António Brum da Silveira

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

This study addresses long-term sea level variability in Macaronesia from a holistic perspective using all available instrumental records in the region, including a dense network of GPS continuous stations, tide gauges and satellite observations. A detailed assessment of vertical movement from GPS time series underlines the influence of the complex volcano-tectonic setting of the Macaronesian islands in local uplift/subsidence. Relative sea level for the region is spatially highly variable, ranging from −1.1 to 5.1 mm yr⁻¹. Absolute sea level from satellite altimetry exhibits consistent trends in the Macaronesia, with a mean value of 3.0 ± 0.5 mm yr⁻¹. Typically, sea level trends from tide gauge records corrected for vertical movement using the estimates from GPS time series are lower than uncorrected estimates. The agreement between satellite altimetry and tide gauge trends corrected for vertical land varies substantially from island to island. Trends derived from the combination of GPS and tide gauge observations differ by less than 1 mm yr⁻¹ with respect to absolute sea level trends from satellite altimetry for 56 per cent of the stations, despite the heterogeneity in length of both GPS and tide gauge series, and the influence of volcanic-tectonic processes affecting the position of some GPS stations.

The geodynamic setting of the Azores archipelago, straddling the triple junction between the North America, Eurasia and Nubia plates, is reflected in frequent volcanic and tectonic activity. A review of neotectonics is presented for the islands forming the central and eastern groups of the Azores (Faial, Pico, São Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira, São Miguel and Santa Maria). The geometry and kinematics of active faults displacing stratigraphic and geomorphological markers of Pleistocene and Holocene age are presented. Slip-rates were determined using the available ages for the displaced markers. Maximum expected moment magnitudes were estimated using empirical correlations between magnitude and fault length, fault area and maximum observed surface displacement during surface-rupturing palaeoearthquakes. Neotectonic parameters show that the faults are in most cases very to moderately active, with slip-rates usually ranging from a few tenths of millimetres to a few millimetres per year, while maximum expected magnitudes vary from M _w 6 to 7. These magnitudes are in agreement with the instrumental and historical seismic record in the region. Neotectonic data define a dextral transtensive stress regime acting on the region and contribute to characterizing the complexity of the geodynamic processes that dominate the western-most segment of the Eurasia–Nubia plate boundary.

The transition from seamount to oceanic island typically involves surtseyan volcanism. However, the geological record at many islands in the NE Atlantic—all located within the slow‐moving Nubian plate—does not exhibit evidence for an emergent surtseyan phase but rather an erosive unconformity between the submarine basement and the overlying subaerial shield sequences. This suggests that the transition between seamount and island may frequently occur by a relative fall of sea level through uplift, eustatic changes, or a combination of both, and may not involve summit volcanism. In this study, we explore the consequences for island evolutionary models using Madeira Island (Portugal) as a case study. We have examined the geologic record at Madeira using a combination of detailed fieldwork, biostratigraphy, and geochronology in order to document the mode, timing, and duration of edifice emergence above sea level. Our study confirms that Madeira's subaerial shield volcano was built upon the eroded remains of an uplifted seamount, with shallow marine sediments found between the two eruptive sequences and presently located at 320–430 m above sea level. This study reveals that Madeira emerged around 7.0–5.6 Ma essentially through an uplift process and before volcanic activity resumed to form the subaerial shield volcano. Basal intrusions are a likely uplift mechanism, and their emplacement is possibly enhanced by the slow motion of the Nubian plate relative to the source of partial melting. Alternating uplift and subsidence episodes suggest that island edifice growth may be governed by competing dominantly volcanic and dominantly intrusive processes.

Vilanova, Susana P. ... et. al.-- 18 pages, electronic supplement http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/104/3/1212/suppl/DC1In probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA), seismic source zone (SSZ) models are widely used to account for the contribution to the hazard from earthquakes not directly correlated with geological structures. Notwithstanding the impact of SSZ models in PSHA, the theoretical framework underlying SSZ models and the criteria used to delineate the SSZs are seldom explicitly stated and suitably documented. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework to develop and document SSZ models, which includes (1) an assessment of the appropriate scale and degree of stationarity, (2) an assessment of seismicity catalog completeness‐related issues, and (3) an evaluation and credibility ranking of physical criteria used to delineate the boundaries of the SSZs. We also emphasize the need for SSZ models to be supported by a comprehensive set of metadata documenting both the unique characteristics of each SSZ and the criteria used to delineate its boundaries. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties in the model can be properly addressed in the PSHA and that the model can be easily updated whenever new data are available. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the SSZ model developed for the Azores–West Iberian region in the context of the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe project (project SHARE) and some of the most relevant SSZs are discussed in detailPeer reviewe