Christopher M. Clapp

Background: The Evidence-based Policy-Making Act of 2018 requires that Federal agencies use their data to develop statistical evidence to support policy and programmatic decisions. Objective: This study assessed Vocational Rehabilitation agency capacity to effectively use their data to inform evidence-based decision-making. Methods: The Capacity Survey assessed agency capacity in data management, data visualization and statistical analysis. The survey asked for details about (1) the availability of relevant software programs (e.g., SPSS for statistical analysis), and (2) staff expertise to use that software. Results: Results pointed to capacity gaps that would significantly hinder most agencies’ application of even a simplified return on investment model. When examining statistical capacity, 60% of agencies responded “not applicable – staff do not have competence in the listed software packages (including SPSS, SAS, R, Python, Stata, and other)” and 71% of respondents said they lacked internal statistical capacity to analyze data using any of the listed programs. Conclusions: Results suggested that many state VR agencies lack internal capacity to meet requirements outlined in the Evidence-Based Policy-Making Act of 2018 or regulations related to reporting and performance accountability requirements. Potential solutions to overcome capacity deficits include expanding internal capacity, expanding agency/consultant partnerships, and building cross-agency collaborations.

This article contrasts social and taxpayer return on investment measures of the vocational rehabilitation (VR) program in the U.S. state of Virginia. To do this, we use the analyses in prior work which demonstrates substantial social return to Virginia’s VR program. Using this estimated model and administrative data on VR clients in Virginia, we simulate earnings that would be realized with and without VR service receipt by each client and estimate the costs of the services provided to each client. Then, given these simulation results, we compute the taxpayer return on investment. Since most VR recipients have a weak attachment to the labor market (i.e., relatively low employment rates and earnings), the relatively large estimated impact of VR on earnings translates into only a small impact on the taxpayer return. That is, the cost of VR is large relative to the lifetime changes in tax receipt. In particular, we estimate that only 29% of VR recipients have a positive taxpayer return.

This paper contrasts social and taxpayer return on investment measures of the Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) program in Virginia. To do this, we use the analyses in Dean et al. (2015, 2017, 2018) which demonstrate substantial social return to Virginia's VR program. Using this estimated model and administrative data on VR clients in Virginia, we simulate earnings that would be realized before and after VR service receipt by each client and estimate the costs of the services provided to each client. Then, given these simulation results, we compute the taxpayer ROI for the state of Virginia. Since most VR recipients have a weak attachment to the labor market (i.e., relatively low employment rates and earnings), the relatively large estimated impact of VR on earnings translates into only a small impact on the taxpayer return. That is, the cost of VR is large relative to the lifetime changes in tax receipt. For example, while the estimated median annualized rate of return for clients with physical impairments is 174% (Dean et al., 2018), we estimate that only 2.8% of VR recipients with physical impairments have a positive taxpayer return. This finding illustrates why the consensus in the economics literature is that taxpayer rates of return are not appropriate measures of program value.

We construct a structural model of participation in vocational rehabilitation and labor market outcomes for people with vision impairments. There are multiple services to choose among, and each has different effects on employment and earnings. We estimate negative effects for most service types, leading to surprisingly low rates of return to VR service receipt. The negative returns are strongly affected by large administrative costs.

Introduction: This study describes the characteristics of, services received by, and labor market outcomes of applicants with visual impairments to three state vocational rehabilitation programs. Our objective is to both document cross-state variation in vocational rehabilitation clientele and services and provide new insights on the longitudinal labor market outcomes of clients with visual impairments (i.e., blindness or low vision). This analysis is a first step in assessing the returns to vocational rehabilitation services for this population. Methods: We first created a unique longitudinal data set by matching administrative records on applicants who are visually impaired in state fiscal year 2007 from three vocational rehabilitation agencies to 8 years of employment data from state Unemployment Insurance programs. Using these data, we examined cross-state variation in the descriptive statistics for important client explanatory variables and vocational rehabilitation service categories. We then compared the long-term labor market outcomes of clients receiving services (treated) to untreated individuals. Results: We documented two important findings. First, there were substantial differences in client characteristics, services provided, and costs across the three states. Second, the long-run labor market analysis was consistent with vocational rehabilitation services having no employment effect but a positive earnings effect. Discussion: Labor market results indicate vocational rehabilitation services provided persistent earnings benefits. Yet the substantial cross-state heterogeneity suggests these labor market results might not be generalizable and should be interpreted with caution. We explain what was missing from this analysis and why the results should not be thought of as causal. Implications for Practitioners: This article gives practitioners a sense of a unique new data set on vocational rehabilitation and labor market variables for applicants with visual impairments. We highlight the importance of cross-state variation and linking vocational rehabilitation data to long-term employment measures. The question of how best to inform the efficacy of different vocational rehabilitation strategies for clients with visual impairments is left for future researchers to consider.

Current knowledge of the fiscal impacts of alternative land uses comes largely from cost of community services (CCS) case studies, the results of which are viewed skeptically in the literature due to methodological concerns. To address these issues, we develop an econometric approach that allows us to capture both the direct and indirect relationships between a complete accounting of community fiscal measures and the full distribution of acres of land uses in a jurisdiction. Using a novel panel data set, we extensively document empirical correlations that have not yet been formally established in the literature. Our results are inconsistent with the broad conclusions of CCS studies: neither a shift from agricultural to residential land nor a shift to commercial land is associated with a significant change in the budget. We provide support for and insights into our results by extending our analysis to finer revenue/expenditure and land-use subcategories.

Current knowledge of the fiscal impacts of alternative land uses comes largely from cost of community services (CCS) case studies, the results of which are viewed skeptically in the literature because of numerous methodological concerns. In order to begin to fill the gap in our understanding of these impacts, we provide the first empirical estimates of the relationship between a complete accounting of community fiscal measures and the full distribution of acres of land uses in the jurisdiction. We find evidence in support of the broad conclusions of CCS studies: a shift from agricultural to residential land is associated with a deficit, whereas a shift to commercial land is correlated with a surplus. We provide insights into which revenue/expenditure and land use subcategories are responsible for these results.

Using panel data of MLB team attendance from 1950 to 2002, we determined that the attendance “honeymoon” effect of a new stadium—after separating quality-of-play effects—increases attendance by 32% to 37% the opening year of a new stadium. Attendance remains above baseline levels for only two seasons for multipurpose stadiums built during 1960 to 1974 but for 6 to 10 seasons at newer ballparks. Contrary to expectations, there is no systematic interaction between new venues and team performance on attendance or stadium revenues. This noncomplementarity implies that a profit-maximizing team owner would not use a new stadium’s revenue stream to increase team quality of play.