Alessio Piatanesi

The great 29 ^th of July 2025 megathrust earthquake of magnitude 8.8, which occurred near the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, generated a local tsunami comparable to that of its larger 1952 predecessor, which, in contrast, caused a larger tsunami along the far-field Pacific shorelines. The 2025 tsunami was also smaller than anticipated by the life-saving tsunami warning issued for the far-field Pacific shorelines. By jointly inverting SWOT and DART tsunami data, InSAR and GNSS data, here we show that the 2025 earthquake rupture occurred within or adjacent to the 1952 source area, with an uncertain degree of overlap. We also show that a smaller tsunami potential energy due to earthquake magnitude and relatively deep slip explains the moderate far-field impact. Conversely, some shallow displacement that reaches the trench explains the enhanced local runup, comparable to the 1952 runup, despite the smaller magnitude of the 2025 earthquake. Our findings are supported by comparisons with previous tsunamis (2010 Maule, Chile, and 2005 Nias, Indonesia).

We present the first rupture models of the two mainshocks of the 2012 northern Italy sequence, determined by jointly inverting seismic and geodetic data. We aim at providing new insights into the mainshocks for which contrasting seismotectonic interpretations are proposed in literature. Sources' geometric parameters were constrained by seismic reflection profiles, 3‐D relocations and focal mechanisms of mainshocks/aftershocks. Site‐specific velocity profiles were used to model accelerograms affected by strong propagation effects related to the Po basin. Our source models differ significantly from previous ones relying on either seismic or geodetic data. Their comparison against geological sections and aftershock distribution provides new insights about the ruptured thrust faults. The May 20th M_w6.1 mainshock activated the Middle Ferrara thrust‐ramp dipping ∼45° SSW‐wards, breaking a main eastern slip patch 4–15 km deep in Mesozoic carbonates (maximum slip 0.7–0.8 m) and Paleozoic‐Triassic basement rocks, and a small western patch in the basement. The May 29th M_w6.0 mainshock featured two separated asperities along the Mirandola thrust‐ramp dipping ∼42° S‐wards: an eastern asperity 4–15 km deep in Mesozoic carbonates and basement rocks (maximum slip 0.7 m) and a deeper western one (7–16 km depth) mainly in the basement (slip peak 0.8 m). On‐fault aftershocks were concentrated within the basement and Mesozoic carbonates, devoiding high‐slip zones. Slip and aftershock distribution was controlled by the rheological transition between Mesozoic carbonates and Cenozoic sediments. Unlike previous thin‐skinned tectonic interpretations, our results point to a complex rupture process along moderately dipping (40°–45°) thrust‐ramps deeply rooted into the Paleozoic crystalline basement.

The SW Iberian margin is one of the most seismogenic and tsunamigenic areas in W‐Europe, where large historical and instrumental destructive events occurred. To evaluate the sensitivity of the tsunami impact on the coast of SW Iberia and NW Morocco to the fault geometry and slip distribution for local earthquakes, we carried out a set of tsunami simulations considering some of the main known active crustal faults in the region: the Gorringe Bank (GBF), Marquês de Pombal (MPF), Horseshoe (HF), North Coral Patch (NCPF) and South Coral Patch (SCPF) thrust faults, and the Lineament South strike‐slip fault. We started by considering for all of them relatively simple planar faults featuring with uniform slip distribution; we then used a more complex 3D fault geometry for the faults constrained with a large 2D multichannel seismic dataset (MPF, HF, NCPF, and SCPF); and finally, we used various heterogeneous slip distributions for the HF. Our results show that using more complex 3D fault geometries and slip distributions, the peak wave height at the coastline can double compared to simpler tsunami source scenarios from planar fault geometries. Existing tsunami hazard models in the region use homogeneous slip distributions on planar faults as initial conditions for tsunami simulations and therefore underestimate tsunami hazard. Complex 3D fault geometries and non‐uniform slip distribution should be considered in future tsunami hazard updates. The tsunami simulations also support the finding that submarine canyons attenuate the wave height reaching the coastline, while submarine ridges and shallow shelves have the opposite effect.

The tsunami source of the 2021 M_W 8.1 Raoul Island earthquake in the Kermadec subduction zone was estimated by inverting the tsunami signals recorded by Deep‐ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) bottom pressure sensors and coastal tide‐gauges. The main asperity of up to 5 m of slip is located northeastward from the hypocenter, with features compatible with the aftershock distribution and rapid back‐projection analysis. Three earthquakes of M_W ∼8 or larger which also produced moderate tsunamis happened in the 20th century in the same portion of the subduction zone. This is the first great tsunamigenic event captured by the new New Zealand DART network in the South West Pacific, which proved valuable to estimate a robust image of the tsunami source. We also show a first proof of concept of the capability of this network to reduce the uncertainty associated with tsunami forecasting and to increase the lead time available for evacuation for future alerts.

The tsunami source of the M _W 8.1 2021 Raoul Island earthquake in the Kermadec subduction zone was estimated by inverting the tsunami signals recorded by DART bottom pressure sensors and coastal tide-gauges. The rupture propagated unilaterally northeastward from the hypocenter with maximum slip value of about 5 m, with features compatible with the aftershock distribution and rapid back-projection analysis. Three earthquakes of Mw ~8 or larger which also produced moderate tsunamis happened in the 20 ^th century in the same portion of the subduction zone. This is the first great tsunamigenic event captured by the new New Zealand DART network in the South West Pacific, which proved valuable to estimate a robust image of the tsunami source. We also show a first proof of concept of the capability of this network to reduce the uncertainty associated with tsunami forecasting and to increase lead time available for evacuation for future alerts.

Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.

Destructive tsunamis are most often generated by large earthquakes occurring at subduction interfaces, but also other “atypical” sources—defined as crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources altogether—may cause significant tsunami threats. Tsunamis may indeed be generated by different sources, such as earthquakes, submarine or coastal landslides, volcano-related phenomena, and atmospheric perturbations. The consideration of atypical sources is important worldwide, but it is especially prominent in complex tectonic settings such as the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, or the Indonesian archipelago. The recent disasters in Indonesia in 2018, caused by the Palu-Sulawesi magnitude Mw 7.5 crustal earthquake and by the collapse of the Anak-Krakatau volcano, recall the importance of such sources. Dealing with atypical sources represents a scientific, technical, and computational challenge, which depends on the capability of quantifying and managing uncertainty efficiently and of reducing it with accurate physical modelling. Here, we first introduce the general framework in which tsunami threats are treated, and then we review the current status and the expected future development of tsunami hazard quantifications and of the tsunami warning systems in Italy, with a specific focus on the treatment of atypical sources. In Italy, where the memory of historical atypical events like the 1908 Messina earthquake or the relatively recent 2002 Stromboli tsunami is still vivid, specific attention has been indeed dedicated to the progressive development of innovative strategies to deal with such atypical sources. More specifically, we review the (national) hazard analyses and their application for coastal planning, as well as the two operating tsunami warning systems: the national warning system for seismically generated tsunamis (SiAM), whose upstream component—the CAT-INGV—is also a Tsunami Service Provider of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) coordinated by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group established by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the local warning system for tsunamis generated by volcanic slides along the Sciara del Fuoco of Stromboli volcano. Finally, we review the state of knowledge about other potential tsunami sources that may generate significant tsunamis for the Italian coasts, but that are not presently considered in existing tsunami warning systems. This may be considered the first step towards their inclusion in the national tsunami hazard and warning programs.

SUMMARY: We investigated the kinematic rupture model of the 2018 Mw 6.8 Zakynthos, Ionian Sea (Greece), earthquake by using a non-linear joint inversion of strong motion data, high-rate GPS time-series and static coseismic GPS displacements. We also tested inversion results against tide-gauge recordings of the small tsunami generated in the Ionian Sea. In order to constrain the fault geometry, we performed several preliminary kinematic inversions by assuming the parameter values resulting from different published moment tensor solutions. The lowest cost function values were obtained by using the geometry derived from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) focal solution. Between the two conjugate USGS planes, the rupture model which better fits the data is the one with the N9°E-striking 39°ESE-dipping plane. The rupture history of this model is characterized by a bilateral propagation, featuring two asperities; a main slip patch extending between 14 and 28 km in depth, 9 km northeast from the nucleation and a slightly shallower small patch located 27 km southwest from the nucleation. The maximum energy release occurs between 8 and 12 s, when both patches are breaking simultaneously. The maximum slip is 1.8 m and the total seismic moment is 2.4 × 1019 Nm, corresponding to a Mw value of 6.8. The slip angle shows a dominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, with a minor reverse component that increases on the deeper region of the fault. This result, in addition to the observed possibility of similar mechanisms for previous earthquakes occurred in 1959 and 1997, suggests that the tectonic deformation between the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone and the northern tip of the Hellenic Arc Subduction zone may be accommodated by prevailing right lateral low-dipping faults, occurring on re-activated structures previously experiencing (until Pliocene) compressional regime. Comparison of predicted and observed tsunami data suggests the need of a better characterization of local harbour response for this type of relatively short-wavelength events, which is important in the context of tsunami early warning. However, the suggested dominantly strike-slip character would in turn imply a reduced tsunami hazard as compared to a dominant thrust faulting regime from this source region.