 CSLR scenario). These people will have to displace and move from their homes, which leads to several social ills. Depending on the severity of water level rise under various scenarios, 545, 646, 670, and 699 ha of the total area (790 ha) of fish ponds will be destructed, and total numbers of 70, 76, 83, and 93 units out of the 172 active industrial units are predicted to be inundated. In sum, the total loss values (damage to agriculture and fish farming) under the CSLR scenarios of 0.2, 0.6, 1, and 1.4 m were estimated to be $63 million (USD), $117 million, $151 million, and $184 million, respectively. Our research findings can help policy makers develop proper adaptation measures to prohibit or reduce the possible socio-economic damage caused by the CSLR in the future.

Anzali is one of the 18 Iranian wetlands of international importance listed in Ramsar Convention. This unique ecosystem in the world with high ecological diversity is highly threatened by various factors such as pollutants, sedimentation, unauthorized development of urban infrastructure, over-harvesting of wetland resources, land use changes, and invasive species. Among which, one of the most challenging destructive factors, land use change, was scrutinized in this study. For this, remotely sensed data and Geographical Information System (GIS) were used to detect land changes and corresponding impacts on the study area over a 38-year period from 1975 to 2013.. Changes in the study area were traced in five dominant land-use classes at four time intervals of 1975, 1989, 2007, and 2013. Accordingly, changes in different categories were quantified using satellite images. The methodology adopted in this study includes an integrated approach of supervised classification, zonal and object-oriented image analyses. According to the Kappa coefficient of 0.84 for the land use map of 2013, the overall accuracy of the method was estimated at 89 %, which indicated that this method can be useful for monitoring and behavior analysis of other Iranian wetlands. The obtained results revealed extensive land use changes over the study period. As the results suggest, between the years 1975 to 2013, approximately 6500 ha (∼69 %) rangeland area degraded. Further, urban and agricultural areas have been extended by 2982 ha (∼74 %) and 2228 ha (∼6 %), respectively. This could leave a negative impact on water quality of the wetland.