Kayode O. Atoba

Risk reduction behaviors are often voluntary and influenced by how at-risk an individual personally feels, known as risk perception. This paper examines how risk perception changed from before and six months after Hurricane Irma, a Category 3 storm that narrowly missed Sarasota County, FL. Both surveys asked about residents’ hurricane risk perceptions, evacuation behaviors, mitigation plans, and attitudes about self-efficacy. For each question found in both surveys, the research used t-tests (ɑ = 0.05) to assess whether significant changes in risk perceptions occurred between responses. The results suggest that Hurricane Irma had a notable impact on risk perception. The changes were most evident in reported levels of self-efficacy as residents were less likely to feel able to sufficiently prepare for or recover from hurricane impacts after Hurricane Irma. Respondents were also more likely to believe individuals are responsible for preparing for hurricane impacts. The findings have implications for public risk communicators, who may find it effective and sustainable to appeal to residents’ lowered self-efficacy or sense of responsibility for the dangers of hurricanes while implementing policies and communication strategies.

Although it is largely accepted that disasters offer windows of opportunity for adoption of risk-reduction measures, the dimensions of support for hazard mitigation following a disaster are not well understood. Drawing on a survey of Upper Texas Coast residents 9 months after Hurricane Harvey (2017), this study explores public support for various types of hazard mitigation within the context of a natural hazard focusing event. Regression models estimate the association of risk perceptions, objective risk, political beliefs, and disaster experience with individual support for hazard mitigation of seven types including structural and nonstructural, household, and community levels. The findings suggest that individuals with higher risk perceptions, those who reside in areas with high flood risk, those who experienced disaster damages to their property, and those who value investment of tax dollars in disaster management are more likely to support hazard mitigation than their counterparts. This support varies across hazard mitigation type, indicating there are some factors related to the benefit gained from the specific mitigation technique that are more relevant than others.

Coastal areas are often subject to the severe consequences of flooding from intense storms or hurricanes. Increases in coastal development have amplified both flooding intensity and negative impacts for coastal communities. Reductions in pervious land cover and replacement with impervious ones have reduced the amount of ecosystem services. This research examines the services provided by nature-based solutions by applying outputs from Co$ting Nature models into suitability models to quantify ecosystem services along the Texas Coast. Results show that only around 13% of the Houston-Galveston coastal area has relatively high NBS, and nearly ¼ of the area shows relatively low NBS. The majority of the areas lie in the middle, which, due to increases in development, are at particular risk for becoming areas offering low NBS in the future if not treated. Such vulnerability assessment informs future implementation strategies for NBS in coastal communities to protect people and property from flooding.

Summary: Rising flood damages have prompted local communities to implement buyout and property acquisition programmes to eliminate repetitive losses for at-risk properties. However, buyouts are often costly to implement and are reactionary solutions to flooding. This study quantifies the benefits of acquiring vacant private properties in flood-prone areas rather than acquiring such properties after they are built up. Using a geodesign framework that integrates concepts and analytical approaches derived from geographical, spatial and statistical-based disciplines, we analyse vacant properties with high development potential that intersect current and future floodplain areas in Houston (TX, USA). We use geospatial proximity analysis to select candidate properties, land-use prediction modelling to estimate future development and sea-level rise and benefit–cost analysis to assess the economic viability of buyouts. The results indicate that cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of vacant land acquisition by a factor of nearly two to one, and up to a factor of ten to one in selected areas. This study emphasizes the benefits of proactive property buyouts that focus on acquiring parcels before they are built up, while also avoiding the social and institutional problems associated with traditional buyout programmes.

Many studies have evaluated the impacts of urbanization on runoff and non-point source pollutants, few studies have combined hydrologic and water quality simulation models with spatial analyses to assess these impacts at the neighborhood scale, thereby exposing any environmental inequalities. This study applies the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model in Houston, TX, to estimate the current and future urban runoff and nonpoint pollutants for 88 Houston super-neighborhoods. We use hotspot analysis to explore the effects of land use changes on runoff and pollutant loads under different socioeconomic conditions. Comparing current land uses with the predicted 2045 Houston land uses shows that runoff and non-point source pollutants in all Houston super-neighborhoods would worsen by 55%, on average. Particularly, nitrogen, phosphorous, and nickel would have the greatest increase (76.88%, 60.29%, and 59.23%, respectively). Bacterial pollutants, including fecal coliform and fecal strep, are projected to increase by more than 60%. Results also show that disadvantaged communities tend to experience increased flood risk and are likely to face more public health problems from contaminant exposure, compared with advantaged communities. To reduce these risks, prevention and mitigation efforts should be diverted toward improving green infrastructure. Advocacy planning is needed to empower marginalized neighborhoods to combat inequitable effects related to land use change.