Gustavo Jorge Goni

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated Meridional Heat Transport (MHT) can affect climate and weather patterns, regional sea levels, and ecosystems. Direct observations of the AMOC are still limited, particularly in the South Atlantic. This study establishes a cost‐effective trans‐basin section to estimate for the first time the AMOC and MHT at 22.5°S, using only sustained ocean observations. For this, an optimal mapping method that minimizes the difference between surface in situ dynamic height and satellite altimetry was developed to retrieve monthly temperature and salinity profiles from Argo and XBT data along the 22.5°S section. The mean states, as well as the interannual and seasonal changes of the obtained AMOC and MHT were compared with other products. The mean AMOC and MHT for 22.5°S are 16.3 ± 3.2 Sv and 0.7 ± 0.2 PW, respectively, showing stronger transports during austral fall/winter and weaker in spring. The high‐density XBT data available at the western boundary were vital for capturing the highly variable Brazil Current (BC), whose mean and variability was improved compared to other products. At 22.5°S, the North Atlantic Deep Water is divided into two cores that flow along both the western and the eastern boundaries near 2,500 m depth. Our results (a) suggest a greater influence of the western boundary current system on the AMOC variability at 22.5°S, (b) highlight the importance of high‐density in situ data for AMOC estimates, and (c) contribute to a better understanding of the AMOC and MHT variability in the South Atlantic.

A recent Maxey–Riley theory for Sargassum raft motion, which models a raft as a network of elastically interacting finite size, buoyant particles, predicts the carrying flow velocity to be given by the weighted sum of the water and air velocities (1−α)v+αw. The theory provides a closed formula for parameter α, referred to as windage, depending on the water-to-particle-density ratio or buoyancy (δ). From a series of laboratory experiments in an air–water stream flume facility under controlled conditions, we estimate α ranging from 0.02% to 0.96%. On average, our windage estimates can be up to nine times smaller than that considered in conventional Sargassum raft transport modeling, wherein it is customary to add a fraction of w to v chosen in an ad hoc piecemeal manner. Using the formula provided by the Maxey–Riley theory, we estimate δ ranging from 1.00 to 1.49. This is consistent with direct δ measurements, ranging from 0.9 to 1.25, which provide support for our α estimation.

Satellite and in‐situ measurements are used in this study to investigate a possible link between the Florida Current transport (FCT) and temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. Consistent with the geostrophic nature of the current, the FCT variability shows good correspondence with the changes in sea surface height differences (∆SSH) between the eastern (SSH_east) and western (SSH_west) sides of the Florida Straits. While the variability of SSH_west is mostly associated with seasonal and shorter timescale fluctuations of ∆SSH and FCT, changes in SSH_east are strongly related to the interannual variability of ∆SSH and FCT. A significant correlation is found between the FCT and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) on interannual timescales, which explains 21% of the interannual FCT variance. The connection of ONI with FCT is through its impact on SSH_east, associated with the anomalous convergence/divergence in the Caribbean region and the Bahamas forced by ONI‐induced wind stress curl changes.

We identify effective carriers of Sargassum in the Caribbean Sea and describe a mechanism for coastal choking. Revealed from satellite altimetry, the carriers of Sargassum are mesoscale eddies (vortices of 50-km radius or larger) with coherent material (i.e., fluid) boundaries. These are observer-independent—unlike eddy boundaries identified with instantaneously closed streamlines of the altimetric sea-surface height field—and furthermore harbor finite-time attractors for networks of elastically connected finite-size buoyant or “inertial” particles dragged by ocean currents and winds, a mathematical abstraction of Sargassum rafts. The mechanism of coastal inundation, identified using a minimal model of surface-intensified Caribbean Sea eddies, is thermal instability in the presence of bottom topography.

We identify effective carriers of \emph{Sargassum} in the Caribbean Sea and describe a mechanism for coastal choking. Revealed from satellite altimetry, the carriers of \emph{Sargassum} are mesoscale eddies (vortices of 50-km radius or larger) with coherent material (i.e., fluid) boundaries. These are observer-independent -- \emph{unlike} eddy boundaries identified with instantaneously closed streamlines of the altimetric sea-surface height field -- and furthermore harbor finite-time attractors for networks of elastically connected finite-size buoyant or "inertial" particles dragged by ocean currents and winds, a mathematical abstraction of \emph{Sargassum} rafts. The mechanism of coastal inundation, identified using a minimal model of surface-intensified Caribbean Sea eddies, is thermal instability in the presence of bottom topography.

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a major driver in global redistribution of heat, which modulates global climate and weather. Altimeter sea surface height measurements and in situ hydrographic data are combined in this work to derive monthly synthetic temperature and salinity (T/S) profiles along zonal transbasin sections in both the North (26.5°N) and South (20°S, 25°S, 30°S, and 35°S) Atlantic Ocean since 1993, which are then used to estimate the MOC and meridional heat transport (MHT). Consistent with previous studies, the results indicate that the MHT is highly correlated with the MOC at all five latitudes. At 26.5°N the mean MHT from synthetic profiles (1.09 ± 0.21 PW) is slightly lower than that from the RAPID‐MOCHA‐WBTS array (1.20 ± 0.28 PW), but their interannual variabilities show good agreements. Both the geostrophic and Ekman components contribute significantly to the MHT variability, with the geostrophic component dominating during 1993–2004 and the Ekman component dominating during 2005–2014. In the South Atlantic, the MHT seasonal cycle strengthens southward from 20°S to 34.5°S. On interannual time scale, the MHT at 20°S and 25°S experiences larger variations than that at 30°S and 34.5°S, in part due to the fact that the geostrophic and Ekman components work together to strengthen the MHT changes, while they tend to work against each other at 30°S and 34.5°S. Results shown here suggest that integrating data from different observing platforms provides better means to estimate the MOC and MHT in near real time.

Pelagic Sargassum is a buoyant macroalgae that forms rafts at the ocean surface and serves as a biologically rich habitat for hundreds of diverse marine species. Since 2011, massive blooms of Sargassum have occurred in the tropical Atlantic and swept through the western tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. These recurring annual events have caused significant disruptions to coastal communities throughout the region, negatively impacting human health, tourism, fishing, navigation, and nearshore ecosystems. We present here the Sargassum Inundation Report (SIR), a product that uses satellite-based methodology to estimate and predict the future coastal inundation of pelagic Sargassum. Results from one year of SIRs show strong spatiotemporal differences in the potential of coastal inundation across the Intra-American Seas, and provide a comprehensive method for assessing its geographic distribution and temporal variation. Comparisons of SIRs to opportunistically collected photographs indicate a qualitative concordance between satellite and in situ observations. This work highlights the value of satellite observations, basin-wide and seasonal monitoring, and emphasises the need for sub-regional and weekly forecasting. SIRs show considerable promise as a tool that can eventually incorporate improved spatiotemporal resolution Sargassum imagery, ocean circulation, wind, and wave conditions to forecast the movement of Sargassum into coastal areas.

High‐ and low‐resolution coupled climate model simulations are analyzed to investigate the impact of model resolution on South Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (OHC) variability at interannual time scale and the associated physical mechanisms. In both models, ocean heat transport convergence is the main driver of OHC variability on interannual time scales. However, the origin of the meridional heat transport (MHT) convergence anomalies differs in the two models. In the high‐resolution model, OHC variability is dominated by MHT from the south. This is in contrast to the low‐resolution model, where OHC variability is largely controlled by MHT from the north. In the low‐resolution simulation, both the Ekman and geostrophic transports contribute to the OHC variability, whereas in the high‐resolution model, the geostrophic transport dominates. These differences highlight the importance of model resolution to appropriately represent ocean dynamics in the South Atlantic Ocean and associated impacts on regional and global climate.

Drifters designed to mimic floating marine debris and small patches of pelagic Sargassum were satellite tracked in four regions across the North Atlantic. Though subjected to the same initial conditions at each site, the tracks of different drifters quickly diverged after deployment. We explain the clustering of drifter types using a recent Maxey‐Riley theory for surface ocean inertial particle dynamics applied on multidata‐based mesoscale ocean currents and winds from reanalysis. Simulated trajectories of objects at the air‐sea interface are significantly improved when represented as inertial (accounting for buoyancy and size), rather than as perfectly Lagrangian (fluid following) particles. Separation distances between simulated and observed trajectories were substantially smaller for debris‐like drifters than for Sargassum‐like drifters, suggesting that additional consideration of its physical properties relative to fluid velocities may be useful. Our findings can be applied to model variability in movements and distribution of diverse objects floating at the ocean surface.

The subtropical South Atlantic hosts complex ocean circulation patterns and processes that transport heat to the North Atlantic, thereby playing an important role in global energy redistribution. This study uses several oceanic products to assess ocean heat changes in the subtropical South Atlantic and the associated atmosphere‐ocean processes. A particular focus is placed on the large heat deficit during 2009–2012, which is associated with cooling during 2008–2011 and subsequent warming. This heat deficit was largely driven by a sharp increase in the southward Ekman transport across 35°S during 2008–2011. The anomalous Ekman transport is connected to the persistent positive sea level pressure anomaly over the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, caused by the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific‐South American Modes. Although the overall correlations of these climate modes with the Ekman transport are modest during 1993–2016, the modes combined to produce large heat content anomalies during 2009–2012.