Scott P. Kelly

Aims: This observational study characterized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk for multiple cancer sites, with respect to the following: (i) continuous calendar year, (ii) age at diagnosis, and (iii) follow-up time after diagnosis. Methods and results: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program was used to compare the US general population to 3 234 256 US cancer survivors (1973–2012). Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using coded cause of death from CVDs (heart disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, atherosclerosis, and aortic aneurysm/dissection). Analyses were adjusted by age, race, and sex. Among 28 cancer types, 1 228 328 patients (38.0%) died from cancer and 365 689 patients (11.3%) died from CVDs. Among CVDs, 76.3% of deaths were due to heart disease. In eight cancer sites, CVD mortality risk surpassed index-cancer mortality risk in at least one calendar year. Cardiovascular disease mortality risk was highest in survivors diagnosed at <35 years of age. Further, CVD mortality risk is highest (SMR 3.93, 95% confidence interval 3.89–3.97) within the first year after cancer diagnosis, and CVD mortality risk remains elevated throughout follow-up compared to the general population. Conclusion: The majority of deaths from CVD occur in patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, or bladder cancer. We observed that from the point of cancer diagnosis forward into survivorship cancer patients (all sites) are at elevated risk of dying from CVDs compared to the general US population. In endometrial cancer, the first year after diagnosis poses a very high risk of dying from CVDs, supporting early involvement of cardiologists in such patients.

National guidelines for aerobic physical activity recommend adults should participate in at least 150 minutes per week of moderate intensity aerobic activity or 75 minutes per week of vigorous intensity activity or an equivalent combination of both.^1-3 Levels of physical activity equivalent to meeting this guideline have been associated with substantial health benefits, including reductions in all-cause,^4,5 cardiovascular disease (CVD)–related,^4,6 and cancer-related^4,7,8 mortality. However, most of the evidence on the mortality benefits of physical activity comes from studies that measure leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) at only 1 point, usually during midlife (eg, 40-60 years of age). To date, no study to our knowledge has taken a life course approach to examine how participation in physical activity throughout the different stages of adulthood may be associated with mortality risk.

Background: Asians and Hispanics currently have the highest incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. The numbers of these minority populations are rapidly increasing, reshaping the demographic in the United States and particularly California, where approximately one-third of US Asians and Hispanics reside. With the changing demographic and rising incidence of HCC that has tripled during the past three decades, it is important to forecast the future burden of HCC by age, sex, and race/ethnicity to plan prevention and control strategies for HCC. Methods: We used four Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program registries to obtain incidence data for California during 2000 to 2013, and 14 registries to represent non-California states. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future HCC incidence rates, and estimated HCC burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. Results: Our forecasts for California suggest that in 2030 Hispanics and blacks will have the highest HCC incidence rates and Asians the lowest. While incidence among whites, blacks, and Hispanics in California increased successively for each birth year cohort from 1915 through 1955, incidence among Asians in California decreased for each successive birth year cohort from 1915 through 1975. In contrast, consistent declines were not seen among Asians in the rest of the United States. In California, the estimated burden of HCC is 6482 new cases in 2030, where 80.0% of these patients are older than 65 years (vs 44.5% in 2014). The relative increase of burden in 2030 vs 2014 for this 65 years and older age group is especially high among Hispanics (318.3%), whereas it is the lowest among Asians (53.2%) in California. Conclusions: Prevention efforts in California should target persons currently ages 50 to 64 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2030, especially among Hispanics with the most rapid increase of HCC burden through 2030.

Objectives Established prostate cancer (PCa) risk factors include age, family history of PCa and African ancestry. Studies, mostly among highly screened, predominantly European ancestral populations, suggest that employment in certain occupations (eg, farming, military) may also have an increased risk for PCa. Here, we evaluated the association between usual adult occupation and PCa risk in Ghanaian men, a population with historically low rates of PCa screening. Methods The Ghana Prostate Study is a case-control study of PCa that was conducted from 2004 to 2012 in 749 cases and 964 controls. In-person interviews were conducted to collect information from participants, including longest held job. Industrial hygienists classified job titles into occupational categories. Unconditional logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CIs for the association between longest held job and PCa risk (overall, aggressive (Gleason≥7)), controlling for potential confounders. Results Risk was increased among men in management (overall PCa OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.2; aggressive PCa OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.5) and military occupations (overall PCa OR=3.4, 95% CI 1.7 to 7.0; aggressive PCa OR=3.5, 95% CI 1.5 to 8.3). Risks were also elevated for management and military-specific jobs based on 3-digit level Standard Occupational Classification definitions. Sensitivity analyses accounting for access to medical care did not show significant differences. Conclusions Our study provides some evidence for increased risk of PCa among men in management and military occupations, which is consistent with the published literature. Additional research is needed to clarify the drivers of the associations between these occupations and PCa.

Previously we showed that adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories that result in obesity were associated with elevated risks of fatal prostate cancer (PCA). To further explore this relationship, we conducted a study within the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Among 153 730 eligible men enrolled in the NIH-AARP cohort from 1995 to 1996 (median follow-up = 15.1 years), we identified 630 fatal PCA cases and 16 896 incident cases. BMI was assessed for ages 18, 35 and 50 and at study entry, enabling examination of latent class-identified BMI trajectories. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. BMI at study entry (mean age = 63, HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.24, per 5-unit increase) and maximum BMI during adulthood (HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.02, 1.24, per 5-unit increase) shared modest associations with increased risk of fatal PCA. Smoking status likely modified the relationship between BMI trajectories and fatal PCA (P_interaction = 0.035 via change-in-estimate variable section, P = 0.065 via full a priori model). Among never-smokers, BMI trajectory of normal weight to obesity was associated with increased risk of fatal disease (HR = 2.37; 95% CI = 1.38, 4.09), compared with the maintained normal weight trajectory, whereas there was no association among former or current-smokers. Total and non-aggressive PCA exhibited modest inverse associations with BMI at all ages, whereas no association was observed for aggressive PCA. Increased BMI was positively associated with fatal PCA, especially among never-smokers. Future studies that examine PCA survival will provide additional insight as to whether these associations are the result of biology or confounding.