Mark. E. Borsuk

Forest insects and pathogens have significant impacts on U.S. forests, annually affecting an area nearly three times that of wildfires and timber harvesting combined. However, coupled with these direct effects of forest insects and pathogens are the indirect impacts through influencing forest management practices, such as harvesting. In an earlier study, we surveyed private woodland owners in the northeastern U.S. and 84% of respondents indicated they intended to harvest in at least one of the presented insect invasion scenarios. This harvest response to insects represents a potentially significant shift in the timing, extent, and species selection of harvesting. Here we used the results from the landowner survey, regional forest inventory data, and characteristics of the emerald ash borer (Species: Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888) invasion to examine the potential for a rapidly spreading invasive insect to alter harvest regimes and affect regional forest conditions. Our analysis suggests that 25% of the woodland parcels in the Connecticut River Watershed in New England may intend to harvest in response to emerald ash borer. If the emerald ash borer continues to spread at its current rate within the region, and therefore the associated management response occurs in the next decade, this could result in an increase in harvest frequencies, from 2.6% year⁻¹ (historically) to 3.7% year⁻¹ through to approximately 2030. If harvest intensities remain at levels found in remeasured Forest Inventory and Analysis plots, this insect-initiated harvesting would result in the removal of 12%–13% of the total aboveground biomass. Eighty-one percent of the removed biomass would be from species other than ash, creating a forest disturbance that is over twice the magnitude than that created by emerald ash borer alone, with the most valuable co-occurring species most vulnerable to biomass loss.

Even though decisions taken today about managing ecosystem services are likely to have an effect on future generations’ well-being, decision making is based largely on current generations’ values, including altruistic concern for posterity. Deliberative forms of citizen engagement can provide a methodological framework for incorporating sustainability considerations in the valuation task and for understanding the reasoning behind peoples’ choices. This paper uses a deliberative form of citizen engagement to better understand the temporal dimensions of social values by incorporating into the valuation task two plausible future scenarios and assigning to the participants the role of trustees for future generations. In particular, we employed the deliberative multicriteria evaluation (DMCE) method with eleven groups in which a total of 67 participants assessed the relative importance of ten ecosystem services in the Upper Merrimack River watershed in New Hampshire. Our results suggest that a deliberative form of citizen engagement provides the appropriate space for incorporating intergenerational concerns into decision making. Participants set environmental targets by prioritizing the satisfaction of basic human needs, securing human and environmental health, and avoiding the loss of ecosystem services that cannot be substituted and may lead to irreversible future losses. This finding suggests that when preferences are socially constructed, then ethical values underpin valuations, making it possible to integrate ecosystem service tradeoffs into environmental decisions in a manner that respects the environmental rights of future generations.

Arsenic is a naturally occurring toxic metalloid that has many human health implications. Its strong prevalence in the bedrock and thus much of the well water in New England puts many private well owners at risk. It is also found in food products, particularly those that contain rice. Despite the documented health risks, arsenic is not high on the list of concerns for residents of the region. This study will describe two types of environmental communication efforts that have been undertaken by the Dartmouth Toxic Metals Superfund Research Program (DTMSRP)—the development and evaluation of a comprehensive website, Arsenic and You, and a mental models research approach to better understand the disconnect between expert and community perceptions of arsenic risk. We find that there are knowledge gaps between the two, particularly regarding the origin of arsenic in drinking water and food, the necessity of testing well water, and the process for treating water that is above recommended limits. Moreover, the mental models approach provides a structured framework for better understanding these gaps. A website can address some of these disconnects, and it is important to have a “one-stop shop” for vetted information on the risks and steps to reduce exposure.

Forest insects and pathogens (FIPs) have significant impacts on U.S. forests, each year affecting an area nearly three times the area of wildfires and timber harvesting combined. We surveyed family forest owners (FFOs) in the northeastern U.S. and 84% of respondents indicated they would harvest in at least one of the presented FIP infestation scenarios. This harvest response represents a potentially significant shift in the timing, extent, and species selection of harvesting in the Northeast. Here we used the landowner survey, regional forest inventory data, and characteristics of the emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis ) invasion to examine the potential for a rapidly spreading FIP to alter harvest regimes and affect regional forest conditions. Twenty-five percent of the FFO parcels in the Connecticut River Watershed in New England are likely to be harvested in response to EAB within 10 years. This prediction represents an increase in harvest frequencies, from 2.9%/yr (historically) to 3.7%/yr, on FFO woodlands. At typical harvest intensities, this would result in 13% of the total aboveground biomass removed through these harvests, with 81% of that biomass from species other than ash, creating a forest disturbance that is over twice the magnitude of the disturbance from EAB alone.

Forest insects and pathogens (FIPs) play an important role in the complex interactions between woodland owners and the ecosystems they manage. Understanding the specifics of woodland owner decision-making with regard to trees impacted by FIPs can facilitate projections of future forest conditions and insect spread. Our first objective is to: (i) characterize agent functional types (AFTs) of New England family forest owners (FFOs) using a set of contingent behavior questions contained in a mail survey of FFOs concerning response to FIPs. We establish AFTs as a form of dimension reduction, effectively assigning individual FFOs to particular decision-making classes, each with distinct probabilities of behavior with respect to the harvest of impacted trees. Our second objective is to: (ii) model AFT membership to predict the distribution of AFTs across the landscape. Predictors are chosen from a set of survey, geographic, and demographic features. Accomplishing (i) establishes three functional classes of landowners: ‘cutters’ (46% of respondents; highly likely to cut timber impacted by FIPs), ‘responsive’ cutters (42% of respondents; sensitive to pest severity), and ‘non-cutters’ (12% of respondents; highly unlikely to cut). Fulfilling (ii) provides a high-resolution probability surface of AFTs across the landscape, delivering key input for simulation models of forest and land cover change in New England. Predictors in our best model of AFT membership include parcel size (hectares of forest), region, and town-level forested fraction.

Invasive forest insect and pathogens (FIP) are having significant, direct, adverse impacts. Interactions between FIPs and forest owners have the potential to create ecosystem impacts that compound direct impacts. We assessed family forest owners’ responses to numerous contingent behavior, FIP-outbreak scenarios in the northeastern U.S. based on FIP outbreak attributes. Sixty-two percent of scenario responses ( n =2,752) reflected a harvest intent as a result of FIPs; 84% of respondents ( n= 688) would consider harvesting in at least one of the four hypothetical scenarios presented to them. Harvest intention increased with greater FIP-related tree mortality and decreased with delayed total tree mortality. Owners with larger holdings, who had previously harvested forest products, and live on their forestland had greater intentions to harvest in response to FIPs. Results suggest that FIPs could transform the regional harvest regime with socio-ecological impacts that are distinct from those caused by FIPs or harvesting alone.

Mavrommati, G., M. Borsuk, and R. B. Howarth. 2016. A novel deliberative multicriteria evaluation approach to ecosystem service valuation. Ecology and Society 22(2):39. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09105-220239

Murphy, M., G. Mavrommati, V. R. Mallampalli, R. B. Howarth, and M. E. Borsuk. 2017. Comparing group deliberation to other forms of preference aggregation in valuing ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 22(4):17. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09519-220417

Samal, N. R., W. Wollheim, S. Zuidema, R. Stewart, Z. Zhou, M. M. Mineau, M. Borsuk, K. H. Gardner, S. Glidden, T. Huang, D. Lutz, G. Mavrommati, A. M. Thorn, C. P. Wake, and M. Huber. 2017. A coupled terrestrial and aquatic biogeophysical model of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, to inform ecosystem services evaluation and management under climate and land-cover change. Ecology and Society 22(4):18. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09662-220418