Philip J. Cook

In the United States, the legal status of the 30 to 40 million annual firearms transactions is defined by state and federal regulations. These regulations primarily aim to reduce criminal misuse while preserving access for the large majority of adults who lack a serious criminal record or are otherwise proscribed from possession. Illegal firearms transactions are embedded in the “formal market”—sales, mostly of new guns, by licensed retail dealers required to screen purchasers and maintain records—and the “informal market,” where any of the 80 million gun owners may act as a source. A growing fraction of illegal transactions involve privately made firearms, fabricated from commercial kits or additive manufacturing techniques. The firearms used by proscribed people are diverted from the legal supply chain, in some cases by professional intermediaries (thieves, straw purchasers, scofflaw dealers, home fabricators). Subsequent redistribution may involve professional brokers and traffickers. Most such enterprises are small in scale, with organized criminal groups serving primarily as customers rather than distributors. Compared with the drug trade, the illegal gun market is smaller and more exposed to law enforcement. For proscribed buyers, transaction costs are highly differentiated, varying based on the local prevalence of guns, state regulations and enforcement, and individual connections. While preventing dangerous people from obtaining guns is intrinsically difficult in a regime designed for broad accessibility to most adults, regulations can substantially affect illegal commerce, and some regulations reduce criminal use.

Justifying a proposed government regulation intended to reduce firearm violence requires a conceptually sound estimate of the monetized value of that impact and how that value is distributed across the population. Some previous estimates do not serve as a valid basis for policy evaluation or are out of date. A nationally representative survey was conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in August 2022 (n = 660). The authors designed and added a series of contingent-valuation items to the questionnaire. Double-bounded estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) were derived from a regression analysis of responses regarding voting on a hypothetical referendum on a state-wide package of measures designed to reduce gun violence at specified cost to taxpayers. Average WTP for a reduction of 20% in the state rate of gun violence was $744 per household (IQR:$668–$928), implying a national total of $97.6 billion. Household WTP was positively associated with household income, the respondent’s assessment of the seriousness of gun violence in their community and the subjective likelihood that they would become a victim of gun violence. A variety of tests support the claim that this application of the contingent-valuation method provided valid results. WTP is the recognized basis for assessing the value of proposed federal regulations. The estimated WTP for reducing gun violence is about twice as high as a recent cost-of-injury estimate and provides a much different picture of the incidence of costs by income and demographic characteristics.

For a paper that has not yet been through peer review or even been formally published, William English’s “2021 National Firearms Survey” has been remarkably prominent in gun rights advocacy and scholarship. As of December 2024, it has been cited in roughly sixty-five briefs, invoked at oral argument in the Supreme Court and multiple courts of appeals, and regularly cited in public writings and published academic work. This response is offered in the spirit of a peer review. Our focus is on methodological issues, questionable statistical results, and problematic conclusions. Because of serious methodological issues, English’s draft fails to provide a reliable estimate of the number of annual defensive gun uses, the stock of AR-15s, or the actual protective value of or frequency with which AR-15 type firearms have been used. The paper should not be used as an authoritative source. This version of our paper has been updated to account for the response that Prof. English posted on October 23, 2024.

Accurate data on the nature of firearm injuries are essential for crafting effective policies for prevention but are currently lacking. It has been established

This Viewpoint discusses the history and current status of assault weapons bans in the US, provides evidence of the potential effectiveness of a US ban and information regarding the Australian ban, and explores potential next steps.

Firearm injury among youths is a public health problem that presents differently in rural and metropolitan (urban) areas. Ellyson and colleagues focus on handgu

Significance: Public health agencies worldwide have determined that there is no safe level for children’s exposure to lead, a neurotoxin. This study shows that lead in drinking water from private wells is significantly associated with juvenile delinquency. Compared to children in homes with public water supplies, those relying on private wells have a 21% higher risk of any delinquency and a 38% increased risk of serious delinquency. The steepest increases in risk occur at the lowest exposure levels. The results highlight the need to prevent lead-leaching from well components, plumbing, and fixtures in the 13% of US households relying on private wells. They also suggest the need to decrease blood and environmental lead thresholds currently used to identify at-risk children.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to describe the creation, implementation, activities and rationale for the Area Technology Centers (ATCs), an innovation adopted by the Chicago Police Department’s (CPD’s) Bureau of Detectives (BoD) in 2019 for the purpose of supporting investigations of crimes of serious violence by deploying specialized teams of officers to gather and process video and digital evidence.Design/methodology/approach: This case study utilizes historical information and descriptive data generated by a record-keeping system adopted by the ATCs.Findings: The ATCs were developed as a collaboration between the CPD and the University of Chicago Crime Lab (a research center). The start-up was funded by a gift from the Griffin Foundation. Detectives have made extensive use of the services provided by the ATCs from the beginning, with the result that homicide and shooting investigations now have access to more video and digital evidence that has been processed by state-of-the-art equipment. The CPD has assumed budget responsibility for the ATCs, which is an indication of their success. The ATC teams have been assembled by voluntary transfers by sworn officers, together with an embedded analyst from the University of Chicago.Practical implications: The ATC model could be adopted by other large police departments. The study finds that ATCs can be effectively staffed by redeploying and training existing staff and that their operation does not require a budget increase.Social implications: By arguably making police investigations of shooting cases more efficient, the ATCs have the potential to increase the clearance rate and thereby prevent future gun violence.Originality/value: The ATCs are a novel response to the challenges of securing and making good use of video and digital evidence in police investigations.