Clara Burgert-Brucker

Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. Between 29^th February 2016 and 24^th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Trachoma is an eye disease caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). It can lead to permanent vision loss. Since 2007, Burundi has included trachoma elimination as part of its fight against neglected tropical diseases and blindness. This study presents the results of trachoma baseline, impact and surveillance surveys conducted in Burundi between 2018 and 2021. Areas were grouped into evaluation units (EU) with resident populations of between 100,000 and 250,000 people. Baseline surveys were conducted in 15 EUs, impact surveys in 2 EUs and surveillance surveys in 5 EUs; in each survey, 23 clusters of about 30 households were included. Consenting residents of those households were screened for clinical signs of trachoma. Access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) was recorded. A total of 63,800 individuals were examined. The prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was above the elimination threshold of 5% in a single EU at baseline, but fell below the threshold in subsequent impact and surveillance surveys. The prevalence of TT was below the 0.2% elimination threshold in ≥15-year-olds in all EUs surveyed. A high proportion (83%) of households had access to safe drinking water, while only a minority (~8%) had access to improved latrines. Burundi has demonstrated the prevalence levels necessary for trachoma elimination status. With continued effort and the maintenance of existing management plans, trachoma elimination in Burundi is within reach.

Trachoma is a public health problem in 42 countries. Inflammation associated with repeated ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis can cause the eyelid to scar and turn inwards, resulting in the eyelashes rubbing against the eyeball, known as trachomatous trichiasis (TT). In Guinea, baseline surveys conducted in 2013 reported inflammatory trachoma prevalences below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for elimination, but TT prevalences above threshold. Given this epidemiological context and time since baseline survey, TT-only surveys were conducted in selected districts to determine current TT prevalence. The results of this study provide critical data for assessing Guinea's achievement of trachoma elimination targets. Four health districts, consisting of six evaluation units (EU), were surveyed. In each EU, field teams visited 29 clusters with a minimum 30 households included in each. Participants aged≥15 years were examined by certified graders trained to identify TT and determine whether management had been offered. A total of 22,476 people were examined, with 48 TT cases across the six EUs identified. Five of six EUs had an age-and-gender adjusted TT-prevalence unknown to the health system less than 0.2%, whereas one EU, Beyla 2, had an adjusted TT prevalence of 0.24%. These TT-only surveys, along with findings from other trachoma interventions, suggest that Guinea is close to achieving elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. This study demonstrates the value of undertaking TT-only surveys in settings where baseline surveys indicated active trachoma prevalences below WHO elimination threshold, but TT prevalences above it.

Background: Trachoma is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Understanding individual, household, or community-associated factors that may lead to continued transmission or risk of recrudescence in areas where elimination has previously been achieved, is essential in reaching and maintaining trachoma elimination. We aimed to identify climatic, demographic, environmental, infrastructural, and socioeconomic factors associated in the literature with trachoma at community-level and assess the strength of their association with trachoma. Because of the potential power of geospatial analysis to delineate the variables most strongly associated with differences in trachoma prevalence, we then looked in detail at geospatial analysis methods used in previous trachoma studies. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review using five databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Dissertations & Theses Global, and Web of Science, including publications from January 1950 to January 2021. The review protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020191718). Results: Of 35 eligible studies, 29 included 59 different trachoma-associated factors, with eight studies also including spatial analysis methods. Six studies included spatial analysis methods only. Higher trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) prevalence was associated with areas that: had lower mean annual precipitation, lower mean annual temperatures, and lower altitudes; were rural, were less accessible, had fewer medical services, had fewer schools; and had lower access to water and sanitation. Higher trachomatous trichiasis (TT) prevalence was associated with higher aridity index and increased distance to stable nightlights. Of the 14 studies that included spatial methods, 11 used exploratory spatial data analysis methods, three used interpolation methods, and seven used spatial modelling methods. Conclusion: Researchers and decision-makers should consider the inclusion and potential influence of trachoma-associated factors as part of both research activities and programmatic priorities. The use of geospatial methods in trachoma studies remains limited but offers the potential to define disease hotspots and areas of potential recrudescence to inform local, national, and global programmatic needs.

Background: Guyana is one of four countries in the Latin American Region where lymphatic filariasis (LF) remains endemic. In preparation for the introduction of a new triple drug therapy regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA)) in 2019, an acceptability study was embedded within sentinel site mapping in four regions to assess mass drug administration (MDA) coverage and compliance, acceptability, and perceptions about treatment and disease. The results from this survey would inform the rollout of IDA in Guyana in 2019. Methods: Data collection for the study occurred in August 2019, using a validated questionnaire administered by trained enumerators. Across all regions, a total of 1,248 participants were sampled by the Filarial Mapping team. Four-hundred and fifty-one participants aged over 18 years were randomly selected for participation in an expanded acceptability questionnaire. All data were captured in Secure Data Kit (SDK). Results: Acceptability was measured using a mean acceptability score. Unadjusted mean scores ranged from 24.6 to 29.3, with 22.5 as the threshold of acceptability. Regional variation occurred across many indicators of interest: self-rated understanding about LF, mechanisms of LF transmission, LF drug safety and history of treatment during MDA. Region IV (Georgetown) recorded higher knowledge about LF, but lower compliance and acceptability. Number of pills was not perceived as a concern. Conclusion: Acceptability of MDA was good across all four regions under study. Results from this study set a baseline level for key indicators and acceptability, from which the acceptability of IDA can be measured. Regional variations across indicators suggest that localized approaches should be considered for social mobilization and MDA delivery to capture these contextual differences.

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five effective rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and demonstrating low prevalence in subsequent assessments. The first assessments recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are sentinel and spot-check sites—referred to as pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)—in each implementation unit after MDA. If pre-TAS shows that prevalence in each site has been lowered to less than 1% microfilaremia or less than 2% antigenemia, the implementation unit conducts a TAS to determine whether MDA can be stopped. Failure to pass pre-TAS means that further rounds of MDA are required. This study aims to understand factors influencing pre-TAS results using existing programmatic data from 554 implementation units, of which 74 (13%) failed, in 13 countries. Secondary data analysis was completed using existing data from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additional covariate data were obtained from spatial raster data sets. Bivariate analysis and multilinear regression were performed to establish potential relationships between variables and the pre-TAS result. Higher baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant in the regression model. Variables statistically significantly associated with failure (p-value ≤0.05) in the bivariate analyses included baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of Filariasis Test Strips (FTS), primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, higher elevation, higher population density, higher enhanced vegetation index (EVI), higher annual rainfall, and 6 or more rounds of MDA. This paper reports for the first time factors associated with pre-TAS results from a multi-country analysis. This information can help countries more effectively forecast program activities, such as the potential need for more rounds of MDA, and prioritize resources to ensure adequate coverage of all persons in areas at highest risk of failing pre-TAS. Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and being able to demonstrate low prevalence in several subsequent assessments. LF elimination programs implement sentinel and spot-check site assessments, called pre-TAS, to determine whether districts are eligible to implement more rigorous population-based surveys to determine whether MDA can be stopped or if further rounds are required. Reasons for failing pre-TAS are not well understood and have not previously been examined with data compiled from multiple countries. For this analysis, we analyzed data from routine USAID and WHO reports from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. In a model that included multiple variables, high baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant. In models comparing only one variable to the outcome, the following were statistically significantly associated with failure: higher baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of the FTS, primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, lower elevation, higher population density, higher Enhanced Vegetation Index, higher annual rainfall, and six or more rounds of mass drug administration. These results can help national programs plan MDA more effectively, e.g., by focusing resources on areas with higher baseline prevalence and/or lower elevation.

Seasonal variation in the proportion of the population using an insecticide-treated net (ITN) is well documented and is widely believed to be dependent on mosquito abundance and heat, driven by rainfall and temperature. However, seasonal variation in ITN use has not been quantified controlling for ITN access. Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey datasets, their georeferenced data, and public rainfall and climate layers were pooled for 21 countries. Nine rainfall typologies were developed from rainfall patterns in Köppen climate zones. For each typology, the odds of ITN use among individuals with access to an ITN within their households (“ITN use given access”) were estimated for each month of the year, controlling for region, wealth quintile, residence, year, temperature, and malaria parasitemia level. Seasonality of ITN use given access was observed over all nine rainfall typologies and was most pronounced in arid climates and less pronounced where rainfall was relatively constant throughout the year. Peak ITN use occurred 1–3 months after peak rainfall and corresponded with peak malaria incidence and average malaria transmission season. The observed lags between peak rainfall and peak ITN use given access suggest that net use is triggered by mosquito density. In equatorial areas, ITN use is likely to be high year-round, given the presence of mosquitoes and an associated year-round perceived malaria risk. These results can be used to inform behavior change interventions to improve ITN use in specific times of the year and to inform geospatial models of the impact of ITNs on transmission.

One challenge to achieving Millennium Development Goals was inequitable access to quality health services. In order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, interventions need to reach underserved populations. Analyzing health indicators in small geographic units aids the identification of hotspots where coverage lags behind neighboring areas. The purpose of these analyses is to identify areas of low coverage or high need in order to inform effective resource allocation to reduce child health inequity between and within countries. Using data from The Demographic and Health Survey Program surveys conducted in 27 selected African countries between 2010 and 2014, we computed estimates for six child health indicators for subnational regions. We calculated Global Moran’s I statistics and used Local Indicator of Spatial Association analysis to produce a spatial layer showing spatial associations. We created maps to visualize sub-national autocorrelation and spatial clusters. The Global Moran’s I statistic was positive for each indicator (range: 0.41 to 0.68), and statistically significant (p <0.05), suggesting spatial autocorrelation across national borders, and highlighting the need to examine health indicators both across countries and within them. Patterns of substantial differences among contiguous subareas were apparent; the average intra-country difference for each indicator exceeded 20 percentage points. Clusters of cross-border associations were also apparent, facilitating the identification of hotspots and informing the allocation of resources to reduce child health inequity between and within countries. This study exposes differences in health indicators in contiguous geographic areas, indicating that specific regional and subnational, in addition to national, strategies to improve health and reduce health inequalities are warranted.

Spatially interpolated map surface datasets for key development indicators are being produced and publicly shared using population‐based surveys from the USAID‐funded Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program. Each modeled surface is produced with standardized geostatistical modeling methods. For each indicator, a package is available that includes spatial raster grids of 5 × 5 km pixels for the point estimate surface and an uncertainty surface, along with validation statistics and other model diagnostic data. The maps are publicly available for download on the DHS Program Spatial Data Repository at http://spatialdata.dhsprogram.com/. The modeled surfaces are produced with publicly available geo‐referenced data on each indicator as collected by the DHS Program, augmented with other relevant spatial data sources that act as covariates. A Bayesian model−based geostatistical (MBG) approach is used to generate the modeled surfaces. Spatially modeled surfaces can be used to support and improve decision‐making at multiple levels within many development programs including health, population, family planning, nutrition, and water and sanitation. The modeled surfaces can be used in their original 5 × 5 km pixel format, operationalized to other geographic areas as relevant for the program, or linked to DHS or other survey data for additional analysis.