Mayis Gulaliyev

Early-stage post-conflict regions must rebuild essential infrastructure while avoiding development pathways that create long-term environmental and institutional costs. This study examines how green reconstruction, policy sequencing, and sustainable regional competitiveness may co-evolve in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur during 2025–2040. A scenario-based System Dynamics (SD) model developed in Vensim compares Baseline Reconstruction, Eco-Tourism Promotion, Green Investment, an Integrated Policy Mix, and Accelerated Reconstruction. The normalized simulations indicate that stand-alone interventions generate partial gains and trade-offs, whereas the full Integrated Policy Mix produces the most balanced outcome under its stated, more favourable policy settings. Eco-tourism promotion increases attractiveness and demand but may intensify carrying-capacity stress when services and environmental management lag; accelerated reconstruction can create institutional overload when implementation demands exceed absorptive capacity. A matched policy-intensity comparison does not show uniform mixed-package dominance over both stand-alone alternatives, so the full Integrated advantage cannot be interpreted as a pure coordination effect. An exploratory global uncertainty analysis preserves the original ranking under the specified perturbation design. The results are assumption-dependent policy experiments rather than empirically estimated forecasts and support conditional, phased, and capacity-sensitive reconstruction strategies.

Background: This study revisits whether oil revenue windfalls translate into higher socio-economic welfare in oil-exporting economies and explains why oil price booms often fail to generate sustained gains in real GDP per capita. Methods: Using annual data for ten oil-exporting countries over 1990–2024, we estimate country-specific ARDL/ECM models under a unified specification. The dependent variable is log real GDP per capita, explained by log real oil prices, the log share of government expenditure in GDP, population growth, and world GDP growth, with political and devaluation dummies where relevant. Results: Cointegration and significant error correction terms hold for most exporters, but adjustment speeds differ sharply. Long-run oil price elasticities are heterogeneous: strongly positive in Qatar, weak or insignificant in several cases (including Azerbaijan), and negative in a post-rentier pattern (UAE/Oman). Fiscal and demographic channels emerge as systematic constraints: government expenditure shares are often negatively associated with long-run welfare, and population growth typically reduces GDP per capita. World GDP growth is generally positive but uneven in significance. Conclusions: Resource use is conditional: welfare outcomes depend on fiscal regimes, demographic pressures, and structural transformation rather than windfall size alone.

This article evaluates the relationship between energy intensity (EI), investment in fixed capital (INVEST), employment (EMP), producer price index (PPI), and real output in Azerbaijan’s manufacturing industry over the period 2007–2024 within the ARDL-ECM framework. Since the ADF tests indicate that the variables have mixed orders of integration, I(0) and I(1), the Bounds test is applied to check for the presence of a long-run relationship, which is confirmed. In the ECM model, the negative and statistically significant error-correction coefficient shows that deviations from equilibrium are corrected rapidly. The results reveal that an increase in EI leads to a decline in real output, while efficiency improvements reduce EI and raise production volume. Growth in EMP positively affects output. INVEST in the manufacturing sector exerts a negative short-run effect due to “installation delays,” but a positive effect with a one-year lag. PPI shocks, especially with lags, have a negative impact. Inference is conducted using HAC/Newey-West robust standard errors. The LM, BPG, RESET, Jarque-Bera, and CUSUM/CUSUMSQ diagnostics confirm that the model’s functional form and stability are satisfactory.

This research investigates the long-term relationship between agricultural inputs, climate change, and agricultural output in Azerbaijan, with a particular focus on the effects of irrigation and agricultural supplies (IAS), investment in fixed capital, and climate conditions on agricultural output. Using annual data from 2002 to 2021, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine cointegration among the variables. The results confirm a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the Crop Production Index (CPI) and its key determinants, including irrigation and agricultural supplies, investment in agricultural fixed capital (INAG), and average annual rainfall (AAR). The ARDL F-statistic exceeds the upper critical bounds at both the 5% and 1% significance levels, providing strong evidence of cointegration. Robustness checks based on long-run coefficient estimates show that a 1% increase in IAS leads to a 1.319% increase in CPI, while a 1% increase in INAG results in a 0.038% rise in CPI. Conversely, AAR has a statistically significant negative impact, with a 1% increase in rainfall corresponding to a 0.115% decline in crop production, likely reflecting climatic irregularities. These findings underscore the critical importance of sustained capital investment and efficient input supply in enhancing crop productivity, while highlighting the risks posed by environmental variability for sustainable agricultural development in Azerbaijan.

By employing OLS, Robust OLS, and ARDL models, the research evaluates the effects of minimum wages (both in PPP and national currency), government expenditures, and unemployment on inflation. The results demonstrate that government expenditures significantly and positively influence inflation in both short- and long-term perspectives. Minimum wages in the national currency are shown to increase inflation in the short run but exhibit a reducing effect with a time lag. Conversely, minimum wages measured in PPP have a deflationary effect, reflecting their stabilizing influence on purchasing power and consumer prices. Unemployment is found to reduce inflation in the short term, aligning with the Phillips Curve theory, while past unemployment levels display a delayed positive effect on inflation, underscoring the complex nature of the relationship. The study highlights the crucial role of fiscal policy in managing inflation in Azerbaijan, particularly in a resource-dependent economy. Furthermore, the impact of Azerbaijan's 2015 currency devaluation was analyzed using a dummy variable approach, confirming no significant structural break in the inflation determinants post-devaluation. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in implementing effective inflation control strategies through employment policies, wage regulation, and government spending adjustments.

Type of the article: Research Article AbstractCrime remains a significant socio-economic issue, shaped by social instability and economic inequality, and poses critical challenges for public administration and policymaking. In Azerbaijan, rising divorce rates and persistent income disparities have become prominent social concerns, with the former reflecting shifts in family structure and the latter captured by the Gini index as a measure of income inequality. This study explores the causal relationships between crime, income inequality, and divorce rates in Azerbaijan from 2000 to 2021, utilizing econometric methodologies. From a public administration perspective, the study provides empirical insights to support more effective and targeted interventions in crime prevention, social protection, and family policy. Methodologically, the Johansen cointegration test is applied to identify long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables, while the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test is employed to examine the directional causality. The cointegration analysis reveals stable long-term associations between crime, income inequality, and divorce, with trace statistics (32.172, 16.067, and 4.052) exceeding their respective critical values at the 5% significance level. Additionally, the Toda-Yamamoto test shows that income inequality significantly influences crime (χ² = 5.145, p = 0.023), with divorce exhibiting a stronger predictive relationship with crime (χ² = 7.071, p = 0.007). These findings underscore the necessity for integrated crime prevention strategies, emphasizing the role of public administration in designing and implementing coherent socio-economic policies.

In the paper, the possibilities of transition to the green economy in the areas freed from occupation and large construction works for resettlement, the development of green energy in these areas, and the modeling of the investments required for this purpose for the next 15-25 years have been performed. The System Dynamics simulation method was applied for modeling. The presented model allows calculating the amount of savings in gas resources, the number of "green jobs" created and the economic profit as a result of using the potential of solar energy in areas free from occupation. The paper assesses the resource, technical, and economic potential of solar energy to fully meet the electricity demand through "green energy" in the liberated and rapidly developing East Zangezur and Karabakh economic regions. These projects will be carried out over 15 to 25 years, depending on investment availability and policy changes. According to the results, these regions have abundant solar radiation, and an investment of 2.5 billion manats, required to meet the region's electricity needs through solar energy, could yield significant results in a short period of time.

The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30–70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged Employment, Human Development Index, and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The Error Correction Model coefficient (−0.724701) implies that the system adjusts back to equilibrium at a rate of 72.47% per period, highlighting a strong corrective mechanism. Additionally, in the short run, GDP, HDI, wage employment, and out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly influence mortality rates. The model’s statistical diagnostics confirm its robustness, and the results align with economic theory, reinforcing their validity and policy relevance. According to the conclusion of this research, we suggest the enhancement of the HDI and Employment, control out-of-pocket expenditures, and increase Government Healthcare Spending to significantly reduce mortality rates. This study emphasizes that enhancing social determinants like the HDI, Waged Employment, and accessible healthcare services is crucial for reducing mortality rates of NCDs. While Azerbaijan’s economic growth has improved living standards, further efforts are necessary to improve healthcare investments and reduce inequalities in health outcomes.

The impact of research and development (R&D) expenditure is crucial for understanding contemporary economic development strategies. This study investigates the relationship between R&D spending as a percentage of GDP and economic growth, focusing on the South Caucasus countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia) and Israel, which is notable for its substantial R&D expenditure (5.71% of GDP in 2020). The objective is to evaluate the impact of R&D expenditure on economic development through the application of rigorous empirical methods. By employing a quantitative approach, this study aims to offer a detailed analysis of the impact of R&D investment on economic growth across various countries. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyzes the association between R&D expenditure and GDP levels. Granger causality tests are utilized to investigate the causal relationships. The results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between R&D expenditure and GDP across all studied countries. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that GDP growth stimulates increased R&D investments in Azerbaijan and Armenia, as evidenced by Granger causality tests. To sum up, this paper underscores the critical role of R&D spending in driving economic development and highlights the necessity for policy initiatives focused on strengthening R&D frameworks.