Lisha Luo

Background: This study analyzes the global burden of breast cancer (BC) over the past 30 years, identifies key risk factors, and projects future incidence and mortality through 2050.Methods: Data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends, and country development was measured using the Socio‐Demographic Index (SDI). Projections were conducted using Bayesian age‐period‐cohort and autoregressive integrated moving average models.Results: In 2021, approximately 2.12 million new breast cancer cases and 674 199 deaths were recorded globally. From 1990 to 2021, incidence and prevalence increased, while mortality and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) declined overall. Regional and national variations were observed, alongside age and gender differences in the disease burden. A diet high in red meat and a high body mass index were the leading global risk factors for breast cancer deaths. The BC burden was positively correlated with SDI across 21 GBD regions. Decomposition analysis highlighted demographic factors as the main drivers of increased disease burden over the past three decades. Projections indicate that BC incidence will continue to rise through 2050.Conclusions: While global BC mortality has decreased over the past 30 years, incidence continues to rise. Low‐SDI regions face increasing challenges, as incidence, mortality, and DALYs persistently climb. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies and equitable resource distribution to mitigate the rising burden of breast cancer.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neoplasms are leading causes of mortality worldwide. Objective: This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mortality burden and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to CVDs and neoplasms in Western Europe, investigate associated risk factors, and identify regional disparities. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in promoting healthier lives in the region. Methods: The study collected data on mortality and DALYs due to CVDs and cancers from 24 Western European countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The analysis explored age, sex, and country-specific patterns, as well as risk factors contributing to these deaths. Additionally, the study examined time trends by calculating the annual percent change in mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 by region and cause. Results: In 2021, CVDs and neoplasms accounted for 27.8% and 27.1% of total deaths in Western Europe, with age-standardized death rates of 106.8 and 125.8 per 100,000, respectively. The top two CVDs in this region were ischemic heart disease and stroke, with age-standardized death rates of 47.27 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 50.42-41.45) and 27.06 (95% UI 29.17-23.00), respectively. Similarly, the top two neoplasms were lung cancer and colorectal cancer, with age-standardized death rates of 26.4 (95% UI 27.69-24.47) and 15.1 (95% UI 16.25-13.53), respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, CVD mortality rates decreased by 61.9%, while cancer rates decreased by 28.27%. Finland had the highest CVD burden (39.5%), and Monaco had the highest rate of cancer-related deaths (34.8%). Gender differences were observed, with males experiencing a higher burden of both CVDs and cancer. Older individuals were also more at risk. Smoking had a stronger impact on CVD mortality and DALYs in males, while a higher Human Development Index was associated with increased cancer deaths and DALYs in females. Conclusions: The study findings highlight the substantial burden of NCDs, particularly CVDs and cancer, in Western Europe. This underscores the critical need for targeted interventions and effective implementation of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs to achieve the goal of ensuring healthy lives for all.

Background: This study aims to analyze breast cancer burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Deaths and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) were used for attributable burden, and age‐period‐cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort.Results: In 2019, the age‐standardized mortality and DALY rates of breast cancer attributable to high BMI were 1.107 (95% UI: 0.311, 2.327) and 29.990 (8.384, 60.713) per 100 000, and mortality and DALY rates attributable to high FPG were 0.519 (0.095, 1.226) and 13.662 (2.482, 32.425) per 100 000. From 1990 to 2019, the age‐standardized mortality and DALY rates of breast cancer attributable to high BMI increased by 1.192% and 1.180%, and the trends of high FPG were not statistically significant. The APC results showed that the age effects of high BMI and high FPG‐mortality and DALY rates increased, with the highest rates in the age group over 80 years. The birth cohort effects of high BMI showed “inverted V” shapes, while high FPG showed downward trends.Conclusions: Age was the main reason for the increase of attributable burden, and postmenopausal women were the high‐risk groups. Therefore, targeted prevention measures should be developed to improve postmenopausal women's awareness and effectively reduce the prevalence of obesity and diabetes, thereby reducing the breast cancer burden caused by metabolic factors in China.

Background: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world’s population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries’ sociodemographic index (SDI).Methods: The BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global.Results: In 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region’s greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r₁₉₉₀= -0.91, p2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate.Conclusions: The BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS’ efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

Stroke is the first leading cause of death in China, and low fruit intake is suggested to be one of the most important risk factors for stroke mortality. However, the trends of stroke mortality attributable to low fruit intake remain unclear in China. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the long-term trends of stroke mortality attributable to low fruit intake by sex in China during 1990–2017. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study; the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis, and the net age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using the age–period–cohort model with an intrinsic estimator algorithm (APC-IE). The crude mortality rates (CMRs) increased for males and decreased for females from 1990 to 2017. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for both males and females showed consecutive significant declines from 1990 to 2017. By APC analysis, substantially increasing age effects were presented from 25 to 79 years for both sexes. The independent period and cohort effects progressively decreased during the entire period for both sexes, with a faster decrease for females than for males. Males and elder groups were the high-risk population for stroke mortality caused by low fruit intake. Although the mortality risk showed a decreasing trend, the fruit intake was still low for the Chinese population. Therefore, effective strategies and global awareness are essential to improve the current situation of low fruit intake, thereby preventing and reducing the stroke mortality risk caused by low fruit intake in China.

Background: The frequent emergence of the re-positive patients with COVID-19 is a potential threat worldwide. This study aimed to describe data from admission to follow-up for patients with COVID-19 and analyze the possible causes for re-positive nucleic acid tests to provide more scientific basis for reducing the numbers of re-positive patients after discharge. Methods: We retrospectively recorded 15 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Xianyang Central Hospital, China. The baseline, exposure histories, clinical syndromes, laboratory characteristics, nucleic acid, and follow-up tests were analyzed, and the radiological characteristics of re-positive patient at different periods were compared. Results: Eight (53.33%) patients had the history of travel to Wuhan, four (26.67%) patients had close contact with confirmed patients, and one (6.67%) patient had close contact with suspected patients. After treatment, all patients had two consecutively negative nucleic acid tests and were discharged from hospital. All patients were followed up for more than 14 days, and the average time from discharge to the first follow-up was 14.67 ± 3.31 days (from 9 to 22 days). Most patients showed no clinical symptoms and negative nucleic acid tests, while one patient had an itchy throat, her CT scan showed a light density shadow in the right lower lobe of the lung, and the nucleic acid was once again positive. The second follow-up of the other 14 patients (except the re-positive one) was conducted 20.80 ± 7.78 days (from 13 to 30 days) after discharge, and all of them had negative nucleic acid tests. The positive patient was immediately readmitted and received a new round of treatment. Her family members and colleagues remained healthy until now. Conclusions: The quality of nucleic acid testing reagents should be enhanced, and the training of nucleic acid sampling operators should be strengthened to reduce the false-negative results in the nucleic acid of SARS-CoV-2; the clinical specimens of throat and nasopharynx swabs can be collected at the same time; IgM- and IgG-specific antibodies of SARS-CoV-2 should be carried out for discharged patients; the radiological characteristics should be evaluated strictly; and the discharge standard can be specified according to the baseline and severity of disease of patients.

This study aimed to identify and compare the mortality trends for road injuries in China and the United States, and evaluate the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to the trends from 1990 to 2014. Using the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study database, the mortality trends were analyzed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling. Overall, the mortality for road injuries was higher in China than in the United States. The mortality in China increased from 1992 to 2002 (annual percent change [APC] was 1.9%), and then decreased from 2002 to 2015 (APC_2002–2009 was 1.5%; APC_2009–2015 was 3.5%). For the United States, the mortality decreased from 1990 to 2010 (APC_1990–1997 was 1.8%; APC_1997–2005 was 0.7%; APC_2005–2010 was 4.2%). Age-period-cohort modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Compared with the period 2002–2004, the period risk ratios (RRs) in 2010–2014 period declined by 14.62% for China and 18.86% for the United States. Compared with the 1955–1959 birth cohort, the cohort RRs for China and the United States in the 2010–2014 cohort reduced by 47.60% and 75.94%, respectively. Period and cohort effects could not be ignored for reducing road injury mortalities.

In this study, we estimated the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on respiratory disease hospitalization in Taiyuan, China. Daily data of respiratory disease hospitalization, daily concentration of ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors from 1 October 2014 to 30 September 2017 in Taiyuan were included in our study. We conducted a time-series study design and applied a generalized additive model to evaluate the association between every 10-μg/m³ increment of air pollutants and percent increase of respiratory disease hospitalization. A total of 127,565 respiratory disease hospitalization cases were included in this study during the present period. In single-pollutant models, the effect values in multi-day lags were greater than those in single-day lags. PM_2.5 at lag02 days, SO₂ at lag03 days, PM₁₀ and NO₂ at lag05 days were observed to be strongly and significantly associated with respiratory disease hospitalization. No significant association was found between O₃ and respiratory disease hospitalization. SO₂ and NO₂ were still significantly associated with hospitalization after adjusting for PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ into two-pollutant models. Females and younger population for respiratory disease were more vulnerable to air pollution than males and older groups. Therefore, some effective measures should be taken to strengthen the management of the ambient air pollutants, especially SO₂ and NO₂, and to enhance the protection of the high-risk population from air pollutants, thereby reducing the burden of respiratory disease caused by ambient air pollution.