Sandro Steinbach

This paper explores responses to major trade policy shocks in the soybean futures market in 2025. Using an event‐study framework, we analyse short‐run movements in soybean futures prices, historical volatility, implied volatility and speculative positioning around three major policy shocks: the U.S. tariff announcement targeting China on February 1, the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2, and Argentina's temporary suspension of soybean export taxes on September 22. Broader in scope, the April reciprocal tariff package was associated with the clearest and strongest response. Futures prices fell by about 6% within two trading days, while implied volatility rose sharply. Following the February announcement, implied volatility increased immediately and then receded, while downward repricing became evident only after China's retaliatory tariffs took effect, suggesting that uncertainty rose before the implications for U.S. export demand became clearer. Argentina's export‐tax suspension, by contrast, was followed by limited repricing, a later decline in implied volatility, and greater speculative positioning relative to commercial hedging needs. The cross‐event comparison suggests that the timing and composition of market adjustment vary with the scope, directness and subsequent evolution of each policy episode.

Background: Food swamps, which have a high density of outlets selling unhealthy food relative to healthier options, are a major driver of diet-related disparities in urban communities. However, no validated food swamp measurement tools exist at the neighborhood level. Methods: We developed the Food Swamp Environment Audit Tool (FS-EAT) using community-based participatory research. FS-EAT includes 19 items as-sessing street-level food outlet types, accessibility features, food marketing, pricing, social features, and store-level information and food availability. Reliability and validity testing were performed using stakeholder surveys and feedback from the community advisory board (CAB). We compared secondary National Establishment Time Series (NETS) 2020 with FS-EAT food store data using positive predictive values and sensitivity scores. We computed Spearman's rank correlation coefficients to measure the alignment between block group-level food swamp and non-food swamp classifications, comparing FS-EAT data with NETS 2020 data. Results: Interrater reliability was strong (κ = 0.82), and 80% of stakeholders rated FS-EAT items as relevant/extremely relevant. CAB members con-firmed that FS-EAT maps aligned better with lived experiences than the secondary NETS data. GIS analyses showed that FS-EAT maps captured more accurate and timely food swamp exposure compared to NETS. When validated against the NETS 2020 business list, the FS-EAT demonstrated an overall sensitivity of 45.3% and a PPV of 68.2%. We con-firmed fewer than half of NETS-listed outlets through FS-EAT ground observation, yet more than two-thirds of audit-identified stores were also present in the NETS database. Sensitivity was highest for convenience stores (74.4%) and lowest for limited-service restaurants (29.2%). Resident perceptions were moderately correlated with FS-EAT scores (r = 0.5). While both sources agreed on the food swamp classification in 18 block groups, 15 block groups (38.5%) were classified as food swamps by the FS-EAT audit data but as non-food swamps by the NETS data. Discussion: The FS-EAT tool captures nuanced features needed to assess the level of neighborhood food swamp exposure and contributes a systematic, cost-effective way to identify neighborhood-level food swamps.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is best understood as an agricultural input shock, with the immediate risk of fertilizer affordability, especially for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Higher costs reduce application rates, weaken yields, and invite policy responses that can deepen scarcity. The urgent task is to protect access to fertilizers during the next crop cycle. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.

Recent trade policy developments have renewed concerns about the vulnerability of agri‐food markets to tariff increases. This paper quantifies the effects of 2025 US tariff hikes and potential tit‐for‐tat retaliation on agri‐food trade, prices, output, and welfare. We employ a sectoral general‐equilibrium gravity model covering 46 agri‐food industries on a 2023 baseline. The framework combines product‐level trade elasticities with sector‐specific supply elasticities based on input‐cost shares, providing a transparent mapping from tariffs to equilibrium outcomes. We simulate the April 2, 2025 (‘Liberation Day’) tariff schedule and the July 31, 2025 revisions, each with and without symmetric retaliation by all trading partners. Without retaliation, US agri‐food exports fall by 22%–25%, output declines by about 3%, the price index rises by 6.8%–7.2%, and welfare falls by 4.4%–4.9%. With retaliation, export losses deepen to 37%–43%, output drops by 4%–5%, the price index rises by 2%–5%, and welfare declines by 6.9%–7.9%. Welfare losses are highly asymmetric: Canada and Mexico experience the largest additional losses under retaliation, reflecting integrated North American supply chains, while contractions are concentrated in processed meats, soybeans, corn, and selected food products. Retaliation amplifies global welfare losses rather than offsetting them, suggesting that cooperative policy restraint yields smaller welfare costs for the United States and its major trading partners.

This paper examines the impact of Sunday blue law reforms on small-scale wineries in the United States. Using establishment-level data from 2000 to 2020, we employ an event-study framework to analyze the impact of changes in Sunday alcohol sales regulations across states on the performance of small wineries. We find that deregulation is associated with substantial declines in the performance of small wineries. On average, sales fell by 25.5%, employment declined by 7.8%, and survival rates dropped by 5.2% following the repeal of Sunday sales restrictions. These adverse effects are particularly pronounced among the smallest wineries and those located in metropolitan counties. The results suggest that while deregulation increased consumer access to alcohol on Sundays, it also intensified competition from large-scale retail outlets, thereby undermining the direct-to-consumer sales channels that are critical to small wine producers.

This paper examines the trade implications following the termination of the zero-Covid policy in China. Our event studies indicate a 9.1 percent decline in exports and an 11.5 percent reduc-tion in imports during the first quarter after the policy was revoked. While exports showed a recovery with a 13.2 percent increase in the second quarter, imports continued to be subdued at 7.5 percent. Furthermore, we observe significant heterogeneity in trade response across trading partners, products, and Chinese provinces. Regions that implemented stricter Covid policies experienced more pronounced trade contractions, whereas those that received greater economic support during the pandemic demonstrated a stronger recovery in trade. Our findings under-score the substantial economic disruptions instigated by the Covid pandemic and illustrate the resilience of international trade in the face of the cessation of the zero-Covid policy in China.

This paper examines the corporatization of veterinary medicine and its impact on independent veterinary practices in the United States using a longitudinal data set from 2000 to 2021. Results show independent practices are 1.9% more likely to exit after corporate entry, with employment and revenue dropping 5.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Urban areas experience nearly double the impact of rural ones. Event studies reveal a delayed response, with revenue effects becoming statistically significant 6 years post‐entry, reaching 18.7% in urban and 13.3% in rural areas. Co‐location benefits have diminished since 2010, highlighting rising market power and adverse competition from corporate practices.

Global governance and agricultural trade are undergoing a substantial transformation driven by geopolitical shifts, declining multilateralism and the rise of economic sanctions. This editorial synthesises contributions from a collection of invited works that examine the impacts of these changes on trade systems, food security and value chains. The collection explores how the shift from multilateralism to regionalism, the spread of sanctions and evolving governance frameworks influence agricultural trade and policy outcomes. Key themes include the resilience of agri‐food systems to disruptions, the role of trade agreements in mitigating shocks and the balance between environmental goals and trade facilitation. These studies call for a more adaptive governance framework that can safeguard agricultural trade and food systems amid rising geopolitical tensions and institutional fragmentation.

This article assesses the relationship between the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and agri‐food global value chain (GVC) integration. While the TFA aims to improve cross‐border trade by lowering trade costs, our findings suggest that higher levels of joint TFA implementation are associated with reduced agri‐food GVC flows. Only three of the 12 TFA articles have a positive relationship with agri‐food GVC integration, highlighting substantial variation in the impact of specific trade facilitation measures. Five articles show a negative association, likely reflecting the high costs of TFA implementation. Lasso regularised regressions indicate that the positive relationships observed may be confounded by joint WTO membership. These results emphasise the challenges of implementing trade facilitation measures and provide important considerations for policymakers in future trade negotiations.