Charleston Noble

Recent reports have suggested that self-propagating CRISPR-based gene drive systems are unlikely to efficiently invade wild populations due to drive-resistant alleles that prevent cutting. Here we develop mathematical models based on existing empirical data to explicitly test this assumption for population alteration drives. Our models show that although resistance prevents spread to fixation in large populations, even the least effective drive systems reported to date are likely to be highly invasive. Releasing a small number of organisms will often cause invasion of the local population, followed by invasion of additional populations connected by very low rates of gene flow. Hence, initiating contained field trials as tentatively endorsed by the National Academies report on gene drive could potentially result in unintended spread to additional populations. Our mathematical results suggest that self-propagating gene drive is best suited to applications such as malaria prevention that seek to affect all wild populations of the target species.

Recent reports have suggested that CRISPR-based gene drives are unlikely to invade wild populations due to drive-resistant alleles that prevent cutting. Here we develop mathematical models based on existing empirical data to explicitly test this assumption. We show that although resistance prevents drive systems from spreading to fixation in large populations, even the least effective systems reported to date are highly invasive. Releasing a small number of organisms often causes invasion of the local population, followed by invasion of additional populations connected by very low gene flow rates. Examining the effects of mitigating factors including standing variation, inbreeding, and family size revealed that none of these prevent invasion in realistic scenarios. Highly effective drive systems are predicted to be even more invasive. Contrary to the National Academies report on gene drive, our results suggest that standard drive systems should not be developed nor field-tested in regions harboring the host organism.

An ideal gene drive system to alter wild populations would 1) exclusively affect organisms within the political boundaries of consenting communities, and 2) be capable of restoring any engineered population to its original genetic state. Here we describe ‘daisy quorum’ drive systems that meet these criteria by combining daisy drive with underdominance. A daisy quorum drive system is predicted to spread through a population until all of its daisy elements have been lost, at which point its fitness becomes frequency-dependent: mostly altered populations become fixed for the desired change, while engineered genes at low frequency are swiftly eliminated by natural selection. The result is an engineered population surrounded by wild-type organisms with limited mixing at the boundary. Releasing large numbers of wild-type organisms or a few bearing a population suppression element can reduce the engineered population below the quorum, triggering elimination of all engineered sequences. In principle, the technology can restore any drive-amenable population carrying engineered genes to wild-type genetics. Daisy quorum systems may enable efficient, community-supported, and genetically reversible ecological engineering. Summary: Local communities should be able to control their own environments without forcing those choices on others. Ideally, each community could reversibly alter local wild organisms in ways that cannot spread beyond their own boundaries, and any engineered population could be restored to its original genetic state. We've invented a 'daisy quorum' drive system that appears to meet these criteria. “Daisy” refers to a daisy drive, which typically uses a daisy-chain of linked genes to spread a change through a local population while losing links every generation until it stops spreading. “Quorum” reflects the system's ability to “vote” on whether a local population should be altered or not: once all daisy elements are lost, it favors replication by the altered version or the original depending on which is more abundant in the local area. Put together, they result in a change that first spreads through a local population, then either becomes locally prevalent is eliminating, inhibiting mixing at the boundary. All organisms in the target population are altered, but changes are unable to spread much beyond that area due to being greatly outnumbered by wild-type organisms and consequently less able to replicate. We haven't yet performed any experiments involving daisy quorum systems. Rather, we’re describing what we intend to do, including the safeguards we will use and our assessment of risks, in the hope that others will evaluate our plans and tell us if there's anything wrong that we missed. We hope that all researchers working on gene drive systems - and other technologies that could impact the shared environment - will similarly pre-register their plans. Sharing plans can reduce needless duplication, accelerate progress, and make the proposed work safer for everyone.

Methods of altering wild populations are most useful when inherently limited to local geographic areas. Here we describe a novel form of gene drive based on the introduction of multiple copies of an engineered ‘daisy’ sequence into repeated elements of the genome. Each introduced copy encodes guide RNAs that target one or more engineered loci carrying the CRISPR nuclease gene and the desired traits. When organisms encoding a drive system are released into the environment, each generation of mating with wild-type organisms will reduce the average number of the guide RNA elements per ‘daisyfield’ organism by half, serving as a generational clock. The loci encoding the nuclease and payload will exhibit drive only as long as a single copy remains, placing an inherent limit on the extent of spread.

RNA-guided gene drive elements could address many ecological problems by altering the traits of wild organisms, but the likelihood of global spread tremendously complicates ethical development and use. Here we detail a localized form of CRISPR-based gene drive composed of genetic elements arranged in a daisy-chain such that each element drives the next. “Daisy drive” systems can duplicate any effect achievable using an equivalent global drive system, but their capacity to spread is limited by the successive loss of non-driving elements from the base of the chain. Releasing daisy drive organisms constituting a small fraction of the local wild population can drive a useful genetic element to local fixation for a wide range of fitness parameters without resulting in global spread. We additionally report numerous highly active guide RNA sequences sharing minimal homology that may enable evolutionary stable daisy drive as well as global CRISPR-based gene drive. Daisy drives could simplify decision-making and promote ethical use by enabling local communities to decide whether, when, and how to alter local ecosystems. Author’s Summary: ‘Global’ gene drive systems based on CRISPR are likely to spread to every population of the target species, hampering safe and ethical use. ‘Daisy drive’ systems offer a way to alter the traits of only local populations in a temporary manner. Because they can exactly duplicate the activity of any global CRISPR-based drive at a local level, daisy drives may enable safe field trials and empower local communities to make decisions concerning their own shared environments. For more details and an animation intended for a general audience, see the summary at Sculpting Evolution .