Jose D. Carriquiry

The Baja California Peninsula is one of the most arid regions in Mexico, receiving an average of only 168 mm of precipitation annually. Climate change scenarios project drier and warmer conditions in the region at the end of this century driven by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The growing demand for limited water supplies and the impacts of climate change pose a challenge to manage the already scarce water resources in the Peninsula. Analysis of historical hydroclimatic variability in the Peninsula is limited because most of the early instrumental climate data collection started only in the 1950s. In this study, we reconstruct past precipitation variability for the Peninsula using two tree ring chronologies from northern (Pinus monophylla) and southern (Pinus lagunae) Baja California. Our two reconstructions document multicentury hydroclimatic variability in the Peninsula, including events that turned out to be more extreme than those captured by modern instrumental records. Drought episodes are longer, more frequent, and more intense in the northern peninsula compared to the southern region. Multiyear dry and wet events in our two reconstructions exhibit broad spatial extent, affecting most of northwest Mexico and the western United States, which are mainly caused by broad‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results of this study allow framing current and projected droughts in a longer‐term context, thus providing a better understanding of past climate variability and a basis for robust water resource management in the region.

Although most simulation models published have concluded that coastal upwelling will intensify in three of the most productive marine ecosystems of the world, the results seem contradictory for the California Current System (CCS). These contradictory results may be due to the fact that instrumental records are too short to yield reliable predictions. Because of this, we opted to test this hypothesis by studying the sedimentary record of Soledad basin, in Baja California, Mexico, using geochemical proxies to reconstruct at ultra-high resolution the history of productivity and sea surface temperature during the last two millennia, with particular emphasis on the Anthropocene. Our results indicate that SST (alkenones and TEX-86) do not show a cooling trend during the Anthropocene, but rather multidecadal cycles related to PDO. Likewise, primary productivity organic biomarkers [i.e., alkenone concentration (C37 Total) as a proxy for phytoplankton productivity, etc] show an increasing trend that started 2000 years ago with prominent multidecadal cycles, but without any observable trend taking place during the Anthropocene. An interesting feature of the organic matter record is the increasing amplitude of the cycles towards the present, starting 2000 years ago. Primary productivity is probably controlled by large scale mesoscale eddies developing at the southern Baja California margin.

Changes in marine primary productivity (MPP) over the 21st century are expected to occur under the prevailing climate change scenario. For better understanding of past climate variability, we reconstructed MPP at high resolution (~1-2 years) for the past 2000 years analyzing biogenic silica and total organic carbon (TOC %) on a sediment core collected from Soledad Basin (25°N, 112°W), Baja  California, Mexico. Located in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific, this suboxic basin is ideal for palaeoceanographic reconstructions due to its high sedimentation rate (2 mm/year), which allow us to reconstruct past changes in the ocean and climate at high resolution. Our results show an increasing trend in the variability of MPP for the past 2000 years: biogenic silica content does not show a well-defined trend, but rather it is dominated by strong multidecadal and prominent centennial-scale cycles while TOC (%) shows a slight increasing trend towards the present, starting at least 2000 years ago. Spectral analysis confirms the presence of multidecadal to centennial cycles. These results will be discussed in the context of the Anthropocene and natural climate variability.

Geologic carbon from seafloor volcanism may influence late Pleistocene glacial terminations by increasing the global inventory of the greenhouse gas CO₂. However, the evidence for geologic carbon flux associated with deep sea volcanism has been, so far, equivocal. Here, we construct a regional, glacial‐deglacial carbon budget of the volcanically active Gulf of California using microfossil ¹⁴C measurements and find results consistent with an increased addition of geologic carbon related to local seafloor volcanism during the deglaciation. Our estimates point to enhanced geologic carbon flux both before and during the last deglaciation that generally occur alongside carbonate preservation. This leads us to suggest that the carbon was added in the form of partially neutralized, ¹⁴C‐free bicarbonate associated with known Gulf sedimentary processes—a carbon source that would have a minimal effect on atmospheric CO₂.

Corals in the Eastern Pacific extend south from the Gulf of California to Ecuador and oceanic Chile, and west from Colombia to Clipperton Atoll. Nevertheless, large stretches of the Mexican Pacific remain fundamentally unstudied. Therefore, to assess the current conditions of coral communities, a coastal fringe ∼300 km long (17°40′ N, 101°39′ W to 16°46′ N, 99°49′ W) was surveyed within the Southern Mexican Pacific, between 2005 and 2009. Fifteen stony coral species were identified at 13 coral communities and six Pocillopora‐dominated fringing reefs, with Pocillopora verrucosa and Pocillopora damicornis the primary contributing taxa. Reef development was identified in embayments or behind rocks or islands that offered shelter from northern and northwestern winds. Observations of Pocillopora effusus, Pocillopora inflata, Porites lobata, Pavona clavus, and Pavona varians expanded the species known geographic ranges by several degrees of latitude, suggesting reef building fauna comprised a mixture of widespread and relatively rare Eastern Pacific corals. Results indicated greater live coral cover in the Ixtapa‐Zihuatanejo area (15–73%) than in the Acapulco localities, which had high algal dominance; the reefs in the latter region exhibited high erosion. Regional differences are likely the result of long‐standing anthropogenic pressures around Acapulco since 1950, when it became an important tourist destination. This paper is the first detailed report of ecologically stressed corals and coral reefs from the state of Guerrero on the Mexican Southern Pacific coast.