Sean Carey
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Research Subjects
Sean Carey has a total of 1000 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Andrzej Udalski
Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw
41 shared publications - Jan Skowron
University of Warsaw
41 shared publications - Michal K. Szymanski
University of Warsaw
41 shared publications - Sebastiano Calchi Novati
12 IPAC, Caltech, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
41 shared publications - Igor Soszynski
University of Warsaw
40 shared publications - Krzysztof Ulaczyk
University of Warwick
40 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 15 September 2026
- Published by EDP Sciences in Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Vol. 713, A170
Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey
Context . The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. Aims . We investigated Roman ’s ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. Methods . We simulated a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman ’s expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required χ 2 improvement for a two-planet model, was applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Results . Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman . Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet–star mass ratios of order 10 −3 ), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations and result in detection efficiencies of roughly 90%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ( q ∼ 10 −4 ) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide–close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Conclusions . Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.1% of multiplanet microlensing events, corresponding to an upper limit of about 58 events, derived under the assumption that all simulated high-magnification binary events host an additional planet, over the course of the full survey.
- 15 September 2026
- Published by EDP Sciences in Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Vol. 713, A170
Open AccessPredictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey
Context . The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. Aims . We investigated Roman ’s ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. Methods . We simulated a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman ’s expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required χ 2 improvement for a two-planet model, was applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Results . Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman . Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet–star mass ratios of order 10 −3 ), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations and result in detection efficiencies of roughly 90%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ( q ∼ 10 −4 ) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide–close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Conclusions . Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.1% of multiplanet microlensing events, corresponding to an upper limit of about 58 events, derived under the assumption that all simulated high-magnification binary events host an additional planet, over the course of the full survey.
- Open Access
- 20 August 2026
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 172 (3) , 166
A Spitzer Space Telescope Exploration Science Program to Search for Y-dwarf Variability
We present the results of a Spitzer Space Telescope Exploration Science Program to search for and characterize variability in Y dwarfs. We observed 14 Y dwarfs over a 24 hr period at [3.6] and [4.5] and then repeated the observations a few months later. We add two Y dwarfs, WD 0806−661B and WISE J085510.83−071442.5, that were also observed with Spitzer so that our sample includes all Y dwarfs observed for variability with Spitzer. We infer variability fractions of 59% ± 15% and 64 − 13 % + 10 % for [3.6] and [4.5] in the first epoch, and 35% − 11 % + 17 % and 75% − 15 % + 8 % in the second epoch. We also find that Y dwarf Spitzer light curves are generally stable over timescales of months, but in some cases can show clear changes in amplitude. Combining our results with a similar Spitzer survey of L and T dwarfs by S. A. Metchev et al., we find the mid-infrared variability fraction of L, T, and Y dwarfs weakly supports the hypothesis that brown dwarf variability is caused by variations in the horizonal and/or vertical structure of condensate clouds.
- 20 August 2026
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 172 (3) , 166
Open AccessA Spitzer Space Telescope Exploration Science Program to Search for Y-dwarf Variability
We present the results of a Spitzer Space Telescope Exploration Science Program to search for and characterize variability in Y dwarfs. We observed 14 Y dwarfs over a 24 hr period at [3.6] and [4.5] and then repeated the observations a few months later. We add two Y dwarfs, WD 0806−661B and WISE J085510.83−071442.5, that were also observed with Spitzer so that our sample includes all Y dwarfs observed for variability with Spitzer. We infer variability fractions of 59% ± 15% and 64 − 13 % + 10 % for [3.6] and [4.5] in the first epoch, and 35% − 11 % + 17 % and 75% − 15 % + 8 % in the second epoch. We also find that Y dwarf Spitzer light curves are generally stable over timescales of months, but in some cases can show clear changes in amplitude. Combining our results with a similar Spitzer survey of L and T dwarfs by S. A. Metchev et al., we find the mid-infrared variability fraction of L, T, and Y dwarfs weakly supports the hypothesis that brown dwarf variability is caused by variations in the horizonal and/or vertical structure of condensate clouds.
- Top Cited PapersOpen Access
- 9 March 2026
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 171 (4) , 212
Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements
As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets not bound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman’s high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux and relative lens–source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS , a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3000 simulated events. Assuming the A. Cassan et al. exoplanet mass function, we find that ≥40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 σ , demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.
- 9 March 2026
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 171 (4) , 212
Top Cited PapersOpen AccessPredictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements
As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets not bound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman’s high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux and relative lens–source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS , a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3000 simulated events. Assuming the A. Cassan et al. exoplanet mass function, we find that ≥40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 σ , demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.
- Open Access
Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $χ^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.Open AccessPredictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $χ^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey. - Open Access
- 7 August 2024
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Vol. 533 (2) , 1991-2004
OGLE-2015-BLG-0845L: a low-mass M dwarf from the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects
We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0845, which was affected by both the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects. The former was detected via the simultaneous observations from the ground and Spitzer, and the latter was caused by the orbital motion of the source star in a relatively close binary. The combination of these two effects led to a mass measurement of the lens object, revealing a low-mass ($0.14 \pm 0.05 \, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$) M dwarf at the bulge distance ($7.6 \pm 1.0$ kpc). The source binary consists of a late F-type subgiant and a K-type dwarf of $\sim 1.2$ and $\sim 0.9 \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, respectively, and the orbital period is $70 \pm 10$ d. OGLE-2015-BLG-0845 is the first single-lens event in which the lens mass is measured via the binarity of the source. Given the abundance of binary systems as potential microlensing sources, the xallarap effect may not be a rare phenomenon. Our work thus highlights the application of the xallarap effect in the mass determination of microlenses, and the same method can be used to identify isolated dark lenses.- 7 August 2024
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Vol. 533 (2) , 1991-2004
Open AccessOGLE-2015-BLG-0845L: a low-mass M dwarf from the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects
We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0845, which was affected by both the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects. The former was detected via the simultaneous observations from the ground and Spitzer, and the latter was caused by the orbital motion of the source star in a relatively close binary. The combination of these two effects led to a mass measurement of the lens object, revealing a low-mass ($0.14 \pm 0.05 \, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$) M dwarf at the bulge distance ($7.6 \pm 1.0$ kpc). The source binary consists of a late F-type subgiant and a K-type dwarf of $\sim 1.2$ and $\sim 0.9 \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, respectively, and the orbital period is $70 \pm 10$ d. OGLE-2015-BLG-0845 is the first single-lens event in which the lens mass is measured via the binarity of the source. Given the abundance of binary systems as potential microlensing sources, the xallarap effect may not be a rare phenomenon. Our work thus highlights the application of the xallarap effect in the mass determination of microlenses, and the same method can be used to identify isolated dark lenses. - Open Access
- 1 February 2024
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 167 (3)
Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. X. Complete Sample of 2017 Prime-field Planets
We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover ∼13 deg2. We report three unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the three unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a Spitzer microlens parallax measurement, π E ≃ 0.045 ± 0.015, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios q and normalized projected separations s of ( log q , s ) = ( − 2.31 , 0.61 ) , (−2.06, 0.63/1.09), (−2.10, 1.04), and (−2.86, 0.72). Combined with previously published events, the 2017 prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured q and one very likely candidate, of which three are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in q.
- 1 February 2024
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Astronomical Journal
- Vol. 167 (3)
Open AccessSystematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. X. Complete Sample of 2017 Prime-field Planets
We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover ∼13 deg2. We report three unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the three unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a Spitzer microlens parallax measurement, π E ≃ 0.045 ± 0.015, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios q and normalized projected separations s of ( log q , s ) = ( − 2.31 , 0.61 ) , (−2.06, 0.63/1.09), (−2.10, 1.04), and (−2.86, 0.72). Combined with previously published events, the 2017 prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured q and one very likely candidate, of which three are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in q.
- Open Access
- 1 December 2023
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Planetary Science Journal
- Vol. 4 (12) , 224
The Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission is a NASA Observatory designed to discover and characterize asteroids and comets. The mission’s primary objective is to find the majority of objects large enough to cause severe regional impact damage (>140 m in effective spherical diameter) within its 5 yr baseline survey. Operating at the Sun–Earth L1 Lagrange point, the mission will survey to within 45° of the Sun in an effort to find objects in the most Earth-like orbits. The survey cadence is optimized to provide observational arcs long enough to distinguish near-Earth objects from more distant small bodies that cannot pose an impact hazard reliably. Over the course of its survey, NEO Surveyor will discover ∼200,000–300,000 new NEOs down to sizes as small as ∼10 m and thousands of comets, significantly improving our understanding of the probability of an Earth impact over the next century.
- 1 December 2023
- Published by American Astronomical Society in The Planetary Science Journal
- Vol. 4 (12) , 224
Open AccessThe Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission is a NASA Observatory designed to discover and characterize asteroids and comets. The mission’s primary objective is to find the majority of objects large enough to cause severe regional impact damage (>140 m in effective spherical diameter) within its 5 yr baseline survey. Operating at the Sun–Earth L1 Lagrange point, the mission will survey to within 45° of the Sun in an effort to find objects in the most Earth-like orbits. The survey cadence is optimized to provide observational arcs long enough to distinguish near-Earth objects from more distant small bodies that cannot pose an impact hazard reliably. Over the course of its survey, NEO Surveyor will discover ∼200,000–300,000 new NEOs down to sizes as small as ∼10 m and thousands of comets, significantly improving our understanding of the probability of an Earth impact over the next century.
- Open Access
The Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission is a NASA observatory designed to discover and characterize near-Earth asteroids and comets. The mission's primary objective is to find the majority of objects large enough to cause severe regional impact damage ($>$140 m in effective spherical diameter) within its five-year baseline survey. Operating at the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, the mission will survey to within 45 degrees of the Sun in an effort to find the objects in the most Earth-like orbits. The survey cadence is optimized to provide observational arcs long enough to reliably distinguish near-Earth objects from more distant small bodies that cannot pose an impact hazard. Over the course of its survey, NEO Surveyor will discover $\sim$200,000 - 300,000 new NEOs down to sizes as small as $\sim$10 m and thousands of comets, significantly improving our understanding of the probability of an Earth impact over the next century.
Open AccessThe Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission is a NASA observatory designed to discover and characterize near-Earth asteroids and comets. The mission's primary objective is to find the majority of objects large enough to cause severe regional impact damage ($>$140 m in effective spherical diameter) within its five-year baseline survey. Operating at the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, the mission will survey to within 45 degrees of the Sun in an effort to find the objects in the most Earth-like orbits. The survey cadence is optimized to provide observational arcs long enough to reliably distinguish near-Earth objects from more distant small bodies that cannot pose an impact hazard. Over the course of its survey, NEO Surveyor will discover $\sim$200,000 - 300,000 new NEOs down to sizes as small as $\sim$10 m and thousands of comets, significantly improving our understanding of the probability of an Earth impact over the next century.
- Open Access
Upgraded Thoth: Software for Data Visualization and Statistics
Thoth is a free desktop/laptop software application with a friendly graphical user interface that facilitates routine data-visualization and statistical-calculation tasks for astronomy and astrophysical research (and other fields where numbers are visualized). This software has been upgraded with many significant improvements and new capabilities. The major upgrades consist of: (1) six new graph types, including 3D stacked-bar charts and 3D surface plots, made by the Orson 3D Charts library; (2) new saving and loading of graph settings; (3) a new batch-mode or command-line operation; (4) new graph-data annotation functions; (5) new options for data-file importation; and (6) a new built-in FITS-image viewer. There is now the requirement that Thoth be run under Java 1.8 or higher. Many other miscellaneous minor upgrades and bug fixes have also been made to Thoth. The newly implemented plotting options generally make possible graph construction and reuse with relative ease, without resorting to writing computer code. The illustrative astronomy case study of this paper demonstrates one of the many ways the software can be utilized. These new software features and refinements help make astronomers more efficient in their work of elucidating data.
Open AccessUpgraded Thoth: Software for Data Visualization and Statistics
Thoth is a free desktop/laptop software application with a friendly graphical user interface that facilitates routine data-visualization and statistical-calculation tasks for astronomy and astrophysical research (and other fields where numbers are visualized). This software has been upgraded with many significant improvements and new capabilities. The major upgrades consist of: (1) six new graph types, including 3D stacked-bar charts and 3D surface plots, made by the Orson 3D Charts library; (2) new saving and loading of graph settings; (3) a new batch-mode or command-line operation; (4) new graph-data annotation functions; (5) new options for data-file importation; and (6) a new built-in FITS-image viewer. There is now the requirement that Thoth be run under Java 1.8 or higher. Many other miscellaneous minor upgrades and bug fixes have also been made to Thoth. The newly implemented plotting options generally make possible graph construction and reuse with relative ease, without resorting to writing computer code. The illustrative astronomy case study of this paper demonstrates one of the many ways the software can be utilized. These new software features and refinements help make astronomers more efficient in their work of elucidating data.
- Open Access
OGLE-2017-BLG-1038: A Possible Brown-dwarf Binary Revealed by Spitzer Microlensing Parallax
We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope.Open AccessOGLE-2017-BLG-1038: A Possible Brown-dwarf Binary Revealed by Spitzer Microlensing Parallax
We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope.