Susan C. Morpeth

Objective: To determine whether ivermectin improves outcomes for critically and noncritically ill hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Design: An ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform, randomized, controlled trial. Setting: Hospitals in Pakistan, India, and Ireland between June 11, 2021, and September 9, 2022. Patients: Critically and noncritically ill patients. Interventions: Randomized to ivermectin or no ivermectin (control). Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, assessed on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of –1) and days free of organ support through day 21 in survivors. Analyses used a Bayesian cumulative logistic model. Enrollment was closed for operational futility, following external evidence suggesting no benefit with ivermectin in nonhospitalized patients with COVID-19. Among 61 critically ill patients, the median number of organ support-free days was –1, indicating death was the most common vital outcome (interquartile range [IQR], –1 to 17), for the ivermectin group and –1 (IQR, –1 to 17.25) for the control group (adjusted proportional odds ratio [OR], 0.94; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.40–2.07) and the posterior probability of superiority to control was 44.2%. Among 89 noncritically ill patients, the median number of organ support-free days was 22 (IQR, 18.5–22) for ivermectin and 22 (IQR, 16–22) for control (adjusted proportional OR, 1.04; 95% CrI, 0.48–2.34) and the posterior probability of superiority was 53.7%. Among critically ill patients, hospital survival was 35.1% (13/37) for ivermectin and 37.5% (9/24) for control (adjusted OR, 1.00; 95% CrI, 0.39–2.32), posterior probability of superiority was 50.0%. Among noncritically ill patients, hospital survival was 84.1% (37/44) for ivermectin and 77.8% (35/45) for control (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CrI, 0.5–3.07), posterior probability of superiority was 63.3%. Conclusions: For critically and noncritically ill hospitalized patients with COVID-19, ivermectin was unlikely to improve the primary composite outcome of organ support-free days and hospital survival.

Rhinovirus (RV) is commonly detected in asymptomatic children; hence, its pathogenicity during childhood pneumonia remains controversial. We evaluated RV epidemiology in HIV-uninfected children hospitalized with clinical pneumonia and among community controls. PERCH was a case-control study that enrolled children (1–59 months) hospitalized with severe and very severe pneumonia per World Health Organization clinical criteria and age-frequency-matched community controls in seven countries. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected for all participants, combined, and tested for RV and 18 other respiratory viruses using the Fast Track multiplex real-time PCR assay. RV detection was more common among cases (24%) than controls (21%) (aOR = 1.5, 95%CI:1.3–1.6). This association was driven by the children aged 12–59 months, where 28% of cases vs. 18% of controls were RV-positive (aOR = 2.1, 95%CI:1.8–2.5). Wheezing was 1.8-fold (aOR 95%CI:1.4–2.2) more prevalent among pneumonia cases who were RV-positive vs. RV-negative. Of the RV-positive cases, 13% had a higher probability (>75%) that RV was the cause of their pneumonia based on the PERCH integrated etiology analysis; 99% of these cases occurred in children over 12 months in Bangladesh. RV was commonly identified in both cases and controls and was significantly associated with severe pneumonia status among children over 12 months of age, particularly those in Bangladesh. RV-positive pneumonia was associated with wheezing.

Objectives: Circulating antibodies are important markers of previous infection and immunity. Questions remain with respect to the durability and functionality of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. This study explored antibody responses in recovered COVID-19 patients in a setting where the probability of re-exposure is effectively nil, owing to New Zealand’s successful elimination strategy. Methods: A triplex bead-based assay that detects antibody isotype (IgG, IgM and IgA) and subclass (IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, IgG4) responses against Nucleocapsid (N) protein, Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and Spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 was developed. After establishing baseline levels with pre-pandemic control sera (n=113), samples from PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients with mild-moderate disease (n=189) collected up to eight months post-infection were examined. The relationship between antigen-specific antibodies and neutralising antibodies (NAbs) was explored with a surrogate neutralisation assay that quantifies inhibition of the RBD/hACE-2 interaction. Results: While most individuals had broad isotype and subclass responses to each antigen shortly after infection, only RBD and S protein IgG, as well as NAbs, were stable over the study period, with 99%, 96% and 90% of samples, respectively, having responses over baseline 4-8 months post-infection. Anti-RBD antibodies were strongly correlated with NAbs at all time points (Pearson’s r ≥ 0.87) and feasibility of using finger prick sampling to accurately measure anti-RBD IgG was demonstrated. Conclusion: Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 persist for up to eight months following mild to moderate infection. This robust response can be attributed to the initial exposure without immune boosting given the lack of community transmission in our setting.

Objectives: To determine if lopinavir/ritonavir +/- hydroxychloroquine will reduce the proportion of participants who survive without requiring ventilatory support, 15 days after enrolment, in adult participants with non-critically ill SARS-CoV-2 infection. Trial design: ASCOT is an investigator-initiated, multi-centre, open-label, randomised controlled trial. Participants will have been hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19, and will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to receive lopinavir /ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, both or neither drug in addition to standard of care management. Participants: Participants will be recruited from >80 hospitals across Australia and New Zealand, representing metropolitan and regional centres in both public and private sectors. Admitted patients will be eligible if aged ≥ 18 years, have confirmed SARS-CoV-2 by nucleic acid testing in the past 12 days and are expected to remain an inpatient for at least 48 hours from the time of randomisation. Potentially eligible participants will be excluded if admitted to intensive care or requiring high level respiratory support, are currently receiving study drugs or their use is contraindicated due to allergy, drug interaction or comorbidities (including baseline QTc prolongation of 470ms for women or 480ms for men), or death is anticipated imminently. Intervention and comparator: Participants will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to: Group 1: standard of care; Group 2: lopinavir (400mg) / ritonavir (100mg) twice daily for 10 days in tablet form; Group 3: hydroxychloroquine (800mg) 4x200mg administered 12 hours apart on Day 1, followed by 400mg twice a day for 6 days; Group 4: lopinavir /ritonavir plus hydroxychloroquine. Main outcomes: Proportion of participants alive and not having required intensive respiratory support (invasive or non-invasive ventilation) at 15 days after enrolment. A range of clinical and virological secondary outcomes will also be evaluated. Randomisation: The randomisation schedule will be generated by an independent statistician. Randomisation will be stratified by site and will be in permuted blocks of variable block size. The randomised sequence allocation will only be accessible to the data management group, and site investigators will have individual participant allocation provided through a web-based trial enrolment platform. Blinding (masking): This is an open-label study, with researchers assessing the laboratory outcomes blinded to treatment allocation. No unblinding procedures relating to potential adverse effects are therefore required. Numbers to be randomised (sample size): We assumed that 5% of participants receiving standard of care would meet the primary outcome, aimed to evaluate whether interventions could lead to a relative risk of 0.5, assuming no interaction between intervention arms. This corresponds to a required sample size of 610 per arm, with a 5% two-sided significance level (alpha) and 80% power. The total sample size therefore is planned to be 2440. Trial Status: ASCOT protocol version 3, May 5, 2020. Recruitment opened April 4, 2020 and is ongoing, with planned completion of enrolment July 31, 2021. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620000445976). Prospectively registered April 6, 2020. Full protocol: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

Viral upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) predisposes to bacterial pneumonia possibly by facilitating growth of bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae colonising the nasopharynx. We investigated whether viral URTI is temporally associated with an increase in nasopharyngeal pneumococcal concentration. Episodes of symptomatic RSV or rhinovirus URTI among children lytA and alu PCR were performed on nasopharyngeal samples collected twice-weekly, to measure the pneumococcal concentration adjusted for the concentration of human DNA present. Pneumococcal concentration increased with a fold-change of 3.80 (95%CI 1.95–7.40), with acquisition of RSV or rhinovirus, during 51 URTI episodes among 42 children. In repeated swabs from the baseline period, in the two weeks before URTI developed, within-episode variation was broad; within +/−112-fold range of the geometric mean. We observed only a small increase in nasopharyngeal pneumococcal concentration during RSV or rhinovirus URTI, relative to natural variation. Other factors, such as host response to viral infection, may be more important than nasopharyngeal pneumococcal concentration in determining risk of invasive disease.

Background: 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age, was introduced in Kenya in January 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children <5 years. Coverage with ≥2 PCV10 doses in children 2-11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with ≥1 dose in children 12-59 months was 66% and 87%, respectively. Methods: Clinical and microbiological surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital was linked to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999-2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percent reduction in IPD as 1-IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were conducted from 2009-2016. Findings: Surveillance identified 667 IPD cases in 3,211,403 person-years of observation. IPD incidence in children <5 years fell sharply in 2011 following PCV10 introduction, and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 vs 3·2/100,000 [92% reduction; 95%CI: 78, 97]; overall IPD: 81·6 vs 15·3/100,000 [68% reduction; 95%CI: 40, 83]; 1999-2010 vs 2012-2016). PCV10-type IPD also declined significantly in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months, 5-14 years, ≥15 years), with estimated reductions of 100%, 74%, and 81%, respectively. There was no significant change in the incidence of non-PCV10 type IPD. In children aged <5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined by 74% and non-PCV10-type carriage increased by 71%. Interpretation: Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. These findings suggest that routine infant PCV10 immunization programmes with catch-up campaigns will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa.

We investigated the performance of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on blood in the diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia among children from 7 low- and middle-income countries. We tested blood by PCR for the pneumococcal autolysin gene in children aged 1–59 months in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study. Children had World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia or were age-frequency–matched community controls. Additionally, we tested blood from general pediatric admissions in Kilifi, Kenya, a PERCH site. The proportion PCR-positive was compared among cases with microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP), cases without a confirmed bacterial infection (nonconfirmed), cases confirmed for nonpneumococcal bacteria, and controls. In PERCH, 7.3% (n = 291/3995) of cases and 5.5% (n = 273/4987) of controls were blood pneumococcal PCR-positive (P < .001), compared with 64.3% (n = 36/56) of MCPP cases and 6.3% (n = 243/3832) of nonconfirmed cases (P < .001). Blood pneumococcal PCR positivity was higher in children from the 5 African countries (5.5%–11.5% among cases and 5.3%–10.2% among controls) than from the 2 Asian countries (1.3% and 1.0% among cases and 0.8% and 0.8% among controls). Among Kilifi general pediatric admissions, 3.9% (n = 274/6968) were PCR-positive, including 61.7% (n = 37/60) of those with positive blood cultures for pneumococcus. The utility of pneumococcal PCR on blood for diagnosing childhood pneumococcal pneumonia in the 7 low- and middle-income countries studied is limited by poor specificity and by poor sensitivity among MCPP cases.