Matthias Blum

Number of occupational medicine training qualifications at a record high, with an ongoing upward trend in occupational medicine training The field of occupational medicine in Germany is experiencing a continuous increase, with record numbers in specialist qualifications and high demand for courses. Therefore, there is a good prospect that the predicted shortage of qualified physicians can be averted, thanks to the effective lateral entry pathways and the attractiveness of the specialty. However, there remains a need for reforms and innovative adjustments in healthcare provision.

How do famines shape the health of survivors? We examine the long‐term impact of the Great Irish Famine (1845–52) on human stature, distinguishing between adverse scarring effects and the apparent resilience of survivors due to selection. Using anthropometric data from more than 14500 individuals born before, during, and after this famine, we find that selection effects were most pronounced in areas with the highest mortality rates. Individuals born in severely affected regions exhibited no evidence of stunted growth, indicating that the Famine disproportionately eliminated the most vulnerable. In contrast, stunting is observed only in areas with lower excess mortality, where selective pressures were weaker. These findings contribute to debates on the biological consequences of extreme catastrophic risks, demonstrating how selection effects can obscure long‐term health deterioration. More broadly, our study provides a methodological framework for assessing selection in historical anthropometric research.

What is the health impact of famines on survivors? We use a population exposed to severe famine conditions during infancy to document two opposing effects. The first: exposure leads to poor health into adulthood, a scarring effect. The second: survivors do not themselves suffer health consequences, a selection effect. Anthropometric evidence on over 21,000 subjects born before, during and after the Great Irish Famine (1845-52), among modern history’s most severe famines, suggests selection is strongest where mortality is highest. Individuals born in heavily-affected areas experienced no measurable stunted growth; scarring was found only where excess mortality was low.

We construct long-run sustainability indicators based on changes in Comprehensive Wealth - which we refer to as Genuine Savings (GS) - for Germany over the period 1850-2000. We find that German sustainability indicators are positive for the most part, although they are negative during and after the two World Wars and also the Great Depression. We also test the relationship between these wealth changes and a number of measures of well-being over the long-run: changes in consumption as well as changes in average height and infant mortality rates. We find a positive relationship between GS and our well-being indicators over different time horizons, however, the relationship breaks down during WWII. We also test if the GS/Comprehensive Wealth framework is able to cope with massive disinvestment at the end of the Second World War due to war-related destructions and dismantlement. We find that negative rates of GS were by and large avoided due to the accumulation of technology and growth-friendly institutions. We demonstrate the importance of broader measures of capital, including measures of technological progress, and its role in the process of economic development; and the limits of conventional measures of investment to understand why future German consumption did not collapse.

Age‐heaping‐based numeracy indicators have served as valuable tools to derive basic human capital estimates, especially for periods where other indicators are unavailable. However, the accuracy of individual age statements usually remains unknown, and due to the lack of precise information it can only be assumed that excessive occurrence of multiples of five in age distributions reflects inferior numerical skills. This article addresses this lacuna by identifying 162 individuals in two independent data sources: self‐reported age statements and independently kept records which are based on family heritage books and church registers. This method makes it possible to identify individual misreporting and the degree of accuracy of each individual. Findings show that not everyone who reported a multiple of five was reporting an incorrect age, nor was it the case that everyone who reported an age that was not a multiple of five was reporting an accurate age. The empirical analysis shows that the commonly used binary numeracy indicator is correlated with the observed degree of accuracy in age statements, and that a more sophisticated occupational background reduces this inaccuracy. These results tentatively suggest that the commonly used binary indicator measuring age heaping is a valuable proxy for numerical skills and occupational background in a population.

The large-scale persecution of European Jews during the Second World War generated massive refugee movements. We study the last wave of Holocaust refugees with a newly compiled dataset of mostly Jewish passengers from several European countries traveling from Lisbon to New York between 1940 and 1942. We find that both refugee and nonrefugee passengers were positively selected, but nonrefugees were even more so, suggesting it was predominantly the European elite who escaped the Holocaust during this period. In spite of the unique circumstances of this historical setting, this episode of migration displays well-known selection features: both refugees and nonrefugees are positively selected, and earlier passengers are more positively selected than later passengers, and economic barriers to migration apply.

This chapter traces the long-run development of genuine savings (GS) during the twentieth century using a panel of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) and resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) representing approximately 50% of the world’s output in terms of GDP by 1950. It includes large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, allowing comparison of their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, there is evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two world wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks, but also striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when total factor productivity is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer’s access to formal credit. This study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory, particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market, education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural financing.