Ian M. Howard

The term ‘Miracle March’ is colloquially used in California to describe an anomalously wet spring that alleviates drought conditions caused by a winter precipitation deficit. This study centers on the influential water year 1991, which is the standard reference point for this phenomenon. The spring precipitation impact on water year totals and the geographic extent of the spring precipitation anomaly during the 1991 ‘Miracle March’ (MM91) is without equal in the observational record. This exceptional precipitation episode was initiated by a week-long sequence of extreme atmospheric rivers that started landfalling on February 27th. To this day, MM91 is routinely referenced as a basis for hope of drought alleviation in California water management. MM91 demonstrates the role that an exceptional spring precipitation season can play in determining the cessation of drought, but a historical analysis also shows just how unusual such conditions are.

Written accounts of hurricanes and their impacts in the Caribbean region date back to 1494 CE We report a new compilation of hurricanes in the longest settled regions of the central and eastern Caribbean region (CECR) that is the most complete yet produced and present basic statistics. We assess likely undercounts of hurricanes due to incomplete documentary records in the earliest part of the record by using the most complete reporting from Puerto Rico relative to the remainder of the CECR. We compare our results with other documentary and proxy data from the region and demonstrate using wavelet analysis significant activity related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at inter‐annual time scales and lower frequency activity from decadal to multi‐decadal scales. Our results offer evidence that, along with ENSO, fluctuations in sulfate aerosols are a possible contributor to the hurricane history. The frequency of hurricane landfalls and impacts in the CECR was lower in the 20^th century than any time since 1494 CE.

Subsets of annual and sub-annual tree-ring chronologies are used to reconstruct seasonal precipitation totals in northern California. The specific seasons selected for reconstruction are based on the strongest monthly precipitation signals recorded in the tree-ring data. Earlywood width of gray pine is best correlated with Oct-Dec precipitation at the onset of the wet season. Latewood width of ponderosa pine is correlated with Mar–Apr totals at the end of the wet season. These earlywood and latewood width chronologies are used to develop separate reconstructions of precipitation for the “autumn” (Oct–Dec) and “spring” (Mar–Apr) seasons. Total ring-width chronologies of blue oak are highly correlated with October–April precipitation totals and are used to reconstruct precipitation for the “wet season.” We then computed one additional skillful reconstruction by subtracting the reconstructed spring totals from the wet season precipitation estimates (i.e., “winter” [Oct–Feb]). We compare the winter and spring reconstructions because they are well calibrated and provide an interesting long-term perspective on the interaction of winter–spring precipitation amounts near March 1, when important reservoir management decisions are often made. Consecutive wet winter and very wet spring precipitation anomalies increased after 1950 in the instrumental and reconstructed time-series, often coinciding with the largest spring streamflow and flood events recorded on the American River at Folsom. Once the sub-annual tree-ring data can be improved, it may be possible to develop discrete reconstructions of early-, middle-, and late-season precipitation for the past 250 to 500 years, to help define natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of seasonal precipitation totals in California.

The variability of water year precipitation and selected blue oak tree-ring chronologies in California are both dominated by heavy precipitation delivered during just a few days each year. These heavy precipitation events can spell the difference between surplus or deficit water supply and elevated flood risk. Some blue oak chronologies are highly correlated with water year precipitation (r = 0.84) but are equally well correlated (r = 0.82) with heavy precipitation totals ≥25.4 mm (1 in., ≈95th percentile of daily totals, 1949–2004). The blue oak correlation with nonheavy daily totals is much weaker (r = 0.55). Consequently, some blue oak chronologies represent selective proxies for the temporal and spatial variability of heavy precipitation totals and are used to reconstruct the amount and number of days with heavy precipitation in northern California from 1582 to 2021. Instrumental and reconstructed heavy precipitation totals are strongly correlated with gridded atmospheric river–related precipitation over the western United States, especially in central California. Spectral analysis indicates that instrumental heavy precipitation totals may be dominated by high-frequency variability and the nonheavy totals by low-frequency variance. The reconstruction of heavy precipitation is coherent with instrumental heavy totals across the frequency domain and include concentrations of variance at ENSO and biennial frequencies. Return period analyses calculated using instrumental heavy precipitation totals are representative of the return periods in the blue oak reconstruction despite the large differences in series length. Decadal surges in the amount, frequency, and interannual volatility of heavy precipitation totals are reconstructed, likely reflecting episodes of elevated atmospheric river activity in the past. Significance Statement: Tree-ring chronologies of blue oak are highly correlated with precipitation delivered to northern California during just the heaviest days of precipitation each year. The reconstruction of heavy precipitation indicates decadal episodes with a high frequency of extreme precipitation. These episodes of frequent heavy precipitation likely arose because of elevated atmospheric river activity and are relevant to the analysis of water supply and flood hazard in California.

The forests of northern Mexico and the southwestern United States have been subjected to warmer temperatures, persistent drought, and more intense and widespread wildfire. Tree-ring data from four conifer species native to these borderlands forests are compared with regional and large-scale precipitation and temperature data. These species include Abies durangensis, Pinus arizonica, Pinus cembroides, and Pseudotsuga menziesii. Twelve detrended and standardized ring-width chronologies are derived for these four species, all are cross-correlated during their common interval of 1903–2000 (r = 0.567 to 0.738, p < 0.01), and all load positively on the first principal component of radial growth, which alone represents 56% of the variance in the correlation matrix. Correlation with monthly precipitation and temperature data for the study area indicates that all four species respond primarily to precipitation during the cool season of autumn and winter, October–May (r = 0.71, p < 0.01, 1931–2000), and to temperature primarily during the late spring and early summer, January–July (r 0 −0.67, p < 0.01, 1931–2000), in spite of differences in phylogeny and microsite conditions. The instrumental climate data for the region indicate that warmer conditions during the January–July season most relevant to radial growth are beginning to exceed the warmest episode of the 20th century in both intensity and duration. The strong negative correlation between temperature and tree growth indicates that these four conifer species may be challenged by the warmer temperatures forecast in the coming decades for the borderlands region due to anthropogenic forcing. This information could constitute a baseline to analyze the impact of climate change in other regions of Mexico and the USA, where conifer species are of great ecological and socioeconomical importance.

Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. Individual fires often increase short-term nitrogen (N) availability to plants, but repeated burning causes ecosystem N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organic matter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorly understood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, we evaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation composition influenced wood stable N isotopes (δ¹⁵N) across space and time at one of the longest running prescribed burn experiments in the world (established in 1964). We developed multiple δ¹⁵N records across a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across four treatment stands that varied with respect to the temporal onset of burning and burn frequency but were consistent in overstory species representation, soil characteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburned control stand to a high-fire-frequency stand that had burned in 4 of every 5 years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net N mineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands, we hypothesized that wood δ¹⁵N trajectories would decline through time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to the fire frequency. We found that wood δ¹⁵N records within each stand were remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. A gradual decline in wood δ¹⁵N occurred in the mid-20th century in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was no trend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did not systematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, we found limited evidence for variation in wood δ¹⁵N that could be attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribed burn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ¹⁵N results may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetation composition and abundance due to early- to mid-20th-century fire suppression.

Instrumental observations indicate that Amazon precipitation and streamflow extremes have increased during the last 40 years, possibly due to anthropogenic changes and natural variability. How unprecedented these changes might be is difficult to determine because some paleoclimatic, instrumental, and climate model simulations suggest that Amazonian precipitation and streamflow may be subject to multidecadal variability with return intervals longer than most direct observations. A new 258‐year long tree‐ring chronology of Cedrela odorata has been developed in the eastern Amazon and has been used to reconstruct wet season precipitation totals from 1759–2016. Reconstructed drought extremes are associated with significant sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Strong multidecadal variance is identified in the reconstruction that may reflect a component of natural rainfall variability relevant to forest ecosystem dynamics and suggesting that recent hydroclimate changes over the eastern Amazon may not be unprecedented over the past 258 years.

Cool- and warm-season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December–April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May–July totals. These discrete seasonal chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season; the December–April reconstructions are skillful over most of the southern and western United States and north-central Mexico, and the May–July estimates have skill over most of the United States, southwestern Canada, and northeastern Mexico. Both the strong continent-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool-season reconstructions and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm-season estimates faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean–atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the sixteenth-century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500 years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts, each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Significant 200–500-yr-long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool- and warm-season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the eastern area that began as a result of natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.

Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. A single fire event often increases short-term nitrogen (N) availability to individual plants, but repeated burning causes ecosystem carbon and N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organic matter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorly understood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, we leveraged one of the longest running prescribed burn experiments (established in 1964) to evaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation composition influenced wood stable N isotopes (δ¹⁵N) across space and time. We developed multiple δ¹⁵N records across a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree-rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across four treatment stands that varied in temporal onset of burning and burn frequency, but were consistent in overstory species representation, soil characteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburned control stand to a high fire-frequency stand that burned in four of every five years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net N mineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands, we hypothesized that wood δ¹⁵N trajectories would have declined over time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to fire frequency. We found that wood δ15N records within each stand were remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. A gradual, temporally synchronous decline in wood δ¹⁵N occurred in the mid 20th century in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was no trend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did not systematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, we found limited evidence for variation in wood δ¹⁵N that could be attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribed burn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ¹⁵N results may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetation composition and abundance due to early to mid 20th century fire suppression.