Boris Braun

The 2021 European floods were among the most destructive in recent decades, highlighting the importance of understanding how disruptive events shape risk perception and preparedness across multiple hazards, especially under climate change. This study examines how this flood affected risk perception and preparedness among 584 residents in Leverkusen, a city in the Rhine catchment severely impacted by the event. Using a standardised survey, it tests a priori hypotheses derived from cross-over literature and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), complemented by exploratory analyses of specific hazard pairs and preparedness behaviours. Results show that retrospectively reported risk perception increased across all assessed hazards after the flood, indicating clear crossover effects: experience with one hazard also influenced perceptions of other hazards, with direct heavy-rain experience affecting all hazards, and indirect experiences led to broader effects. Consistent with key elements of PMT, direct flood experience was the strongest indicator of protective installations, whereas indirect experience was mainly linked to higher knowledge about natural hazards and flood protection. Survey responses suggest higher perceived risk and knowledge after the 2021 flood, but changes in protection and behaviour remained limited. The study contributes to empirical evidence of cross-over effects in an urban, multi-hazard context several years after a major flood, where direct and indirect experiences shape perception and preparedness differently, highlighting the need for targeted communication to support adaptation after disruptive flood events.

Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been widely acknowledged as a long-term challenge that threatens large numbers of coastal areas. Yet, extreme sea-level rise (ESLR) often has an even more immediate impact on planning local coastal defense infrastructure. This is also the case for the German North Sea islands, including Norderney and Borkum. Existing studies often lack detailed localized projections and comprehensive assessments, creating a gap in precise impact estimation and stakeholder engagement. Understanding stakeholder perceptions of urgency is critical for informed decision-making. This article aims to address this gap by providing high-resolution ESLR projections and examining the perceptions and priorities of different stakeholder groups on these islands. A hybrid modeling approach, integrating physical and geostatistical components, was employed to project ESLR for the years 2050 and 2100 under various Representative Concentration Pathways. Furthermore, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from tourism, politics, administration, and environmental management were conducted to capture the range of attitudes and concerns regarding ESLR and related adaptation measures. The results indicate a potential sea level rise of more than 2 meters for Norderney and Borkum by 2100. Yet, stakeholder interviews reveal a wide disparity in perceptions; environmental actors express high urgency, while others, particularly among those in the tourism sector, see ESLR as a more distant concern, leading to a reduced motivation for immediate action as other, more pressing short-term challenges are prioritized. Our findings highlight the need for policy strategies that integrate economic and environmental goals, ensuring effective adaptation measures that address both current and future challenges.

Societal Impact Statement: In the context of multiple crises, policymakers and practitioners prioritize the solving of certain challenges above others. In this context, supposedly purely environmental challenges like biodiversity loss have often been deprioritized and solutions to tackle them are publicly or quietly postponed (again and again). An example is the postponement of the EU “nature conservation package” in view of the threat of food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine. The following arguments outline why biodiversity loss is not only an environmental challenge but also a global societal challenge to safeguard global food security and why postponing biodiversity measures is not only bad for biodiversity but can also endanger food security itself.Summary: Food security and biodiversity are often counterbalanced. However, we argue that preserving global biodiversity is crucial to safeguarding food security. We first generally outline that biodiversity can (1) support agricultural production, (2) mitigate negative effects of pollution, and (3) provide livelihood outcomes. We then, in particular, argue that biodiversity (4) provides diverse diets to fight hidden hunger, (5) is crucial for resilience against future food security risks, (6) is a precondition for future genetic modifications, (7) addresses the diversity of cultures, income and diets, and (8) is important for place‐sensitive food production. We conclude that “stop hunger first, then worry about diversity afterward” is not a sustainable option.

The food system plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Even if fossil fuel emissions are halted immediately, current trends in global food systems may prevent the achieving of the Paris Agreement’s climate targets. The high degree of variability and uncertainty involved in calculating diet-related greenhouse gas emissions limits the ability to evaluate reduction potentials to remain below a global warming of 1.5 or 2 degrees. This study assessed Western European dietary patterns while accounting for uncertainty and variability. An extensive literature review provided value ranges for climate impacts of animal-based foods to conduct an uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting carbon footprints were assessed against food system-specific greenhouse gas emission thresholds. The range and absolute value of a diet carbon footprint become larger the higher the amount of products with highly varying emission values in the diet. All dietary pattern carbon footprints overshoot the 1.5 degrees threshold. The vegan, vegetarian, and diet with low animal-based food intake were predominantly below the 2 degrees threshold. Omnivorous diets with more animal-based product content trespassed them. Reducing animal-based foods is a powerful strategy to decrease emissions. However, further mitigation strategies are required to achieve climate goals.

Tidal flood risk threatens coastal urban areas and their agriculture and aquaculture, including salt farming. There is, therefore, an urgency to map and portray risk to reduce casualties and loss. In the floodplain of Cirebon, West Java, where salt farming dominates the landscape, this type of flooding has frequently occurred and disrupted the local economy. Based on two recorded events in 2016 and 2018 as benchmarks, this paper formulates an innovative approach to analyze tidal flood risk in salt farming areas. Our study considers the fundamental concepts of hazard and vulnerability, then uses selective parameters for evaluation in an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)-based Geographic Information System. The analytical process includes weighting criteria judged by experts and uses the resulting values to define the spatial characteristics of each salt parcel. Our high-resolution simulations show that the two flood events in 2016 and 2018 affected almost all salt production areas, particularly in the eastern, middle, and western parts of the Cirebon floodplain, although to very different degrees. The study also uses a physical-based approach to validate these results. The damage estimates show a strong positive correlation for economic loss (r = 0.81, r = 0.84). Finally, the study suggests that our multi-methods approach to assessing tidal flood risk should be considered in disaster mitigation planning and integrated coastal zone management in salt farming areas.

The main objective of this paper is to measure the level of household resilience to cyclone and storm surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. We draw on four general disaster frameworks in terms of addressing household-level resilience to cyclones and storm surges. We use a composite indicator approach organized around four components: (1) household infrastructure (HI); (2) household economic capacity (HEC); (3) household self-organization and learning (HSoL), and; (4) social safety nets (SSN). Drawing on a household survey (N = 1188) in nine coastal union parishads in coastal Bangladesh purposively selected as among the most vulnerable places in the world, we use principal components analysis applied to a standardized form of the survey data that identifies key household resilience features. These household index scores can be used for the assessment and monitoring of household capacities, training, and other efforts to improve household cyclone resilience. Our innovative methodological approach allows us to (a) identify patterns and reveal the underlying factors that accurately describe the variation in the data; (b) reduce a large number of variables to a much smaller number of core dimensions of household resilience, and (c) to detect spatial variations in resilience among communities. Aggregated to the community level, our new index reveals significant differences in community cyclone resilience in different areas of the coastal region. In this way, we can show that shoreline and island communities, in particular, have significant deficits in terms of household resilience, which seem to be mutually reinforcing one another and making for lower resilience.

The number of tidal flood events has been increasing in Indonesia in the last decade, especially along the north coast of Java. Hydrodynamic models in combination with Geographic Information System applications are used to assess the impact of high tide events upon the salt production in Cirebon, West Java. Two major flood events in June 2016 and May 2018 were selected for the simulation within inputs of tidal height records, national seamless digital elevation dataset of Indonesia (DEMNAS), Indonesian gridded national bathymetry (BATNAS), and wind data from OGIMET. We used a finite method on MIKE 21 to determine peak water levels, and validation for the velocity component using TPXO9 and Tidal Model Driver (TMD). The benchmark of the inundation is taken from the maximum water level of the simulation. This study utilized ArcGIS for the spatial analysis of tidal flood distribution upon solar salt production area, particularly where the tides are dominated by local factors. The results indicated that during the peak events in June 2016 and May 2018, about 83% to 84% of salt ponds were being inundated, respectively. The accurate identification of flooded areas also provided valuable information for tidal flood assessment of marginal agriculture in data-scarce region.

This study aims to assess the impact of high tide upon salt production areas in north part of Java, Indonesia. Single case in June 2016 was applied using MIKE 21 in salt production area of Cirebon. The inputs are tidal height records, bathymetry, digital elevation model (DEM) from Geospatial Information Agency (GIA), and wind data from OGIMET. Peak water level from tidal constituent is extracted from the simulation. The exposed that were generated from peak level of water elevation showed that tidal event has led to 82.9% of salt production area being inundated. West and east part are recorded as the most affected location due to this extreme event. The maximum water level has reached about 38 cm and covered more than 6,489.38 ha during the tide. Whilst the accurate identification will provide valuable information for flood assessment upon marginal agriculture in coastal area.

Discussions of climate migration have recognized the need for probabilistic, systematic, and empirical analyses. We examine the importance of environmental stressors in migration using a multi-leveled analysis of a household survey of the climate-stressed rural communities of coastal Bangladesh. We find that a relatively small share (6.5%) of rural coastal people have migrated, overwhelmingly domestically and on a temporary basis. The main motives are better employment opportunities in urban areas, marriage/family reunification, and education. About a third are displaced by flooding that created loss of arable land. Being male, younger, and working outside of agriculture facilitate migration, and also those with greater human and horizontal social capital are more likely to migrate. Exposure to severe river erosion, residing closer to major waterways and in saltwater shrimp farming zones spur migration. Climate migration is in its first instance economic-induced with environmental stress contributing as a secondary factor.

Socio-technical transitions towards more sustainable modes of production and consumption are receiving increasing attention in the academic world and also from political and economic decision-makers. There is increasing demand for resource-efficient technologies and institutional innovations, particularly at the city level. However, it is widely unclear how processes of change evolve and develop and how they are embedded in different socio-spatial contexts. While numerous scholars have contributed to the vibrant research field around sustainability transitions, the geographical expertise largely has been ignored. The lack of knowledge about the role of spatial contexts, learning processes, and the co-evolution of technological, economical, and socio-political processes has been prominently addressed. Bridging approaches from Transition Studies and perspectives of Economic Geography, the paper presents conceptual ideas for an evolutionary and relational understanding of urban sustainability transitions. The paper introduces new perspectives on sustainability transitions towards a better understanding of socio-spatial contexts.