John E. Anderson

This study examines how the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the associated Great Recession coincided with demographic sorting patterns within and across communities/neighborhoods in the metropolitan areas of Phoenix, St. Louis, and Denver, three areas that experienced varying degrees of mortgage foreclosure exposure during the crisis. Using restricted-access American Community Survey data paired with Housing and Urban Development foreclosure data, the analysis first creates coefficient of variation measures to document changes in neighborhood heterogeneity and then presents regression models linking foreclosure exposure to shifts in community/neighborhood composition. We use Tiebout sorting predictions of within-neighborhood homogeneity and across-neighborhood heterogeneity as an interpretive lens for the empirical findings. The coefficient of variation analysis shows that sorting intensified most along housing tenure, racial, and income dimensions, with Phoenix experiencing the largest changes, St. Louis moderate, and Denver relatively stable. Regression further indicate that greater foreclosure exposure was associated with stronger resorting and that the cost dimension of mortgage credit played a more significant role than leverage ratios in sorting patterns. Overall, the findings suggest that the Great Recession amplified heterogeneous sorting activity across demographic characteristics, particularly in metropolitan areas most affected by foreclosure activity.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) changed tax policy in two important aspects. It limited state and local tax deductions (SALT) to $10,000 and lowered marginal tax rates in most income brackets. In this analysis, I estimate house price time series models for 20 U.S. cities using Case-Shiller data and test for series breaks when TCJA was adopted and implemented. The purpose is to test whether there is a unit root with breakpoints in each series. If so, the TCJA shock was permanent, not transitory, and the time series process is not mean reverting. Results reveal significant breaks in 12 of the 20 city indices. Additionally, there are significant breakpoints in 22 of the 48 tests across city price tiers (16 cities with three house price tiers each). The modal break date is the month of TCJA legislation passage with another 13 significant breakpoints within six months of TCJA adoption. Results indicate that TCJA was associated with an initial negative effect on house prices in many housing markets and price tiers. Importantly, the presence of unit root processes indicates that house price dynamics are more variable subsequently.

This study uses business survey data to analyze firm perceptions of infrastructure systems in transition countries as obstacles to conducting business. Factors that contribute to reported perceptions are modeled, including country macroeconomic conditions, firm characteristics, and measures of overall reforms and infrastructure system reforms. Identified obstacles arise from binding constraints that limit economic growth, reflect implicit shadow costs, and signal areas in need of policy reform or infrastructure investment. The analysis covers electric power, telecommunications, transportation, and water and wastewater infrastructure systems. Also examined is whether transition indicators of reforms, intended to reflect improvements, are associated with perceptions of obstacles. Beyond identifying infrastructure obstacles and the effects of reforms during the transition process, we also explore firm adoptions of new electronic technologies, essentially a new infrastructure system, as they use email, websites, cell phones, and high-speed Internet in their business activity.

In this paper we examine stated preferences for income redistribution by survey respondents across many countries. We provide a theoretical basis explaining how citizens may desire income redistribution mechanisms. Those theoretical insights are then used to motivate estimates of six different empirical models of survey respondent’s preferences for redistribution using the latest World Values Survey-Wave 7. We test the prospect of upward mobility (POUM) hypothesis which holds that people below the median, expecting their future income to be higher than their current income, have less desire for redistribution. Our modeling approach is to use the Generalized Ordered Logit (GOLOGIT) estimation method which permits categorical coefficient estimates to differ by income, thereby providing insight on redistribution attitudes throughout the income distribution. There is wide variation in background, context, and experience across the countries represented in the data set, so our analysis also extends to examine heterogeneity in redistribution preferences observed among the countries from which the survey data is collected.

This study presents an empirical analysis of individual expressions of confidence in the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) using the World Values Survey-Wave 7 data. The main hypothesis tested is that confidence in each institution is positively associated with alignment of survey respondents’ economic beliefs and the policies of the institution. Close alignment of individual beliefs and institution policies are hypothesized to underpin expressions of confidence, whereas misalignment between beliefs and policies are associated with expressions of less confidence. Discrete choice models (Ordered LOGIT) of respondent’s expressions of confidence are estimated controlling for both country and individual characteristics. Generalized Ordered logit (GOLOGIT) models are estimated which allow explanatory variable coefficients to vary across levels of expressed confidence thereby revealing heterogeneous effects by income and other critical economic factors. The empirical models of expressed confidence are estimated including specific explanatory variables associated with the institution’s role and mission. Closer alignment of beliefs with institutional policies is positively associated with greater confidence. However, greater national reliance on assistance from either the IMF or the World Bank is associated with significantly less confidence, suggesting conditionalities for that assistance are resented by respondents in those countries.

This paper employs an extensive household survey data set covering a wide range of transition countries to empirically characterize real estate ownership of households. The types of dwellings, housing tenure (own vs rent), second home and land ownership, and mortgage prevalence by household respondents are empirically analyzed. Theoretical motivation for the empirical analysis recognizes both formal payments for real estate and/or mortgages, and informal methods of acquisition or the use of a favor (blat) as is common in many transition economies. To explain the wide variation in real estate ownership and mortgage patterns across countries, empirical models of both ownership/renting and mortgage prevalence are estimated. using limited dependent variable methods. Individual characteristics, country economic conditions, and regional controls are used in the models, all of which are found to be associated. with ownership. One unique aspect of real estate markets in these countries is evident in the estimations–membership in the Communist Party or a family history of membership, has a significant positive effect on the likelihood of owning a second home or a parcel of land. An instrumental variable (IV) approach is employed in estimation of second home and land ownership, where Party membership is endogenous. Similarly, in estimation of home loan prevalence, trust in banks and the financial system is modeled as endogenous with an IV approach. Data used in this study are from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Life in Transition Survey, LITS III, for the year 2016 covering 29 transition countries plus Kosovo.