Frank Lunkeit

This observational study investigates the impact of North Atlantic synoptic-scale wave breaking on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its connection with the stratosphere in winter, as derived from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Anticyclonic (AB) and cyclonic wave breaking (CB) composites are compiled of the temporal and spatial components of the large-scale circulation using a method for the detection of AB and CB events from daily maps of potential vorticity on an isentropic surface. From this analysis a close link between wave breaking, the NAO, and the stratosphere is found: 1) a positive feedback between the occurrence of AB (CB) events and the positive (negative) phase of the NAO is suggested, whereas wave breaking in general without any reference to AB- or CB-like behavior does not affect the NAO, though it preferably emerges from its positive phase. 2) AB strengthens the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and acts to separate it from the subtropical jet, while CB weakens the eddy-driven jet and tends to merge both jets. 3) AB (CB) events are associated with a stronger (weaker) lower-stratospheric polar vortex, characterized by the 50-hPa northern annular mode. During persistent weak vortex episodes, significantly more frequent CB than AB events are observed concurrently with a significant negative NAO response up to 55 days after the onset of the stratospheric perturbation. Finally, tropospheric wave breaking is related to nonannular stratospheric variability, suggesting an additional sensitivity of wave breaking and, thus, the NAO to specific distortions of the stratospheric polar vortex, rather than solely its strength.

A tangent linear adjoint for a low-resolution dynamical model of the atmosphere is used to derive the optimal forcing perturbations for all state variables such that after a specified lead time the model response has a given projection, in terms of an energy norm, on the pattern associated with the 51-yr trend in the Northern Hemisphere winter tropospheric circulation, 1948/49–1998/99. A feature of the derived forcing sensitivity is a Rossby wave–like feature that emanates from the western tropical Pacific and is associated with the deepening of the Aleutian low, whereas an annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity in the uppermost model level is shown to be associated with the pattern of the trend over the Euro-Atlantic/Asian sectors, including the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The authors argue that the Rossby wave–type feature is consistent with studies that have argued a role for the upward trend in tropical sea surface temperature during the 51-yr period. On the other hand, the authors interpret the annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity as being consistent with studies that have argued that the trend over the Euro-Atlantic sector was associated with influences from the stratosphere. In particular, a nonlinear model driven by the optimal forcing perturbation applied only to the top model level is successful at reproducing the trend pattern with the correct amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector, but implies a trend over the North Pacific toward a weaker Aleutian low, contrary to what was observed but similar to the spatial pattern associated with the northern annular mode. These results show that the adjoint approach can shed light on previous apparently different interpretations of the trend. The study also presents a successful application of a tangent linear adjoint model to a climate problem.

The impact of an unsteady wind forcing on oceanic low-frequency variability is conceptually studied using a reduced-gravity shallow-water model. A time-averaged wind forcing and a simple ocean–atmosphere coupling is completed by a stochastic component (spatially coherent white noise) representing the effect of atmospheric transient eddies. To account for the observed concentration of eddy activity along the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks the variance of the stochastic forcing is chosen to be spatially inhomogeneous. Low-frequency variability of the basin-averaged energetics shows a dominant spectral peak with an amplitude depending on the inhomogeneity of the stochastic forcing and the time-averaged wind stress. The period of the variability is unexpected considering baroclinic Rossby waves forced by the ocean–atmosphere coupling only. This variability can be explained by “spatial resonance” of the forced baroclinic Rossby wave and the Reynolds momentum flux induced by the spatially inhomogeneous white noise.

A large number of uncoupled integrations with an idealized general circulation model are carried out to investigate the linearity of the atmospheric quasi-equilibrium response to North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to interdecadal variability. A statistical approach is used to judge the linearity of the temporally averaged global atmospheric response with respect to the amplitudes of the SST anomaly patterns. The results indicate that the assumption of a linear correlation of the corresponding magnitudes is, in general, not valid. Since the model, though idealized, provides all the characteristics of a full general circulation model (GCM), some important conclusions can be drawn for the design and interpretation of GCM sensitivity experiments.