Susan Wijffels

During recent decades, both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) drove major changes in the Earth's energy imbalance. However, their respective fingerprints in changes to ocean heat content (OHC) have been difficult to isolate and detect when global or hemispheric averages are used. Based on a pattern recognition analysis, we show that AAs drive an interhemispheric asymmetry within the 20°‐35° latitude band in historical OHC change due to the southward shift of the atmospheric and ocean circulation system. This forced pattern is distinct from the GHG‐induced pattern, which dominates the asymmetry in higher latitudes. Moreover, it is found that this significant aerosol‐forced OHC trend pattern can only be captured in analyzed periods of 20 years or longer and including 1975–1990. Using these distinct spatiotemporal characteristics, we show that the fingerprint of aerosol climate forcing in ocean observations can be distinguished from both the stronger GHG‐induced signals and internal variability.

The Global Ocean Biogeochemistry (GO-BGC) array is a 5-year effort funded by the US National Science Foundation to produce and deploy 500 profiling floats equipped with biogeochemical sensors in the world ocean. Deployments began in the first quarter of 2021. To inform and engage a broad oceanographic user community, the Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry (OCB) and the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Programs worked with GO-BGC leadership to host a virtual GO-BGC Scientific Workshop from June 28-30, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were to: • Introduce the GO-BGC plan to the global scientific community • Discuss and innovate on scientific applications of GO-BGC data • Provide background information on the flow of data and archiving • Deliver hands-on tutorials and computer code for accessing GO-BGC data Presentations and discussions were scheduled for 3-4 hours on each day using the Zoom platform. Some pre-recorded presentations were available online prior to each day’s events, so that participants could consider discussion items before the meeting. A Slack channel was also created prior to the meeting so that participants could communicate with organizers, presenters, and other attendees during the event.

Separating the climate response to external forcing from internal climate variability is a key challenge. While most previous studies have focused on surface responses, here we examine zonal‐mean patterns of North Pacific subsurface temperature responses. In particular, the changes since 1950 driven by anthropogenic aerosol emissions are found by using a pattern recognition method. Based on the single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations from two models, we show that aerosol forcing caused a nonmonotonic temporal response and a characteristic zonal‐mean pattern within North Pacific, which is distinct from the pattern associated with internal variability. The aerosol‐forced pattern with the nonmonotonic temporal feature shows a substantial temperature change in subpolar regions and a reversed change on the southern flank of the subtropical gyre. A similar characteristic pattern and nonmonotonic time evolution are extracted from the subsurface observations, which likely reflect the subsurface responses to the aerosol forcing, although differences exist with the simulated responses.

The tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected via a complex system of currents known as the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). More than 30% of the variability in the ITF is linked to the seasonal cycle, influenced by the Monsoon winds. Despite previous efforts, a detailed knowledge of the ITF response to the components of the seasonal forcing is still lacking. Here, we describe the seasonal cycle of the ITF based on new observations of velocity and properties in Timor Passage, satellite altimetry and a high‐resolution regional model. These new observations reveal a complex mean and seasonally varying flow field. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle in volume transport is approximately 6 Sv. The timing of the seasonal cycle, with semi‐annual maxima (minima) in May and December (February and September), is controlled by the flow below 600 m associated with semi‐annual Kelvin waves. The transport of thermocline waters (<300 m) is less variable than the deep flow but larger in magnitude. This top layer is modulated remotely by cycles of divergence in the Banda Sea, and locally through Ekman transport, coastal upwelling, and non‐linearities of the flow. The latter manifests through the formation of eddies that reduce the throughflow during the Southeast Monsoon, when is expected to be maximum. While the reduction in transport associated with the eddies is small, its impact on heat transport is large. These non‐linear dynamics develop over small scales (<10 km), and without high enough resolution, both observations and models will fail to capture them adequately.

Six ALAMO floats are deployed within the tropical warm pool of the eastern Indian Ocean, to study the thermal stratification in the diurnal warm layer (DWL) during strong diurnal SST variation (DV SST) prior to the onset of Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO). Strong DV SST of > 2 °C is measured by four floats before the passage of a MJO event (i.e., during the suppressed phase), when the peak insolation > 1000 W m ^-2 and the wind speed < 3 m s ^-1 . Even after the occurrence of daytime peak SST, the temperature gradient in the DWL can still extend to > 10 m until the midnight, which may be driven by the turbulent mixing at the base of DWL. Interestingly, the foundation SST (SST _fnd ) at three floats increases rapidly from 26.4 °C to > 27.6 °C over two days, coincident with the shoaling of surface mixed layer depth (MLD) by more than 20 m. The strongly stratified near surface layer may sustain higher SSTs and enhance air-sea heat fluxes until the onset of stronger winds. The KPP mixing scheme used in a 1-D model can simulate the observed DV SST magnitude reliably, but fail to predict the rapid increase of SST _fnd . The magnitude of DV SST is affected by the near surface stratification, but the SST _fnd is modulated by the evolution of stratification above the MLD. Future field measurements in the upper ocean during diurnal warming are proposed to help improve air-sea flux simulations and the forecast of MJOs.

The ocean provides critical services to life on the planet, absorbing 93% of the heat from anthropogenic warming and a quarter of human carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions each year. However, rising ocean temperatures and CO2 levels also change the marine environment: pH and oxygen levels fall, ocean currents change, and nutrient fluxes and concentrations are shifting, all with large effects on ecosystems and the cycles of oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon throughout the ocean and atmosphere. Observing these biogeochemical (BGC) processes across remote ocean areas with seasonal to interannual resolution has been impractical due to the prohibitive costs associated with ship observations. Yet such observations are essential to understand the natural and perturbed systems.Profiling floats, proven in the Argo program, with BGC sensors (oxygen, nitrate, pH, bio-optical) provide a transformative solution to this need.  BGC profiling floats are capable of observing chemical and biological properties from 2000 m depth to the surface every 10 days for many years. Based on various OSSE and sampling approaches, global coverage can be achieved with 1000 BGC floats contributing to the core T/S Argo array of about 4000.The U.S. Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) program serves as a major basin-scale pilot for such a global array. Its 141 operating BGC floats, building towards an ultimate 200 floats, demonstrate that the major challenges associated with operating a large-scale, robotic network have been overcome, and that there is a substantial user base for the data. Data have been publicly available in near real-time since the start of SOCCOM. Robust protocols for QC, calibration and validation of BGC float data have been developed, based on GLODAPv2 climatologies and relationships between the observed float variables. Data are being incorporated in BGC state estimation and are being used for comparison/validation of ocean models used for climate. Initial SOCCOM results are already transforming understanding of Southern Ocean biogeochemistry. Annual cycles of air-sea carbon flux are revealing major surprises, including strong outgassing within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.  Annual net community production in all major regimes of the Southern Ocean has been quantified.  The broad-scale float profiling has validated NASA's satellite algorithms for POC and chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean. As the international community moves forward towards sustained BGC-Argo deployments, SOCCOM can provide its experience in sensors, floats, deployments, calibration, and data management. 

Corrigendum: Detecting Change in the Indonesian Seas

Considerable advances in the global ocean observing system over the last two decades offers an opportunity to provide more quantitative information on changes in heat and freshwater storage. Variations in these storage terms can arise through internal variability and also the response of the ocean to anthropogenic climate change. Disentangling these competing influences on the regional patterns of change and elucidating their governing processes remains an outstanding scientific challenge. This challenge is compounded by instrumental and sampling uncertainties. The combined use of ocean observations and model simulations is the most viable method to assess the forced signal from noise and ascertain the primary drivers of variability and change. Moreover, this approach offers the potential for improved seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the possibility to develop powerful multi-variate constraints on climate model future projections. Regional heat storage changes dominate the steric contribution to sea level rise over most of the ocean and are vital to understanding both global and regional heat budgets. Variations in regional freshwater storage are particularly relevant to our understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle and can potentially be used to verify local ocean mass addition from terrestrial and cryospheric systems associated with contemporary sea level rise. This White Paper will examine the ability of the current ocean observing system to quantify changes in regional heat and freshwater storage. In particular we will seek to answer the question: What time and space scales are currently resolved in different regions of the global oceans? In light of some of the key scientific questions, we will discuss the requirements for measurement accuracy, sampling, and coverage as well as the synergies that can be leveraged by more comprehensively analysing the multi-variable arrays provided by the integrated observing system.