Samsul Anwar

Siklon tropis merupakan badai yang memiliki dampak merusak bagi wilayah yang dilintasinya dan memberikan dampak buruk bagi wilayah disekitarannya. Secara geografis, Indonesia terletak pada perbatasan dengan wilayah pembentukan dan area lintasan siklon tropis sehingga siklon tropis yang terjadi di sekitar wilayah Indonesia akan berdampak terhadap kondisi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan distribusi probabilitas yang sesuai terhadap data, mengidentifikasi karakteristik kecenderungan lama waktu berakhirnya siklon tropis, dan membandingkan perilaku siklus hidup siklon tropis berdasarkan wilayah Pasifik Utara dan Pasifik Selatan serta tahun kejadiannya. Analisis probabilitas hyperparameter (3 dan 4) digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis pada wilayah Pasifik Selatan cenderung lebih cepat berakhir dibandingkan pada wilayah Pasifik Utara. Analisis lebih lanjut menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis di wilayah Pasifik Selatan berpotensi berakhir pada waktu sekitar 3 hari, sedangkan siklon tropis di wilayah Pasifik Utara cenderung berakhir pada waktu sekitar 5 hari hingga 1 minggu. Berdasarkan tahun kejadian pada kedua wilayah menunjukkan bahwa siklus hidup siklon tropis sebelum tahun 2000 cenderung semakin lama berakhir seiring bertambahnya periode, namun setelah tahun 2000 terlihat siklon tropis cenderung semakin cepat berakhir dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya. Penelitian ini dapat menjadi salah satu indikator peringatan dini dalam mitigasi bencana siklon tropis di Indonesia.

Introduction: Social distancing and wearing a face mask are highly recommended to mitigate the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the success of these strategies relies on individuals’ adherence and public compliance. This study was conducted to assess the level of belief in social distancing and face mask practices in communities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to identify their possible determinants. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in ten LMICs countries in Asia, Africa, and South America from February to May 2021. A questionnaire was used to assess the belief, practice, and their plausible determinants. Identification of the associated determinants was performed using a logistic regression model. Results: Our data revealed that only 62.6% and 66.9% of the participants had good beliefs in social distancing and good face mask practices, respectively. Residing in the Americas, having a healthcare-related job, knowing people in immediate social environment who are or have been infected and exposure to information of COVID-19 cases on social media or TV were factors significantly associated with good belief in social distancing. Residing country, gender, monthly household income, type of job and exposure to information of COVID-19 cases were significantly associated with face mask wearing practice. Conclusion: The proportion of participants having good beliefs in social distancing and good face mask practices is relatively low (<75%). Hence, sustained health campaigns regarding social distancing benefits and face mask-wearing practices during COVID-19 are critical in LMICs.

Latar belakang: Salah satu masalah lingkungan yang timbul akibat semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk yang disertai dengan perubahan pola hidup di Daerah Khusus Jakarta (DKJ) adalah pengelolaan sampah yang semakin kompleks dengan kuantitas yang mencapai 7.000 ton/harinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan tonase sampah yang mungkin dihasilkan pada masa yang akan datang sebagai salah satu upaya awal dalam membantu proses penyusunan rencana pengelolaan sampah yang lebih baik.Metode: Penelitian ini menganalisis data tonase sampah bulanan yang masuk ke TPST Bantargebang yang diperoleh dari website Jakarta Open Data. Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan statistika deskriptif dan inferensia dengan menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) dan Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA).Hasil: Peramalan dengan metode terbaik menunjukkan bahwa tonase sampah yang masuk ke TPST Batargebang diprediksi akan semakin tinggi setiap tahunnya terutama pada bulan Desember dan Januari. Tonase sampah pada bulan Desember tahun 2026 diprediksi mencapai 293.317,5 ton, jauh meningkat dari hasil prediksi pada bulan Desember tahun 2021 yang hanya mencapai 254.113,3 ton. Simpulan: Hasil peramalan tonase sampah pada penelitian ini dapat menjadi salah satu acuan dalam upaya penanganan sampah di DKJ. Pemerintah DKJ bersama seluruh komponen masyarakat perlu bekerjasama dalam mengantisipasi lonjakan sampah tersebut dengan melakukan berbagai upaya yang dapat menekan laju peningkatan tonase sampah di Jakarta dan sekitarnya. Pemerintah DKJ direkomendasikan untuk memperbaiki sistem pengelolaan sampah, baik di tingkat masyarakat maupun di TPST Batargebang dengan mengeluarkan regulasi/aturan pengelolaan sampah yang lebih efektif, menambah anggaran pengelolaan sampah dan melakukan sosialisasi serta pembinaan terutama bagi masyarakat yang tinggal di wilayah padat penduduk. ABSTRACT Forecasting Waste Tonnage at TPST Bantargebang as an Initial Effort to Handle Waste Problems in Special Region of JakartaBackground: One of the environmental problems arising from the increasing population accompanied by changes in lifestyle in the Special Region of Jakarta (DKJ) is increasingly complex waste management with quantities reaching 7,000 tons per day. This study aims to forecast the tonnage of waste that may be generated in the future as one of the initial efforts in helping the process of preparing a better waste management plan .Method: This study analyzes monthly waste tonnage data entering TPST Bantargebang obtained from the Jakarta Open Data website. The data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) methods..Result: Forecasting with the best method shows that the tonnage of waste entering TPST Batargebang is predicted to be higher every year, especially in December and January. The waste tonnage in December 2026 is predicted to reach 293,317.5 tons, a far increase from the prediction results in December 2021 which only reached 254,113.3 tons. Conclusion: The results of forecasting the tonnage of waste in this study can be one of the references in waste management efforts in DKJ. The DKJ government together with all components of society need to work together in anticipating the surge in waste by making various efforts that can reduce the rate of increase in waste tonnage in Jakarta and its surroundings. The DKJ government is recommended to improve the waste management system, both at the community level and at TPST Batargebang by issuing more effective waste management regulations, increasing the waste management budget and conducting socialization and guidance, especially for people living in densely populated areas. ABSTRACT Forecasting Waste Tonnage at TPST Bantargebang as an Initial Effort to Handle Waste Problems in Special Region of JakartaBackground: One of the environmental problems arising from the increasing population accompanied by changes in lifestyle in the Special Region of Jakarta (DKJ) is increasingly complex waste management with quantities reaching 6,500 to 7,000 tons per day. This study aims to forecast the tonnage of waste that may be generated in the future as one of the initial efforts in helping the process of preparing a better waste management plan .Method: This study analyzes monthly waste tonnage data entering TPST Bantargebang obtained from the Jakarta Open Data website. The data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) methods..Result: Forecasting with the best method shows that the tonnage of waste entering TPST Batargebang is predicted to be higher every year, especially in December and January. The waste tonnage in December 2026 is predicted to reach 293,317.5 tons, a far increase from the prediction results in the same month for 2021 which only reached 254,113.3 tons. Conclusion: The results of forecasting the tonnage of waste entering the TPST Batargebang in this study can be one of the references in waste management efforts in DKJ. The DKJ government together with all components of society need to work together in anticipating the surge in waste by making various efforts that can reduce the rate of increase in waste tonnage in Jakarta and its surroundings. The DKJ government is recommended to improve the waste management system, both at the community level and at TPST Batargebang by issuing more effective waste management regulations, increasing the waste management budget and conducting socialization and guidance, especially for people living in densely populated areas.

Perbandingan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing dan ARFIMA pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika

Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim terhadap Siklus Kejadian Siklon Tropis di Pasifik Selatan dan Utara

The waning immunity following the COVID-19 vaccination become a significant concern and the immunological dynamics of vaccine-induced antibodies after vaccination need to be explored. The aim of this study was to compare anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibody levels before and after a booster dose with heterologous COVID-19 vaccine and to identify factors influencing the levels after receiving the booster dose. A cross-sectional study was conducted in which individuals who received primary doses of CoronaVac and a booster dose with an mRNA-based vaccine were recruited using a purposive sampling technique. The titers of anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibodies were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and plausible associated factors were collected using a questionnaire-assisted face-to-face interview. The Wilcoxon test was used to compare the titers before and after the booster dose, while the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests, followed by multivariate linear regression, were used to assess the factors associated with RBD total antibody titers. The results showed that there was a significant increase of anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD total antibody titers before and after receiving the booster dose (1,558.7 BAU/mL vs 140.6 BAU/mL, p<0.001). The analysis revealed that age (p=0.555), sex (p=0.254), type of vaccine (p=0.914), presence of hypertension (p=0.541), diabetes (p=0.975), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, p=0.620), and gout (p=0.364) were not associated with anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD total antibody titers. However, the titers of anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD total antibody were significantly different between those with and without hyperlipidemia (p=0.021). This study suggests that a booster dose with a heterologous COVID-19 vaccine could significantly enhance immune responses against COVID-19, and therefore, this strategy may be recommended as part of preventive measures to strengthen immunity against COVID-19.

Cooperatives are an important aspect in encouraging economic and financial development in Indonesia, including in North Sumatra Province. Therefore, appropriate cooperative development strategies and efforts are needed to support cooperative development in the region. This research aims to group districts/cities in the North Sumatra province based on the 5 existing types of cooperatives, namely consumer, producer, savings and loan, service and marketing cooperatives. This research uses secondary data obtained from the Department of Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises of North Sumatra Province with a total of 5,192 cooperatives. Data were analyzed using the K-means clustering method. The research results show that Medan City as the provincial capital is the region with the most types of cooperatives. Meanwhile, areas far from the provincial capital, like Nias Island, have relatively few cooperatives. The North Sumatra Provincial Government together with the district/city governments need to pay more attention to areas with a minimal number of cooperatives so that the level of community welfare in these areas increases through developing the quantity and quality of cooperatives in the region.

Background: Some Ebola vaccines have been developed and tested in phase III clinical trials. However, assessment of whether public have willingness to purchase or not, especially in unaffected areas, is lacking. The aim of this study was to determine willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical Ebola vaccine in Indonesia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from 1 August to 30 December 2015 in five cities in Aceh province of Indonesia. Patients’ family members who visited outpatient departments were approached and interviewed about their sociodemographic characteristics, knowledge of Ebola, attitude towards vaccination practice and their WTP for a hypothetical Ebola vaccine. A multivariable linear regression model assessed the relationship between these explanatory variables and WTP. Results: During the study, 500 participants were approached and interviewed. There were 424 (84.8%) respondents who completed the interview and 74% (311/424) expressed their acceptance for an Ebola vaccine. There were 288 participants who were willing to pay for an Ebola vaccine (92.6% out of 311). The mean of WTP was US$2.08 (95% CI: 1.75-2.42). The final multivariable model indicated that young age, high educational attainment, working as a private employee, entrepreneur or civil servant (compared to farmers), being unmarried, and residing in a suburb (compared to a city) were associated with higher WTP. Conclusions: Although the proportion of the participants who would accept the Ebola vaccine was relatively high, the amount they were willing to pay for Ebola vaccine was very low. This finding would indicate the need of subsidies for Ebola vaccine in the country.