Honoré Dacosta

Analyzing trends of annual rainfall and assessing the impacts of these trends on the hydrological regime are crucial in the context of climate change and increasing water use. This research investigates the recent trend of hydroclimatic variables in the Senegal River basin based on 36 rain gauge stations and three hydrometric stations not influenced by hydraulic structures. The Man Kendall and Pettitt’s tests were applied for the annual rainfall time series from 1940 to 2013 to detect the shift and the general trend of the annual rainfall. In addition, trends of average annual flow rate (AAFR), maximum daily flow (MADF), and low flow rate (LFR) were evaluated before and after annual rainfall shift. The results show that the first shift is situated on average at 1969 whereas the second one is at 1994. While the first shift is very consistent between stations (between 1966 and 1972), there is a significant dispersion of the second change-point between 1984 and 2002. After the second shift (1994), an increase of annual rainfall is noticed compared to the previous period (1969–1994) which indicates a not significant, partial rainfall recovery at the basin level. The relative changes of hydrologic variables differ based on the variables and the sub-basin. Relative changes before and after first change-point are significantly negative for all variables. The highest relative changes are observed for the AAFR. Considering the periods before and second shifts, the relative changes are mainly significantly positive except for the LFR.

In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968–1990s ‘Great Drought’ period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which the runoff coefficient continued to increase despite the general re-greening of the Sahel. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on the drivers of these paradoxical behaviors, focusing on recent works in the West African Sahelo/Sudanian strip, and upscaling the hydrological processes through an analysis of recent data from two representative areas of this region. This paper helps better determine the respective roles played by Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC), the evolution of rainfall intensity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in these hydrological paradoxes. Both the literature review and recent data converge in indicating that the first Sahelian hydrological paradox was mostly driven by LULCC, while the second paradox has been caused by both LULCC and climate evolution, mainly the recent increase in rainfall intensity.

Cet article étudie la variabilité spatio-temporelle des pluies du bassin versant du fleuve Kayanga/Gêba, transfrontalier entre la République de Guinée, le Sénégal et la Guinée-Bissau. L'homogénéisation et le comblement des lacunes ont été assurés par la méthode du vecteur régional. L'application sur les pluies annuelles (1932-2014) des tests statistiques de PETTITT et de BUISHAND indique des ruptures de stationnarité en 1964 (un cas) ou 1967 (cinq cas). Les déficits après rupture sont compris entre 13,7 % et 19,6 % des pluies avant rupture. La méthode de segmentation montre, pour certains postes, une amélioration de la pluviosité à partir de 1992 ou de 2002. La répartition spatiale des pluies annuelles moyennes sur des périodes glissantes de 30 ans, fait ressortir à la fois leur diminution vers le nord et la migration des isohyètes vers le sud après la rupture. La période 1961-1990 est la plus sèche. Les indices pluviométriques de LAMB, étudiés à l'échelle décennale, confirment cette évolution et mettent en évidence une amélioration de la situation à partir de la décennie 1988-1997.