Annette Baudisch

Volume 50 - Article 24 | Pages 643–666

Is senescence inevitable and universal for all living organisms, as evolutionary theories predict? Although evidence generally supports this hypothesis, it has been proposed that certain species, such as turtles and tortoises, may exhibit slow or even negligible senescence—i.e., avoiding the increasing risk of death from gradual deterioration with age. In an extensive comparative study of turtles and tortoises living in zoos and aquariums, we show that ~75% of 52 species exhibit slow or negligible senescence. For ~80% of species, aging rates are lower than those in modern humans. We find that body weight positively relates to adult life expectancy in both sexes, and sexual size dimorphism explains sex differences in longevity. Unlike humans and other species, we show that turtles and tortoises may reduce senescence in response to improvements in environmental conditions.

Previous studies have demonstrated a correlation between longevity and brain size in a variety of taxa. Little research has been devoted to understanding this link in parrots; yet parrots are well-known for both their exceptionally long lives and cognitive complexity. We employed a large-scale comparative analysis that investigated the influence of brain size and life-history variables on longevity in parrots. Specifically, we addressed two hypotheses for evolutionary drivers of longevity: the cognitive buffer hypothesis , which proposes that increased cognitive abilities enable longer lifespans, and the expensive brain hypothesis , which holds that increases in lifespan are caused by prolonged developmental time of, and increased parental investment in, large-brained offspring . We estimated life expectancy from detailed zoo records for 133 818 individuals across 244 parrot species. Using a principled Bayesian approach that addresses data uncertainty and imputation of missing values, we found a consistent correlation between relative brain size and life expectancy in parrots. This correlation was best explained by a direct effect of relative brain size. Notably, we found no effects of developmental time, clutch size or age at first reproduction. Our results suggest that selection for enhanced cognitive abilities in parrots has in turn promoted longer lifespans.

Previous studies have demonstrated a correlation between longevity and brain size in a variety of taxa. Little research has been devoted to understanding this link in parrots; yet parrots are well-known for both their exceptionally long lives and cognitive complexity. We employed a large-scale comparative analysis that investigated the influence of brain size and life history variables on longevity in parrots. Specifically, we addressed two hypotheses for evolutionary drivers of longevity: the Cognitive Buffer Hypothesis , which proposes that increased cognitive abilities enable longer life spans, and the Expensive Brain Hypothesis , which holds that increases in life span are caused by prolonged developmental time of, and increased parental investment in, large brained offspring. We estimated life expectancy from detailed zoo records for 133,818 individuals across 244 parrot species. Using a principled Bayesian approach that addresses data uncertainty and imputation of missing values, we found a consistent correlation between relative brain size and life expectancy in parrots. This correlation was best explained by a direct effect of relative brain size. Notably, we found no effects of developmental time, clutch size, or age at first reproduction. Our results suggest that selection for enhanced cognitive abilities in parrots have in turn promoted longer lifespans.

Ageing is ubiquitous to all organisms, but ageing does not always mean senescence. Counter to most evolutionary theories of ageing, the patterns of mortality and reproduction may remain unchanged or improve with age, as well as deteriorate. Describing this diversity presents a challenge to eco‐evolutionary demography. The pace–shape framework of mortality tackled this challenge to qualify and quantify orthogonal components of ageing patterns in mortality. Here, we extend this framework to fertility. Analogous to the logic of the mortality framework, we define a perspective, a framework and novel methods for the pace and shape of fertility. These distinguish between orthogonal components of time‐scale (pace) and distribution (shape) of reproduction over adult life span. Our pace and shape framework mirrors that of mortality, through a shift of perspective from the mother giving birth, to the offspring being born. Our new measures overcome many problems associated with measuring natural fertility trajectories, have both a clear biological and mathematical interpretation, can be intuitively visualized and satisfy and extend important conditions of the pace–shape paradigm. A comprehensive framework of fertility pace–shape facilitates ecological and evolutionary research addressing interactions and trade‐offs between components of birth and death patterns, across the whole tree of life. The burgeoning emergence of large comparative demographic data sources across wide environmental, geographical, temporal and phylogenetic ranges, combined with pace–shape measures, opens the door to comparative analyses of ageing which were never possible before.

Biodiversity loss is a major challenge. Over the past century, the average rate of vertebrate extinction has been about 100-fold higher than the estimated background rate and population declines continue to increase globally. Birth and death rates determine the pace of population increase or decline, thus driving the expansion or extinction of a species. Design of species conservation policies hence depends on demographic data (e.g., for extinction risk assessments or estimation of harvesting quotas). However, an overview of the accessible data, even for better known taxa, is lacking. Here, we present the Demographic Species Knowledge Index, which classifies the available information for 32,144 (97%) of extant described mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. We show that only 1.3% of the tetrapod species have comprehensive information on birth and death rates. We found no demographic measures, not even crude ones such as maximum life span or typical litter/clutch size, for 65% of threatened tetrapods. More field studies are needed; however, some progress can be made by digitalizing existing knowledge, by imputing data from related species with similar life histories, and by using information from captive populations. We show that data from zoos and aquariums in the Species360 network can significantly improve knowledge for an almost eightfold gain. Assessing the landscape of limited demographic knowledge is essential to prioritize ways to fill data gaps. Such information is urgently needed to implement management strategies to conserve at-risk taxa and to discover new unifying concepts and evolutionary relationships across thousands of tetrapod species.

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

Longevity has long been recognised as a key facilitator of reciprocal altruism because repeated cooperation of partners hinges on mutual survival. Although demographic tools can be used to quantify mutual survival and expected overlapping lifespans, studies on the evolutionary theory of cooperation take only limited advantage of demography. Overlap of lifespans depends on variation in survival across ages and can be high or low independently of high or low life expectancies. Here we develop formal demographic measures to study the complex relationships between shared life expectancy of two birth cohort peers, the proportion of their lives that they can expect to overlap, and longevity. We simulate age-specific mortality schedules using a Siler model to reveal how infant and senescent mortality, along with age-independent mortality, affect the relationship between the proportion of life shared and life expectancy. We find that while the proportion of life shared can vary vastly for similar life expectancies, almost all changes to mortality schedules that result in higher life expectancies also result in higher proportions of life shared. A distinct exception occurs if life expectancy increases due to lowering the rate of senescence. In this case the proportion of life shared decreases. Our work shows that almost all selective pressures that result in higher life expectancies also result in a larger proportion of life shared. Therefore, selective forces that extend life also improve the chances that a cooperative system would be stable in terms of reciprocal interactions. Since reciprocal interactions may also reduce mortality and result in a feedback loop with the evolution of longevity, our measures and findings can be used for future cross-species comparisons that aim to disentangle predecessor and successor in the evolution of longevity and cooperation.

Rectangularization of the survival curve—a key analytical framework in mortality research—relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the ‘maximum inner rectangle approach’ (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan. Inner rectangularization captures progress in lifespan equality relative to progress in mean lifespan. Empirical applications show that both processes have generally increased since 1850. However, inner rectangularization has displayed country-specific patterns since the onset of sustained old-age mortality declines. Results from separating premature and old-age mortality, using the MIRA, suggest there has been a switch from reducing premature deaths to extending the premature age range; a shift potentially signalling a looming limit to the share of premature deaths.

Demographic heterogeneity refers to the observation that – within the same population – trajectories of survival and reproduction differ substantially between individuals. These differences have been found in both natural and captive populations. Models in