Ivan Savin

The State of the Nation Addresses (SONA) are the most authoritative form of presidential communication in the Republic of Kazakhstan. They outline the president’s position on key national priorities and present the government’s medium-term policy agenda. This study analyses 28 SONAs delivered between 1997 and 2024 using structural topic modeling and sentiment analysis to examine the interplay between speech content, sentiment, and the country’s macroeconomic conditions. We identify nine core topics, with industrial development emerging as the most popular one, rising from under 1% in 1999 to over 42% in 2023. President Tokayev emphasizes reforms and democracy, while President Nazarbayev placed greater focus on national identity. We find that GDP is significantly associated with prevalence of multiple topics, suggesting that economic performance shapes rhetorical priorities. Sentiment analysis reveals a consistent positive–neutral–positive arc within speeches, with similar tones in the openings and conclusions. These findings are interpreted through the lens of spin dictator theory, suggesting that presidential rhetoric functions as a responsive instrument of authoritarian legitimation, calibrated to macroeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that changes in presidential rhetoric can serve as an early indicator of shifting policy priorities and regime responses to evolving socioeconomic conditions.

European policymakers face a persistent dilemma: how to sustain economic performance while accelerating the green transition. This paper shows that the perceived trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection is overstated. Drawing on new survey evidence from over 19,000 EU citizens, it demonstrates that a majority view economic growth as necessary for environmental protection and social stability, in contrast to the more sceptical stance among policy experts. This perception gap shapes the political feasibility of climate policies. Public support does not hinge on ideology but on how policies are designed, how their benefits are communicated, and how their costs are distributed, especially for vulnerable groups. At the same time, recent evidence indicates that welldesigned environmental policies can reduce emissions without systematically undermining economic competitiveness, while their effects are amplified through social dynamics that lower the effective cost of transition. For European policymakers, the implication is clear: successful climate strategies must align economic and environmental objectives, target the large group of conditional supporters through credible and fair policy design, and combine domestic instruments with measures that address competitiveness concerns along global value chains. The challenge is therefore not to choose between growth and decarbonisation, but to design policies that make them mutually reinforcing and politically viable.

Many countries combine carbon pricing with renewable-energy policies. Microeconomic theory predicts this combination yields no additional emissions reductions under cap-and-trade and only potentially under carbon taxation, but at a social welfare loss. We undertook a systematic literature review of emissions-reduction synergy, identifying many ex-ante but only one ex-post study – explained by the lack of policy counterfactuals. In 72% of ex-ante 127 estimates from 80 studies, combining instruments reduces emissions more than either instrument alone. Additional reductions are more common under carbon taxation, as theory predicts, but also occur under cap-and-trade. Across 85 exact synergy estimates, the policy combination yields about 22% greater emissions reductions on average. Regarding welfare effects, 74 of 119 ex-ante estimates from 79 papers indicate some benefit from adding a second instrument. Deviations from theory reflect model assumptions, such as incomplete emissions coverage, implementation constraints, social welfare metrics limited to consumer utility, and market or government failures including fossil fuel subsidies. While ex-post estimates are less likely to detect non-zero synergy, the single ex-post study broadly supports our findings.

The concept of a "climate club" of countries has emerged as a bottom-up strategy to overcome non-harmonised and weak climate policies worldwide. This study examines the potential of such a club to expand into a global climate agreement using an empirically calibrated agent-based model that simulates its dynamics and convergence to a stable coalition. The model describes 31 heterogeneous regions in terms of carbon emissions, abatement costs, domestic carbon prices, and trade flows. Each simulation includes several decision-making rounds, in which non-members consider joining the club while club members consider leaving it, based on comparing relevant costs and benefits. We run the model for multiple scenarios with different initial coalitions, carbon prices, border carbon tariffs, and tariff revenue allocations. The results indicate that a club created by the European Union alone or together with China or the United States can achieve global coverage with a high carbon price if the border carbon tariff is sufficiently stringent. A partial return of border tariff revenues can serve to mitigate the risk of trade retaliation and further motivate outsiders to join the club.

Companies increasingly use ESG reports to communicate their environmental priorities, yet it remains unclear whether the issues they emphasise correspond to measurable improvements in environmental performance. Using computational linguistics, we analyse the full texts of 1,477 ESG reports from companies listed in the STOXX Europe 600 index, identifying 34 main topics—six of which are related to environment. We describe how these topics evolve over time and differ across sectors, cluster companies based on their thematic focus, and test whether specific topics are associated with tangible low-carbon transition efforts. Our findings show that the alignment between environmental communication and environmental performance is topic-dependent. Topics such as sustainable value chains and renewable energy are associated with improvements in environmental KPIs, whereas others, including emissions or electric vehicles, show no significant association. Methodologically, our study advances prior work by combining structural topic modelling with firm-level KPI analysis to evaluate ESG disclosure at the level of specific environmental themes rather than aggregate reporting measures. Our study demonstrates how topic-specific reporting patterns relate to environmental outcomes and offers a more nuanced understanding of when ESG reporting reflects substantive environmental action.

Although economic growth remains a central objective in policymaking and political discourse, its compatibility with environmental sustainability is increasingly contested. Yet it remains unclear whether this debate is reflected in public opinion. We therefore undertake a cross-national survey of 16,781 people across 13 EU countries to assess citizens’ attitudes in this regard. We find that nearly 60% of citizens express pro-growth views, seeing economic growth as essential for a sustainable society. Of these, more than half hold a moderate and less than half a strong pro-growth view. Additionally, a third of respondents show indifference about growth, while less than 10% hold views that are sceptical about growth. Wealthier countries with less income inequality show lower support for economic growth. Pro-growth attitudes correlate positively with both self-enhancement and self-transcendence values, suggesting that citizens may view growth not only as a means for personal advancement but also as a pathway to collective wellbeing. Growth attitudes have no significant association with climate concern or climate policy support, suggesting a more nuanced picture than a traditional trade-off narrative.

We discuss two features of quantitative studies of climate policy that have not received much attention but could considerably affect insights: ex-ante versus ex-post approaches, and heterogeneity of socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics of individuals. The reason to combine them in one study is that the heterogeneous factors seem to differ considerably between ex-ante and ex-post approaches. This might translate in systematic differences in policy insights between the two types of studies. To clarify this issue, we undertake a systematic literature review comparing the studies in terms of topics and socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics covered. Our assessment uses both quantitative and qualitative analysis: the former provides an overview of topics across studies using computational linguistic analysis, while the latter offers detailed insights into heterogeneous characteristics and their relationship to study findings. We find that while many studies examine the impact of climate policy on equity, few studies examine the influence of considering heterogeneous individual characteristics on outcomes of evaluating alternative climate policies. Our assessment covers two policy issues, namely public support of climate policy and the impact of such policy on carbon emissions. We show that the two approaches differ systematically in both method use and the policy instruments studied. Overall, integrating both approaches yields a more nuanced understanding of climate policy. Future research, especially ex-ante studies, should examine a broader range of heterogeneous factors and their effects on policy effectiveness and public support.

The feasibility of implementing climate policies relies on citizen support. While recent efforts have focused on shifting the attitudes of policy opponents, little is known about the middle group who neither reflexively endorse nor reject mitigation measures. Here, using a survey of climate policy preferences across 13 EU countries (n = 19,328) in 2024, we identify the ‘conditionals’—a crucial faction of moderates whose support shifts across 15 climate measures— and examine the factors influencing their choices and quantify their electoral impact. Conditionals constitute 33% of Europeans who are active voters for the dominant centrist and centre-right parties. The preferences of conditionals hinge upon specific policy instruments and the perceived cost–benefit balances but less on fixed ideology or demographics. The potential shift of conditionals plays a vital role in shaping overall patterns of public policy support and electoral outcomes. Our findings emphasize the visible benefits of strategic engagement with conditionals for climate policy success.