Marija Drobnjaković

Understanding migration intentions in rural areas is increasingly important in the context of demographic decline and rural depopulation. While considerable attention has been devoted to the determinants of rural out-migration, less is known about the factors underlying individuals’ intentions to stay in rural areas. This study examines the socioeconomic and demographic predictors of migration intentions among rural residents in Serbia. The analysis draws on survey data from 954 respondents across 111 rural settlements in seven municipalities in the Šumadija and Western Serbia Region. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to examine the factors associated with three migration intention categories: stay, indecisive, and leave. The regression analysis was based on 609 complete cases. The findings show that staying is the predominant stated migration intention among respondents. In the multivariable analysis, age, engagement in agricultural activities, perceived living standards, and municipality of residence were significantly associated with migration intentions overall. Older respondents and those engaged in agriculture had higher odds of intending to stay rather than leave, whereas higher perceived living standards were associated with being undecided rather than intending to leave. Migration intentions also varied significantly across municipalities after accounting for the individual characteristics included in the model, indicating the relevance of territorial context. These findings contribute to the literature on rural mobility and immobility by demonstrating that intentions to stay are shaped by a combination of socioeconomic and demographic factors. The results suggest that policies aimed at improving rural living conditions and supporting sustainable agricultural activities may contribute to strengthening rural population stability.

This paper examines the interrelation between functional transformation and demographic change in small towns in Serbia, focusing on temporal and spatial disparities and uneven development trajectories. Small towns are identified according to Eurostat methodology and its adaptation for Serbia (Degree of urbanisation (DEGURBA) level 2). The analysis adopts a longitudinal perspective spanning four decades, based on the Census data for three selected years: 1981, the peak of industrial development; 2002, marking industrial collapse and transition; and 2022, which illustrates the current state. Functional transformation is explored through thenar diagrams, which capture employment shifts across the main economy’s sectors, harmonized and categorized in line with the official Classification of Activities. Results revealed a significant correlation between functional shifts and demographic trends, as well as the fact that functional transformation does not lead to uniform demographic outcomes across the small towns, but rather produces divergent development trajectories. Negative functional shifts associated with severe demographic decline are common for the small towns with a strong orientation toward the industry sector. Also, some of the small towns that faced a significant shift to the service economy experienced a pronounced demographic decline. Conversely, some towns demonstrate positive adjustment by restructuring their economies towards specific service activities and redefining their roles in the local development and settlements network. The findings challenge the assumption that tertiarization represents a sustainable development path for small towns. By linking long-term demographic change with functional restructuring, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of small-town development in post-socialist contexts.

Individuals who remain in rural areas are commonly framed as those who have had limited or no opportunity to leave. However, the theory of immobility argues that staying should be observed as a separate voluntary process and personal decision. This paper focuses on the population's intentions to stay in or leave rural areas in Serbia. It aims to explore differences and similarities between local communities and among population characteristics. The study area encompasses 161 rural settlements in seven municipalities in Region of Sumadija and Western Serbia. The survey was conducted using a standardized electronic or paper questionnaire, with a total sample of 954 respondents. Applied tests included descriptive and inferential statistics and ANOVA. Results indicate that mobility intention depends on the respondents’ individual features and induces a different immobility patterns in the sample. Contemporary immobility has become a matter of voluntary decision, rather than merely a reflection of a lack of options. About 70.0% of respondents declared that they intend to stay in the settlement where they live. It was established that stayers are middle-aged persons (50–64), predominantly with secondary education, who live in inherited family houses, engaged in various forms of employment, but are strongly connected to agriculture. Migration intentions are expressed by younger and highly educated respondents, and those who are not in a relationship or married. This study introduces the immobility issue into the Serbian rural and migration studies and contributes to the identification of potential directions for future research and policy development regarding rural areas in Serbia.

This paper presents preliminary findings from the RurSitu project, focusing on how residents of rural areas in Šumadija and Western Serbia Region perceive the quality of their local environment and its impact on the decision to stay or leave rural areas. The goal of the paper is to highlight how rural populations assess the beauty of nature and landscape, environmental quality, and quality of food, and how these perceptions shape their broader attitudes toward living in rural areas. The research encompassess seven municipalities in Šumadija and Western Serbia Region (Priboj, Užice, Čajetina, Bajina Bašta, Ljig, Loznica, Valjevo). The method included a survey, where respondents rated on a 5-point scale, performed during 2024. The survey sample included 827 participants, aged 18-94, within five different respondent categories (lifetime stayers, immigrants, newcomers, returners, and occasional stayers). The results pointed out that all respondent categories appreciated the selected issues for staying in rural areas. The beauty of nature and landscape is highly evaluated with a mean of 4.41 points; the environmental quality with 4.31; and quality of food with 4.11. Opposite, the respondents recognised communal equipment (water supply, sewage, waste disposal) as a major threat for environmental quality, which is evaluated with 2.38 points. Deeper analysis indicated that for staying in rural areas the beauty of nature and landscape (4.49, 4.73 points), the environmental quality (4.36, 4.54), and the quality of food (4.36, 4.54) are crucial for respondent category returners and occasional stayers. These positive perceptions appear consistent across municipalities, suggesting a strong connection between rural identity and environmental values. However, there are slight differences in impressions of environmental issues among selected municipalities. By capturing local impressions, this research adds nuance to discussions around life experiences of rural communities, often underrepresented in environmental policy debates.

The research focuses on the phenomenon of settlements network fragmentation as one of the most pronounced spatial processes in the Ground Safety Zone (GSZ). The aim of the study is to determine the causes, spatial patterns and developmental consequences of the settlement fragmentation. The analysis employs a combined methodological approach to capture the scope and dynamics of settlement transformations, characterize the main settlement features, and observe the spatial expression and driving factors of settlement fragmentation. The results show that the settlement network in the GSZ is highly fragmented, with pronounced demographic shrinkage and population redistribution. More than 78% of settlements are small by population size, while a significant increase of demographically endangered and abandoned settlements has been observed. A depopulation belt has formed along the administrative line, indicating the spatial homogenization of the most vulnerable areas. Strong imbalances in population density have been observed, limited to particular local centers. Zones of asymmetry in population distribution have been identified, with the administrative line play a dividing factor between the two settlement systems. The fragmentation process, resulting from the interaction of demographic, economic and political-administrative factors, accelerates further population decline and the loss of vital settlement functions, making this area particularly sensitive and demographically endangered.

Differentiation between rural and urban areas in Serbia is a disputable issue, usually based on the most commonly used indicators which do not reflect the functional and social local features. This research starts from the hypothesis that labor market gender inequality is strongly correlated with urban-rural dichotomy and patriarchal patterns on women's position. It follows the hidden idea of rural life in Serbia beyond the social and economic local features, introducing a gender dimension as a significant element. The cluster analysis is performed, which involves ten variables that represent the differences in women's social and economic engagement. Results enabled the identification of five municipality clusters, whose interpretation illustrated women's current position and significance in shaping (under)developed municipalities and urban/rural societies.

Human capital is an important determinant of individual and overall socio-economic development. In addition to economic parameters, human capital is significantly influenced by the level of formal and informal education attained. Previous research in this area has focused on formal education and the skills acquired concerning better positioning in the labor market. Accordingly, the main objective of the conducted research is to determine the state and level of educational attainment as prerequisite for the developm ent of human capital in Serbia. This analysis is based on a set of indicators that represent the achieved educational attainment with special focus on the young population. It is conducted for the territory of Serbia, on municipal level, which enabled the categorization of municipalities according to educational attainment. Most municipalities in Serbia are characterized by insufficient educational attainment in the local context, or in general. For the purpose of the regional disparities identification, the coefficient of human capital utilization was created, in order to identify the mismatch between education attainment and labor market demand. The research shows that it is crucial to change the general perception of demographic problems and challenges, which will allow the development of applicable and more realistic public policies in the future.

Decentralization is a globally accepted concept of separation, the diversity of structures within the political system, the transfer of resources, activities, and powers in the decision-making process, and the division of tasks from the central government to lower authorities. It is implemented in both developed and developing countries, with different aims and consequences. In Serbia, the urban-centric development model and centralized governance caused rural settlements to become non-viable, and services and opportunities were deprived. This research has been undertaken in order to provide a deeper understanding of the territorial aspect of decentralization in Serbia and how it affects rural areas. It strives to offer a methodological framework for the identification of central settlements in rural areas of Serbia that will serve as a focal point for settlements networking in order to facilitate the spatial integration of rural areas and governance at the local level. This research encompasses (i) the identification of rural nodes as bearers of balanced governance and spatial development; (ii) the delimitation of their gravity sphere; and (iii) the determination of the relationship between settlement organization models and decentralization in Serbia. The research results indicate that identified rural nodes can be valuable to developing a holistic understanding of rural issues, supporting a bottom-up approach and regional disparities mitigation.