Simron Jit Singh

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to climate-related coastal hazards, including sea-level rise, storm surges, and coastal flooding, which are exacerbated by the concentration of their settlements and infrastructure in coastal zones. Although coastal adaptation research in SIDS has expanded, the evidence base remains fragmented, limiting what can be learned about effective adaptation in built-environment contexts. This study conducts a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed research on coastal climate adaptation in SIDS with a built-environment focus (n = 60). We assess the temporal, thematic, and geographic development of this literature and examine how adaptation effectiveness is framed across themes, strategies, and regions. Our findings show strong spatial and thematic concentration, with the evidence base dominated by Pacific and relocation and retreat emerging as the most prominent theme. Temporally, publications rise sharply around 2020–2021, and land raising appears mainly in later years, indicating that evidence for this strategy is drawn from a shorter window than for other strategies. Effectiveness is rarely assessed through explicit outcome indicators and is more often framed through process quality (e.g., governance capacity, contextual fit, social legitimacy, and resources). Effectiveness framings also vary by strategy: legitimacy-oriented criteria (e.g., equity and justice) are most explicit in relocation and retreat, whereas other strategies more often highlight feasibility, maintenance, and institutional and technical capacity. Overall, this study suggests that coastal adaptation in SIDS could be more effective by adopting a multi-criteria, multi-measure approach, in which choices involve negotiating trade-offs and sequencing interventions rather than selecting a single best or most effective strategy.

As the global temperature continues to rise each year, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is increasingly becoming a challenge due to the shrinking size of the remaining carbon budget. Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to reducing their emissions based on national circumstances and priorities. Current emission reduction approaches account for past emissions, per capita emissions, ability to pay for mitigation, and other factors; however, they do not fully account for the social conditions that play a vital role in allocating of the remaining carbon budget. In response, this research formulates a way to equitably allocate the remaining carbon budget among different geographical regions based on their social conditions. It incorporates critical social indicators based on the Doughnut framework to the Contraction and Convergence (C&C) principle, a commonly used allocation mechanism in climate policy, to determine equitable carbon budget shares at the national and regional levels. The share is obtained based on the proportion of current emissions associated with social performance and the proportion of the present population for 158 countries, which are grouped into 12 geographical regions. According to the equitable allocation mechanism, regions with poor social scores are assigned greater carbon budgets and vice versa. That is, countries and regions experiencing large shortfalls in their social foundation (e.g., frequent food famine) are allowed to burn more CO2 to enable food security and rapid industrialization. Thus, this study addresses the challenges of addressing equity issues in carbon emission reduction necessary to achieve the temperature targets outlined in the Paris Agreement by introducing a robust method to account for a country's socio-economic circumstances for an equitable allocation of the remaining carbon budget. Moreover, it establishes a reasonable benchmark for regional decision-making on climate action for countries vulnerable to climate change.

Small islands offer unique conditions for studying human-nature relations. Our study uses the real-world laboratory concept to reflect on a long-term transdisciplinary research process that aimed to facilitate a sustainability transition for an entire island.This article introduces a long-term transdisciplinary research process on the Greek island of Samothraki, aiming at sustainability solutions that are not only scientifically sound, but also co-designed, well received and adopted by the local community. We reflect on 15 years of socioecological research by utilizing the conceptual lens of real-world laboratories (RwLs). We present the research approach pursued on the island, based on a sociometabolic understanding of society-nature interaction, by relating local natural resources (and their self-regenerating capacities) to their social utilization and the resulting environmental pressures. We reflect on the research activities by using an established evaluation framework based on the three RwL principles: the “lab context”, “experiments”, and “interventions”. We describe success and setbacks by integrating, as objects of evaluation, the research process, its outputs, outcomes, and impacts. While we can certainly showcase success in terms of research design, scientific outputs, and institutional outcomes, gauging potential impacts poses a more challenging task.

Recent research suggests that over 75% of resources extracted globally now go toward creating, maintaining, or operating material stocks (MS) to provide societal services like housing, transport, education, and health. However, the integrity of current and future built environments, and the capacity of the system to continue providing services, are threatened by extreme events and sea‐level rise (SLR). This is especially significant for the most disaster‐prone countries in the world: Small Island Developing States. In the aftermath of disasters, complex rebuilding efforts require substantial material and economic resources, oftentimes incurring massive debt. Understanding the composition and dynamics of MS and environmental threats is essential for current and future sustainable development. Drawing on open‐source OpenStreetMap (OSM) data, we conducted a spatially explicit material stock analysis (MSA) for The Bahamas for 2021, where we included buildings and transport MS, and SLR exposure scenarios. Total MS was estimated at 76 million tonnes (Mt) or 191 tonnes per capita (t/cap) of which transport comprises 43%. These MS are likely to increase by 36 Mt in the future. Simulations show that under 1‐, 2‐, or 3‐m SLR scenarios, around 4, 6, and 9 Mt of current MS will be exposed, with transport MS at greatest risk, with over 80% of total exposure in each scenario. Our findings highlight the critical role that key MS play in sustainability and resilience, contributing to the emphasis on effective development planning and climate change adaptation strategies, and to the exploration of the use of OSM data for studying these objectives.

Small island states and jurisdictions face enormous sustainability challenges such as isolation from global markets, tenuous resource availability, heavy reliance on imports to meet basic needs, coastal squeeze, and reduced waste absorption capacity. At the same time, the adverse effects of global environmental change such as global warming, extreme events, and outbreaks of pandemics significantly hinder island economies’ progress towards sustainability, and consistently rank them high on various vulnerability indices. This talk introduces the concept of socio-metabolic risk, defined as systemic risk associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the (in)equitable distribution of derived products and societal services in a socio-ecological system. Drawing on years of socio-metabolic research on islands, I will argue that specific configurations and combinations of material stocks and flows and their ‘resistance to change’ contribute to the system’s proliferation of socio-metabolic risk (SMR). For better or for worse, these influence the system’s ability to consistently and effectively deliver societal services necessary for human survival. Governing SMR would mean governing socio-metabolic flows, and easing resource requirements through green(-blue) infrastructure and nature-based solutions (NBS) to provide crucial societal services. Such interventions will need strategies to reconfigure resource-use patterns and associated services that are sustainable as well as socially equitable.

Resource‐use patterns may entail systemic risks and cascade effects, which consequently inhibit the ability to deliver socioeconomic services. Identifying resource‐use patterns exhibiting systemic risks and reshaping their combinations is a potential lever in realizing the transition to a sustainable, resilient, and resource‐secure system. Using an island context to assess the quantity and composition of resource throughput enables a more comprehensive analysis of these risks. This article presents the first mass‐balance account of socio‐metabolic flows for The Bahamas in 2018, to identify socio‐metabolic risks and cascading effects. Socio‐metabolic risks are systemic risks related to critical resource availability, material circulation integrity, and (in)equities in cost and benefit distributions. We utilize the economy‐wide material flow accounting framework to map the material flow patterns across the economy. In 2018, annual direct material input was estimated at 9.4 t/cap/yr, of which 60% were imports. High masses of waste (1.4 t/cap/yr) remained unrecovered due to the lack of recycling. Total domestic extraction (DE) were dominated by non‐metallic minerals with more than 80%, while marine biomass makes up barely 1% of total DE. Due to its linear, undiversified metabolism, and heavy imports dependency, the system is susceptible to socio‐metabolic risks and cascading effects including low levels of self‐sufficiency, high vulnerability to shocks, commodity price fluctuations, threats to sensitive ecosystems, health impacts, and economic losses, among others. A holistic resource management strategy and nature‐based solutions that consider the trade‐offs and synergies between different resource‐use patterns are critical when exploring potential plans for metabolic risk reduction.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face enormous sustainability challenges such as heavy reliance on imports to meet basic needs, tenuous resource availability, coastal squeeze, and reduced waste absorption capacity. At the same time, the adverse effects of global environmental change such as global warming, extreme events, and outbreaks of pandemics significantly hinder SIDS’ progress towards sustainable development. This paper makes a conceptual contribution by framing the vulnerability of small islands from the perspective of socio-metabolic risk (SMR). SMR is defined as systemic risk associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the (in)equitable distribution of derived products and societal services in a socio-ecological system. We argue that specific configurations and combinations of material stocks and flows on islands and their ‘resistance to change’ contribute to the system’s proliferation of SMR. For better or for worse, these influence the system’s ability to consistently and effectively deliver societal services necessary for survival. By positioning SMR as a subset of systemic risk, the paper illustrates SMRs and tipping points on small islands using insights from three sectors: water, waste, and infrastructure. We also identify effective leverage points and adaptation strategies for building system resilience on small islands. In conclusion, our synthesis suggests that governing SMR on SIDS would mean governing socio-metabolic flows to avoid potential disruptions in the circulation of critical resources and the maintenance of vital infrastructures and services while inducing interventions towards positive social tipping dynamics. Such interventions will need strategies to reconfigure resource-use patterns and associated services that are sustainable and socially equitable.

Small island developing states are often characterized as vulnerable owing to their unique geographies of smallness and remoteness, resource insecurity, and more recently from the impacts of climate change. These vulnerabilities are often manifested in resource insecurity, significant imports, poor waste management, and the inability to develop economies of scale. In effect, sustaining small islands in an era of global environmental change is a task both scholars and policy makers are increasingly grappling with. Can small islands be sustainable? This research examines the social metabolism of an island system, and introduces the concept of “socio-metabolic vulnerability”. As such, this research provides novel insights into the linkages between patterns of resource-use, systemic risks and vulnerability. Results from a local material and energy flow analysis (local-MEFA) for the island of Ndzuwani (Comoros) suggest a very low level of resource-use but at the same time heavy reliance on critical imports that cover vast distances, that are vulnerable to price and climate shocks. Informal activities in resource extraction play an important role in lending both vulnerability and resilience to Ndzuwani. This study adds to the scarce body of literature that argues that small island economies would need to leverage resource-use patterns to build system resilience, along with bold policies and institutions that support material circularity, engage communities and fosters frugal innovation.