Anna F. V. Pintor

Snakes play pivotal roles in many ecosystems. While some species, including medically important ones, are considered threatened by the IUCN, snakebite takes a heavy toll on rural agricultural populations in the developing world. Approximately 138,000 deaths and 400,000 disabilities result from snakebite annually and WHO has pledged to reduce the resulting health burden by 50% by 2030. Among a plethora of reasons for insufficient snakebite mitigation, one is limited explicit knowledge of how, where, and when humans and snakes interact, which limits the timely, accurate, and efficient deployment of resources. Here, we revise the list of medically important snakes based on recent taxonomic updates and use high-resolution data from a broad range of published and unpublished resources to compare expert-derived ranges with statistical geographical models of habitat suitability for all 508 most medically important snake species globally. Our study is the first to model every single medically important snake species including data deficient ones, at the highest resolution to date, and with the largest supporting occurrence dataset. We generate geographically explicit estimates of how much human and snake populations overlap (snake-human-overlap-index; SHOI), which is the most fundamental prerequisite for human-snake conflict to occur. Finally, we model the effects of climate change on snake distributions. We predict substantial, short- and long-term shifts in snake distributions, including range contractions for many threatened species and increased human exposure to species of major public health concern. In combination with other drivers of increased snake-human conflict, such as human behaviours and snake traits, our predictions can be used to decide where to stockpile which antivenom, how to ensure adequate capacity of individual health facilities, how to improve health care accessibility of remote at-risk communities, and where to focus conservation efforts for threatened snake species. Hence, we highlight the need for geographically targeted efforts to benefit both vulnerable human and snake populations, as part of a One-Health strategy.

Invasive species have established populations around the world and, in the process, characteristics of their realized environmental niches have changed. Because of their popularity as a source of game, deer have been introduced to, and become invasive in, many different environments around the world. As such, deer should provide a good model system in which to test environmental niche shifts. Using the current distributions of the six deer species present in Australia, we quantified shifts in their environmental niches that occurred since introduction; we determined the differences in suitable habitat between their international (native and invaded) and their Australian ranges. Given knowledge of their Australian habitat use, we then modeled the present distribution of deer in Australia to assess habitat suitability, in an attempt to predict future deer distributions. We show that the Australian niches of hog (Axis porcinus), fallow (Dama dama), red (Cervus elaphus), rusa (C. timorensis), and sambar deer (C. unicolor), but not chital deer (A. axis), were different to their international ranges. When we quantified the potential range of these six species in Australia, chital, hog, and rusa deer had the largest areas of suitable habitat outside their presently occupied habitat. The other three species had already expanded outside the ranges that we predicted as suitable. Here, we demonstrate that deer have undergone significant environmental niche shifts following introduction into Australia, and these shifts are important for predicting the future spread of these invasive species. It is important to note that current Australian and international environmental niches did not necessarily predict range expansions, thus wildlife managers should treat these analyses as conservative estimates.